SHI Xiaoliang,YANG Zhiyong,Lü Jie,et al.Hydrological Response to Climate Change in Luanhe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(02):123-127.
滦河流域气候变化的水文响应研究
- Title:
- Hydrological Response to Climate Change in Luanhe River Basin
- Keywords:
- climate change; SWAT model; runoff; Luanhe River Basin
- 分类号:
- P339;P467
- 摘要:
- 以滦河流域为研究区，基于未来气候变化研究成果建立了16种气候变化情景，结合SWAT分布式水文模型模拟了不同气候变化情景下的水文过程，对滦河流域气候变化的水文响应进行了分析。结果表明：SWAT模型可以较好地模拟滦河流域的月流量过程，在研究区具有较好的适用性；流域气温升高将会导致蒸发量增加、径流减少。在以升温为主、降水变化存在很大不确定性的情况下，滦河流域径流量可能进一步衰减。在未来降水增加的情况下，流域年均地表径流增加趋势的空间差异显著，尤其是流域下游的迁西县等地增加幅度超过12 mm，研究结果将为变化环境下滦河流域的水资源管理提供参考。
- Abstract:
- Taking the Luanhe River Basin as the research area, we constructed a total of sixteen climate change scenarios on the basis of the previous studies in the context of future climate change in Haihe River Basin. With the distributed hydrological model of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), the monthly streamflow in the study area was simulated, and the hydrological response to climate change was evaluated. The results showed that the calibrated SWAT model was able to well simulate the monthly flows and thus extensively applicable in the Luanhe River Basin. Besides, temperature rising might resulted in increased evaporation and decreased runoff. Therefore, the runoff in the Luanhe River Basin could be further deteriorating under the changing climate that is characterized by rising in temperature and the uncertainty in precipitation trends. Under the climate scenario with increased precipitation, the increase trend of average annual surface runoff had significantly spatial variability, especially in the downstream of the basin, including Qianxi County etc. The results would be greatly helpful for providing some references for water resources management under the changing environment in Luanhe River Basin.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2015-04-08;改回日期:2015-05-01。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51409204）；陕西省教育厅科学研究计划资助项目（15JK1473）；西安科技大学博士启动金资助项目（2014QDJ039）
作者简介:史晓亮(1985-),男,陕西宝鸡人,讲师,研究方向:遥感与地理信息系统在水文学中的应用。E-mail:s_xiaoliang@126.com
通讯作者:杨志勇(1979-),男,湖南常德人,高级工程师,主要从事水文水资源、分布式水文模拟,气候变化对水资源影响等基础研究。E-mail:yangzy@iwhr.com