ZHANG Qian,LIU Ji,WEI Rong,et al.Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Dry and Wet Evolution of Economic Belt in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River Based on SPEI Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):203-211.
基于SPEI指数的长江经济带上游干湿时空演变特征分析
- Title:
- Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Dry and Wet Evolution of Economic Belt in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River Based on SPEI Index
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2021)04-0203-09
- 关键词:
- SPEI指数; 云模型; Mann-Kendall检验; 干湿演变; 时空变化
- 分类号:
- P467
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 长江经济带是我国人口和经济高度聚集的重要经济带之一,也是水资源丰富的地区。研究该区域的干湿时空演变特征对区域经济发展、水资源可持续利用、生态建设具有极其重要的意义。以长江经济带上游的重庆、四川、云南、贵州为研究区,采用1961—2018年87个气象站逐月气象资料,通过计算标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),进而基于Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势与突变检验、云模型,揭示研究区年和四季干湿时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)1961—2018年长江经济带上游年、夏季、秋季与冬季均呈干旱化趋势,SPEI倾斜率分别为-0.027/10 a,-0.004 8/10 a,-0.048/10 a和-0.006 7/10 a。春季呈湿润趋势,SPEI倾斜率为0.031/10 a。秋季在1995年发生由湿到干的突变,其余各时间尺度下SPEI无显著突变。(2)研究区北部以干旱化趋势为主,南部以湿润化为主。春季和冬季分别有63%和53%的站点呈干旱化趋势,夏季和秋季分别有50%和85%的站点呈湿润化趋势。(3)云模型分析表明,58年来长江经济带上游年与季节多年平均干湿状态均处于正常,SPEI空间分布的均匀程度比时间分布的均匀程度大。
- Abstract:
- The Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the important economic belts where the population and economy are highly concentrated in China, and is the area rich in water resources. Studying the characteristics of the spatial and temporal evolution of dryness and wetness in this region is of great significance for regional economic development, sustainable use of water resources, and ecological construction. Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt were selected as the study area. The monthly meteorological data of 87 weather stations from 1961 to 2018 were used to calculate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI), and to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of dryness and wetness in the study area during the year and four seasons based on Mann-Kendall Trend and mutation test, cloud model. The results show that:(1)aridity trends were observed, and the SPEI slope rates were -0.027/decade, -0.004 8/decade, -0.048/decade and -0.006 7/decade in the whole year, summer, autumn and winter in the Economic Belt of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River during the period from 1961 to 2018; the humid tends were observed in the spring, the SPEI slope rate was 0.031/decade; there was an abrupt change from wet to dry levels in the autumn in 1995, and there was no significant change in SPEI on the other time scales;(2)aridity was dominant in the northern part of the study area, and humidification was dominant in the southern part; 63% and 53% of the sites showed the drought trend in spring and winter, 50% and 85% of the sites showed the humidification trend in summer and autumn;(3)cloud model analysis showed that the annual and seasonal multi-year average dry and wet conditions in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 58 years were normal, and the spatial distribution of SPEI was more uniform than the temporal distribution.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2020-09-06 修回日期:2020-09-26资助项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508104); 国家自然科学基金(51679145,91747103,51609124)第一作者:张茜(1995—),女,安徽淮南人,硕士研究生,主要从事水文学与水资源方面研究。E-mail:2200414407@qq.com通信作者:刘冀(1980—),男,河北保定人,博士,副教授,主要从事流域水文模拟与防洪调度研究。E-mail:liuji@ctgu.edu.cn