ZHANG Xiao-xiao,ZHANG Yu,XU Hao-jie.Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation in the Bailong River Basin during 1961—2010[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(04):238-245.
1961—2010年白龙江流域气温和降水量变化特征研究
- Title:
- Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation in the Bailong River Basin during 1961—2010
- Keywords:
- Bailong River; climate change; tendency; mutation; period
- 分类号:
- P467
- 摘要:
- 以1961—2010年白龙江流域气温和降水量资料为基础，综合运用线性趋势分析、多项式回归、Mann-Kendall趋势性检测和突变分析、复Morlet小波分析和R/S分析等数理统计方法，在季节和年际尺度上研究了气温和降水量的趋势性、波动性、突变性、周期性和持续性。结果表明：在研究时段内四季和年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势，20世纪80年代中期之前升温缓慢，90年代以来升温速率明显加快并发生暖突变。年降水量呈“多—少—多—少”的波动变化，整体微弱减少。春季和冬季降水量分别呈“多—少—多”和“少—多—少”变化，整体微弱增加。夏季和秋季分别呈“多—少—多—少”和“多—少”变化，整体微弱减少。气温和降水量存在7，11，22 a左右的准周期变化。未来一段时间内，四季和年平均气温将可能继续升高，夏季和冬季降水量将可能增加，而春季、秋季和年降水量将可能减少。
- Abstract:
- Based on temperature and precipitation datasets in the Bailong River basin during 1961—2010, the seasonal and inter-annual variation characteristics including tendency, fluctuation, mutation, period and persistence of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by using linear tendency and polynomial regression model, Mann-Kendall test, complex Morlet wavelet and R/S analysis. The results showed that the seasonal and annual mean temperature had a significant increasing trend during 1961—2010; the weak warming trend was detected before mid-1980s; the increasing rate of temperature was accelerated after a warming mutation in 1990s; the annual precipitation mainly experienced ‘high—low—high—low’ fluctuations. The seasonal precipitation had similar fluctuations except for the winter. The precipitation increased weakly in the spring and winter, while decreased insignificantly in the summer, autumn and year. The temperature and precipitation had periodic variation of 7, 11, 22 a.The potential trend of seasonal and annual mean temperature would persistent. The precipitation in the summer and winter will increase, but decrease in the spring, autumn and year in the near future.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2013-09-12;改回日期:2013-10-03。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“黑河上游土壤水文异质性观测试验及其对山区水文过程的影响”（91125010）
作者简介:张晓晓(1988-),女,黑龙江齐齐哈尔人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为工程水文学。E-mail:xxzhang2011@lzu.edu.cn
通讯作者:张钰(1963-),男,甘肃平凉人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为水资源规划论证评价和水土保持。E-mail:gszhangyu@126.com