[1]徐艳琴,白淑英,徐永明.基于两种方法的攀西泥石流易发性评价对比分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(03):285-291.
　XU Yanqin,BAI Shuying,XU Yongming.Comparative Analysis of Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment Based on Two Methods in Panxi District[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):285-291.
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基于两种方法的攀西泥石流易发性评价对比分析

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 25 期数: 2018年03期 页码: 285-291 栏目: 出版日期: 2018-04-10
Title:
Comparative Analysis of Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment Based on Two Methods in Panxi District
作者:
徐艳琴1, 白淑英1,2, 徐永明1
1. 南京信息工程大学 地理与遥感学院, 南京 210044;
2. 环境保护部 南京环境科学研究所, 南京 210042
Author(s):
XU Yanqin1, BAI Shuying1,2, XU Yongming1
1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Naijing 210044, China;
2. Naijing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Naijing 210042, China
关键词:
泥石流; 易发性评价; 贡献权重叠加模型; 确定性系数模型
Keywords:
debris flow; susceptibility assessment; contribution weight superposition model; certainty factor method
分类号:
P642.23
摘要:
泥石流易发性评价是泥石流灾害危险性评价和易损性评价的基础工作，为泥石流灾害预防预测提供依据。利用贡献权重叠加模型（CWS）和基于确定性系数（CF）的确定权重模型，采用多因子评价模型，进行了四川省攀西地区泥石流易发性评价，并结合实际泥石流点，采用频率比对评价结果进行精度检验。结果表明：两种方法得到的易发性分区结果整体分布具有较高的相似性，攀西地区泥石流高、极高易发区主要分布于中部、南部、东部的断层分布地区及雅砻江、金沙江及其支流两岸。基于确定性系数的确定权重模型的评价精度高于贡献权重模型，两种模型的评价结果中高易发区及以上级别分别占实际泥石流点总个数的87.5%，58.22%，频率比分别为6.02，3.71。基于确定性系数确定权重模型的评价结果具有更高的精确性，该方法能有效进行攀西泥石流易发性评价。
Abstract:
The assessment of debris flow susceptibility is the basic work of debris flow risk assessment and vulnerability assessment, which can provide the basis for the prediction of debris flow disaster prevention. Taking the Panxi district of Sichuan Province as a study area, the weights of debris flow factor were determined by using contribution weight superposition method (CWS) and the Certainty Factor (CF) method, the multi factor evaluation model is adopted for debris flow susceptibility assessment and mapping, the frequency comparison model combining with the actual debris flow point was used for testing accuracy of the results. The assessment results of the two methods have high similarity to the overall distribution of the zoning results. High and very high prone areas of debris flow mainly distribute in the fault distribution in the central, southern and eastern parts of Panxi District as well as the Yalong River, Jinsha River and its tributaries on both sides. The evaluation accuracy of the deterministic weight model based on CF is higher than that of the contribution weight model. The numbers of debris flow of the two methods in the high prone areas and beyond account for 87.5%, 58.22% of the total number of actual debris flow points, and the frequency ratios are 6.02, 3.71. The assessment result based on method for determining weight by the certainty factor has the higher accuracy, this method can effectively evaluate the debris flow susceptibility of Panxi.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2017-07-02;改回日期:2017-08-18。
基金项目:国家环保部公益性行业科研专项项目（201409055）；国家科技基础性工作专项重点项目（2014FY110800）
作者简介:徐艳琴(1992-),女,内蒙古巴彦淖尔市人,硕士研究生,研究方向为3S技术在资源环境中的应用。E-mail:674888869@qq.com
通讯作者:白淑英(1973-),女,内蒙古宁城县人,博士,研究方向为遥感和地理信息系统在资源环境中的应用。E-mail:baishu-ying@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01