LUO Dengze,JIN Xiaoyan,QIANG Haofan,et al.Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Dry-wet Conditions in Zoige Wetland Based on SPEI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(02):227-233.
基于SPEI的若尔盖湿地干湿时空演变特征分析
- Title:
- Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Dry-wet Conditions in Zoige Wetland Based on SPEI
- 关键词:
- SPEI指数; 云模型; Mann-Kendall检验; EOF分解; 若尔盖湿地
- Keywords:
- SPEI index; cloud model; Mann-Kendall text; EOF decomposition; Zoige Wetland
- 分类号:
- P467
- 摘要:
- 若尔盖湿地是黄河上游重要的水源补给地，也是我国重要的沼泽分布区，明确其干湿时空演变特征，对进一步研究湿地气候与环境变化具有重要意义。基于若尔盖地区19个气象站1961—2016年逐日气象资料，计算了不同时间尺度下的标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），结合云模型、Mann-Kendall检验、经验正交函数（EOF）等方法，分析了若尔盖湿地近56 a来干湿时空演变特征。结果表明：（1）近56年若尔盖湿地干湿演变大致呈“偏湿—偏干—偏湿—偏干”4个阶段，以1969年、1975年、1999年为变化节点，且在1995年后干旱发生的情况增多。M-K趋势检验显示无显著突变点。（2）云模型分析表明，湿地SPEI空间分布的均匀程度比时间分布的均匀程度大，气候的干湿变化也更加稳定。湿地各季节干湿变化亦呈现不同的强度、离散度和稳定度，其中春季干旱最为严重，冬季次之且冬季干湿变化最为集中和稳定。（3）EOF分析得到的特征向量及对应的时间系数反映了若尔盖湿地干旱的时空演变主要特征。受大尺度天气系统的影响，第一模态表现为全区一致的干旱趋势，南北反向差异和东西反向差异分别为第二模态和第三模态，反映了纬度、经度对SPEI指数的影响。
- Abstract:
- Zoige Wetland is an important source of water supply in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, and is also a major area of marsh distribution in China. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of dry-wet conditions is essential for the further studies on climate and environmental changes in Zoige Wetland. Based on the daily meteorological data from 19 meteorological stations in the Zoige area from 1961 to 2016, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on different time scales was calculated. By using the cloud model, Mann-Kendall test, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and other methods, the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution of dry-wet conditions in Zoige Wetland during the past 56 years were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) the dry-wet evolution could be roughly divided into such four stages as humid-arid-humid-arid stage in the past 56 years, while the turning points were observed in 1969, 1975 and 1999 and drought occurred more frequently after 1995; Mann-Kendall test showed that there was no significant mutation of dry-wet condition in Zoige wetland; (2) cloud model analysis showed that the spatial distribution of SPEI was more uniform than the time distribution, and the spatial dry-wet evolution was more stable; dry-wet changes in different seasons showed the different intensity, dispersion and stability; the most serious drought occurred in spring followed by winter, drought was most uniform and stable in winter; (3) the eigenvectors obtained by EOF analysis and the corresponding time coefficients reflected the main characteristics of the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in Zoige Wetland. As a result of the influence of large scale climate systems, the first mode of EOF showed a uniform drought trend in the entire region. The differences between the north-south reverse and east-west reverse were the second and third mode, which reflected the influence of latitude and longitude on SPEI index.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2018-06-01;改回日期:2018-06-29。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金“气候变化下长江江源区水文环境和径流时空演变与预测研究”（41271045）
作者简介:罗登泽(1997-),男,四川旺苍人,硕士研究生,研究方向为区域水循环。E-mail:luodengze@sohu.com
通讯作者:梁川(1957-),男,四川雅安人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:lchester@sohu.com