[1]高峰,蔡万园,张玉虎,等.5种CMIP5模拟降水数据在中国的适用性评估[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):122-130,138.
　GAO Feng,CAI Wanyuan,ZHANG Yuhu,et al.Evaluation on the Applicability of 5 Kinds of CMIP5 Simulated Precipitation Data in China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):122-130,138.
点击复制

5种CMIP5模拟降水数据在中国的适用性评估

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 24 期数: 2017年06期 页码: 122-130,138 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-11-24
Title:
Evaluation on the Applicability of 5 Kinds of CMIP5 Simulated Precipitation Data in China
作者:
高峰1, 蔡万园2, 张玉虎1, 雷晓辉3, 夏富强4
1. 首都师范大学 资源环境与旅游学院, 北京 100048;
2. 北京大学 地球与空间科学学院遥感与地理信息系统研究所, 北京 100871;
3. 中国水利水电科学研究院 水资源研究所, 北京 100038
Author(s):
GAO Feng1, CAI Wanyuan2, ZHANG Yuhu1, LEI Xiaohui3, XIA Fuqiang4
1. College of Resources, Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;
2. Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
关键词:
气候变化; CMIP5模式; 干旱指数; 系统评估; 干旱时空特征; 水资源管理
Keywords:
climate change; CMIP5 model; drought index; systematic assessment; spatial and temporal characteristics of drought; water resources management
分类号:
P426.6
摘要:
受气候变化影响，水资源短缺现象严重，自然灾害频发。对未来水资源状况进行有效的预测和评估，可为水资源合理配置工作提供理论及决策参考。全球气候模式是大尺度模拟预测未来降水的主要手段，但模式数据的模拟质量及其在不同研究区适用性需要进行系统评估。研究以1971-2000年2 474个气象站点监测降水数据为基准，对5种CMIP5模式模拟降水数据（0.5°×0.5°分辨率）进行系统性评估，分析CMIP5模式模拟降水数据在中国区的适用性。对比分析了1971-2000年间5种CMIP5模式模拟降水数据与中国地面监测降水数据所反映的中国降水趋势变化的时间和空间特征，对CMIP5模式模拟月降水数据进行经验校正，在数据相关性、误差和趋势一致性3个角度，采用相关系数（r），偏差均值（DAVE），相对绝对误差（ERA）和均方根误差（ERMS）4个指标和Seasonal Kendall （SK）趋势检验方法，从时间变化和空间分布特征两个角度，对校正后的CMIP5模式模拟降水数据在中国区域的数据质量进行系统评估。5种CMIP5模式模拟中国区年降水高于监测数据均超过20%，通过经验校正，在保证年降水不发生变化的情况下，使模拟降水数据与监测数据在逐月的相关性大大提高，误差大大降低。对5种模式模拟数据的综合评价显示，最适合模拟中国区降水的模式是HadGEM2-ES模式。对模式数据的系统性评估，为研究合理选择、校正和使用CMIP5数据集提供理论和技术参考。
Abstract:
Affected by climate change, water shortage is serious and natural disasters occurring frequently. Effective forecasting and assessment on the future state of water resources will provide theoretical and decision-making reference for the rational allocation of water resources. Global climate models are the main means of large-scale simulation and prediction for future precipitation. However, the quality of model data and the suitability of different research area need a systematic assessment. Based on the monitoring precipitation data from 2474 meteorological stations during the period from 1971 to 2000 in China, we performed the systematic assessment on the simulated precipitation data from five CMIP5 models (0.5°×0.5° resolution), and analyzed applicability of the simulated precipitation data of CMIP5 model in China. Comparative analysis was conducted to detect the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation trend of precipitation data of five CMIP5 model and meteorological stations in China from 1971-2000. Empirical correction on monthly precipitation data from CMIP5 models was conducted and systematic assessment of data quality of the corrected data was also performed using the correlation coefficient (r), the average deviation (DAVE), relative absolute Error (ERA) and the root mean square error (ERMS) indicators in aspects of data consistency and the ability to describe the trend for China region. Annual precipitation simulated from five CMIP5 models in China was higher than the monitoring data by more than 20%, however, by empirical correction, the error of monthly precipitation data with monitoring data was greatly reduced. Results of evaluation for five CMIP5 models show that the most suitable model for China is HadGEM2-ES model. Systematic assessment for model data can provide theoretical and technical reference for the rational choice, correction and application of CMIP5 data set.

参考文献/References:

[1] 陈晓晨. CMIP5全球气候模式对中国降水模拟能力的评估[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2014.
[2] 张武龙,张井勇,范广洲. CMIP5模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟和预估[J].大气科学,2015,39(3):559-570.
[3] Meehl G A, Covey C, McAvaney B, et al. Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005,86(1):89-93.
[4] Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2012,93(4):485-498.
[5] Huo-Po C, Jian-Qi S U N, Xiao-Li C. Future changes of drought and flood events in China under a global warming scenario[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2013,6(1):8-13.
[6] Kharin V V, Zwiers F W, Zhang X, et al. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013,119(2):345-357.
[7] Zhang X, Tang Q, Zhang X, et al. Runoff sensitivity to global mean temperature change in the CMIP5 Models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014,41(15):5492-5498.
[8] Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2012,93(4):485-498.
[9] 许崇海,沈新勇,徐影. IPCC AR4模式对东亚地区气候模拟能力的分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(5):287-292.
[10] 刘敏,江志红.13个IPCC AR4模式对中国区域近40a气候模拟能力的评估[J].南京气象学院学报,2009,32(2):256-268.
[11] 鲁向晖,白桦,吕娅,等.江西省历史气象分析及未来气候变化预测[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(4):293-297.
[12] 许崇海,罗勇,徐影.全球气候模式对中国降水分布时空特征的评估和预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):398-404.
[13] Xu Y, Xu C H. Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J]. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett.,2012,5(6):489-494.
[14] 梁丰,刘丹丹,王婉昭,等.1961-2013年东北地区夏季降水变化趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(4):67-73.
[15] 陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等. CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.
[16] 李振朝,韦志刚,吕世华,等. CMIP5部分模式气温和降水模拟结果在北半球及青藏高原的检验[J].高原气象,2013,32(4):921-928.
[17] Shen Yan. Interpolation Methods of China Daily Precipitation Data[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2010(3):279-286.
[18] 沈艳,冯明农,张洪政,等.我国逐日降水量格点化方法[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):279-286.
[19] Zhao Y, Zhu J, Xu Y. Establishment and assessment of the grid precipitation datasets in China for recent 50 years[J]. J. Meteorol. Sci., 2014,34:414-420.
[20] 赵煜飞,朱江,许艳.近50a中国降水格点数据集的建立及质量评估[J].气象科学,2014,34(4):414-420.
[21] Piani C, Weedon G P, Best M, et al. Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010,395(S3/4):199-215.
[22] Hagemann S, Chen C, Haerter J O, et al. Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2011,12(4):556-578.
[23] Shepard D. A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data[C]//ACM National Conference. ACM,1968:517-524.
[24] Watson D F. A refinement of inverse distance weighted interpolation[J]. Geo-Processing, 1985,2:315-327.
[25] 曾红伟,李丽娟,张永萱,等.大样本降水空间插值研究:以2009年中国年降水为例[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):811-818.
[26] 李正泉,吴尧祥.顾及方向遮蔽性的反距离权重插值法[J].测绘学报,2015,44(1):91-98.
[27] Xu Z X, Takeuchi K, Ishidaira H. Monotonic trend and step changes in Japanese precipitation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2003,279(1/4):144-150.
[28] Yu Y S, Zou S, Whittemore D. Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1993,150(1):61-80.
[29] Kahya E, KalayclS. Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2004,289(1/4):128-144.
[30] 符淙斌,马柱国.全球变化与区域干旱化[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):752-760.

相似文献/References:

[1]南峰,李有利,史兴民.新疆玛纳斯河水量波动与气候变化之间的关系[J].水土保持研究,2003,10(03):59.
　NAN Feng,LI You-li,SHI Xing-min.Relationship of the Fluctuations of Stream Discharge of the Manas River and Climatic Changes[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2003,10(06):59.
[2]郑粉莉,刘元保,白红英,等.森林植被破坏对生态环境的影响[J].水土保持研究,1993,(01):99.
　Zheng Fenli,Liu Yuanbao,Bai Hongying,et al.Effect of Forest Vegetation Destruction on Eco-Environment[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1993,(06):99.
[3]郭宗锋,马友鑫,李红梅,等.1959-2000年流沙河流域降水与径流变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(04):150.
　GUO Zong-feng,MA You-xin,LI Hong-mei,et al.Research on Variation of Precipitation and Runoff in the Liushahe Watershed in 1959～2000[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(06):150.
[4]李昭阳,李雪,汤洁,等.吉林省辽河流域土地利用对气候变化的响应研究[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(06):104.
　LI Zhao-yang,LI Xue,TANG Jie,et al.Study on the Response of Land Use/Land Cover to Climate Change in Liao River Basin of Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(06):104.
[5]李成,王让会,黄进.天山北麓近50年气温和降水的变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(06):117.
　LI Cheng,WANG Rang-hui,HUANG Jin.Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation in the North of Tianshan Mountains in Recent 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(06):117.
[6]顾海敏,史建桥,邹长新,等.气候变化对开都河流域径流的影响研究[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(06):135.
　GU Hai-min,SHI Jian-qiao,ZOU Chang-xin,et al.Study on the Effect of Climate Change on Runoff in Kaidu River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(06):135.
[7]刘旭辉,余新晓,赵阳.北京山区典型小流域景观格局变化对径流的影响[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(05):39.
　LIU Xu-hui,YU Xin-xiao,ZHAO Yang.Impact of Landscape Pattern on Runoff in Small Watershed of Beijing Mountainous Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(06):39.
[8]任景全,郭春明,李建平,等.气候变化背景下吉林省风蚀气候侵蚀力时空特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):233.
　REN Jingquan,GUO Chunming,LI Jianping,et al.Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Wind Erosion Climatic Erosivity Under Climate Change in Jilin Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):233.
[9]张富广,曾彪,杨太保.近30年祁连山东段冷龙岭地区寒冻荒漠分布范围及其对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(06):305.
　ZHANG Fuguang,ZENG Biao,YANG Taibao.Changes in the Distribution Range of Alpine Desert and Its Responses to Climate Change in the Lenglongling Area of Eastern Qilian Mountains in Recent 30 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(06):305.
[10]姜创业,魏娜,程肖侠,等.1961-2008年陕西省年际气温和降水区域性变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(01):197.
　JIANG Chuang-ye,WEI Na,CHENG Xiao-xia,et al.Analysis of Inter-annual Temperature and Precipitation Regional Change During 1961-2008 in Shaanxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(06):197.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2016-12-23;改回日期:2017-01-18。
基金项目:中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目（2014092，2014108）；国家科技支撑计划课题（2012BAC19B0305）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（11231010，11471223）
作者简介:高峰(1994-),男,山东省潍坊市寒亭区人,硕士研究生,主要从事水风险评价等方面的研究。E-mail:gfcnu2016@163.com
通讯作者:张玉虎(1975-),男,江苏省徐州市人,博士,副教授,主要从事环境系统分析及风险评估研究。E-mail:zhang_yuhu@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01