[1]余海龙,黄菊莹,王亭荷.宁夏中部干旱带56年来气候生产潜力变化特征研究——以宁夏中宁县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):172-175.
　YU Hai-long,HUANG Ju-ying,WANG Ting-he.Impact of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in Recent 56 Years in Middle Arid Regions of Ningxia-A Case Study of Zhongning County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):172-175.
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宁夏中部干旱带56年来气候生产潜力变化特征研究——以宁夏中宁县为例

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 19 期数: 2012年06期 页码: 172-175 栏目: 出版日期: 2012-12-20
Title:
Impact of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in Recent 56 Years in Middle Arid Regions of Ningxia-A Case Study of Zhongning County
作者:
余海龙1, 黄菊莹2, 王亭荷1
1. 宁夏大学 资源环境学院, 银川 750021;
2. 宁夏大学 新技术应用研究开发中心, 银川 750021
Author(s):
YU Hai-long1, HUANG Ju-ying2, WANG Ting-he1
1. College of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China;
2. Center of New Technology Application and Research, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
关键词:
气候变化; 气候生产潜力; 中宁县
Keywords:
climate changes; climate potential productivity; Zhongning County
分类号:
P467
摘要:
为了摸清全球气候变化背景下宁夏中部干旱带年平均气温及年降水量变化情况及其对气候生产潜力产生的影响和未来气候变化情景下气候生产潜力水平.根据中宁县1953-2008年气象站点的年平均气温、年降水量资料,采用Miami模型、Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算气候生产潜力,运用气候诊断分析、相关分析等方法分析中宁年平均气温、年降水量、气候生产潜力的时空变化特征及趋势,并探讨了气候变化对气候生产潜力的影响.结果表明:(1)温度生产潜力显著增加,降水生产潜力明显下降,平均气候生产潜力为4 809.17kg/(hm2·a).气候生产潜力呈现出波动中减少的趋势;(2)气候生产潜力与年降水量呈极显著线性相关,与年平均气温没有显著相关性.温度生产潜力平均值为14367.4kg/(hm2·a),降水生产潜力为3 842.8kg/(hm2·a).降水生产潜力仅为温度生产潜力的26.7%.说明降水是中宁地区气候生产潜力最主要的限制因子.未来气候变化情景趋势表明,气候暖干化趋势对当地农业生产不利.
Abstract:
To find out the annual average temperature and precipitation changing condition and the effect on climate potential productivity and the climate potential productivity changing condition of Ningxia middle arid Regions under the global climate change background, based on mean temperature and precipitation data during 1953-2008 from meteorological station in Zhongning area, the climate potential productivity was calculated by using of the Miami model and Thornthwaite Memorial model. The mean temperature and precipitation, climate potential productivity temporal and spatial variation characteristics and trend were analyzed by using methods of climate diagnosis and correlation analysis. In addition, the influence of climate change on climate potential productivity was discussed. The results indicated that: (1) the temperature productivity significantly increased while the potential precipitation productivity obviously decreased in the recent 56 years, the mean climate potential productivity was 4 809.17kg/(hm2·a), the climate potential productivity decreased with fluctuation; (2) precipitation was highly linear related to climate potential productivity, but mean temperature had no obvious linear correlation to climate potential productivity. The mean temperature potential productivity was 14 367.4kg/(hm2·a), while the mean precipitation potential productivity was 3 842.8kg/(hm2·a), the latter only was 26.7% of the former. Thus, it indicated that the precipitation was the key factor to determine the potential climate productivity in Zhongning county. According to future climate scenario simulation, the warming-drying tendency of future climate will be disadvantageous to agricultural production.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2012-5-22;改回日期:2012-8-8。
基金项目:宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ1128)
作者简介:余海龙(1979- ),男,甘肃省酒泉市人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为旱区生态恢复与自然地理.E-mail:yhl@nxu.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01