MO Xiao-yu,XIE Fei,SHU Xiao-bo,et al.Analysis on Urbanization and Economic Development Shift of Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(03):106-109.
江西省城市化与经济发展关系分析
- Title:
- Analysis on Urbanization and Economic Development Shift of Jiangxi Province
- Keywords:
- urbanization; correlation analysis; granger analysis; Jiangxi province
- 分类号:
- F293.2
- 摘要:
- 近年来随着经济的发展，江西省城市规模不断扩大，城市化与经济增长两者关系变化较大。利用近20 a城市化率、经济增长及国民生产总值等时间序列资料，对江西省城市化总体发展特征、空间发展特征及与产业结构等进行分析，在此基础上对城市化水平与GDP的协整性和因果关系进行了研究。结果表明：江西省城市化水平进程呈现前期发展缓慢，后期加速；城市化水平总体偏低；城市化水平在空间分布上处于不平衡状态；城市化与经济结构相关性明显。同时城市化与GDP均是平稳的时间序列，两者之间具有长期协整性并存在双向因果关系，对其直接回归预测发展走向是可行的。
- Abstract:
- With economic development in recent years,expanding the city in Jiangxi province,the relationship between urbanization and economic growth changes become one of the current research.In this paper,nearly 20 years urbanization,economic growth and gross national product and other long-term time series data on the characteristics of the overall development of urbanization in Jiangxi Province,space development and industrial structure characteristics and related features were analyzed,on the basis of urbanization level of GDP,cointegration and causality research.The results indicate that:the process of urbanization level in Jiangxi province shows the slow development early and post-acceleration;the overall level of urbanization is low,middle and lower position in the country;the level of urbanization in the state spatial distribution is uneven;urbanization and economic structure are obvious.Both urbanization and GDP are stationary time series,cointegration between the long-term and a two-way causal relationship between its development trend of direct regression is feasible.
参考文献/References:
[1] 巫正霞.城市化水平与区域经济增长的相关性研究:以浙江省为例[D].杭州:浙江师范大学,2009.
[2] 汪同三,蔡跃洲.改革开放以来收入分配对资本积累及投资结构的影响[J].中国社会科学,2006(1):4-14.
[3] 胡贤辉,杨钢桥.江汉平原耕地数量变化驱动机制分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005,15(1):32-35.
[4] 关伟,汤姿.北方沿海省市耕地变化及其驱动机制研究[J].中国软科学,2005(3):126-129.
[5] 赵翠薇,濮励杰,孟爱云,等.基于经济发展阶段理论的土地利用变化研究[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(2):172-179.
[6] 邹平.金融计量学[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005.
[7] Granger C W J.Investigating causal relations by econometric models andcross-spectral methods[J].Econometrica,1969,37:424-438.
[8] 曹永福.格兰杰因果性检验评述[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(1):155-160.
[9] 吴群,郭贯成,万丽平.经济增长与耕地资源数量变化:国际比较及其启示[J].资源科学,2006,28(4):45-51.
[10] 罗雨泽.我国FDI、经济增长与国内投资结构关系的实证研究:基于协整方法(1979-2004)[J].当代财经,2006(3):97-103.
[11] 王少平.宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2003:86-87.
[12] 易丹辉.数据分析与Eiews应用[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2002.
相似文献/References:
[1]徐倩倩,戴 睿,原文杰,等.城市化背景下合肥暴雨时空演变和水汽输送特征[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(05):315.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.034]
Xu Qianqian,Dai Rui,Yuan Wenjie,et al.Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Rainstorm and Water Vapor Transport in Hefei Under Urbanization[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):315.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.034]
[2]陈法扬,谢军.论我国城市化过程中的水土保持问题[J].水土保持研究,1997,4(01):16.
Chen Fayang,Xie Jun.On the Problem of Soil and Water Conservation in the Course of Urbanization[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1997,4(03):16.
[3]熊国琪.平原地区的城市化水土保持问题探讨[J].水土保持研究,1997,4(01):35.
Xiong Guoqi.Study on the Conservation of Soil and Water Urbanization in the Plain Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1997,4(03):35.
[4]刘伟常,吴长文.全面推进城市水土保持试点工作[J].水土保持研究,1998,5(02):2.
Liu Weichang,Wu ChangWen.Practice and Probe Into Urbanized Soil and Water Conservation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1998,5(03):2.
[5]陈霞,吴长文,盛定生.城市水土保持中水保方案审批管理探讨[J].水土保持研究,1998,5(02):38.
Chen Xia,Wu Changwen,Sheng Dingsheng.On the Management of Examination and Approval of Soil and Water Conservation Programme in Urbanized Construction[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1998,5(03):38.
[6]靖娟利,王永锋.西南岩溶区NDVI时空变化及其与气候因子的关系[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(05):169.
JING Juanli,WANG Yongfeng.Spatial and Temporal Variation of NDVI and Its Relations with Climate Factors in the Southwest Karst Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(03):169.
[7]史娜娜,全占军,韩煜,等.东北林草交错区植被NDVI时空特征及其与气候因子关系分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(05):175.
SHI Nana,QUAN Zhanjun,HAN Yu,et al.Spatio-temporal Changes of Vegetation NDVI and Its Relationship with Regional Climate in Wood-grass Ecotone of Northeast China During 2000-2010[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(03):175.
[8]付梦娣,肖能文,赵志平,等.北京城市化进程对生态系统服务的影响[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(05):235.
FU Mengdi,XIAO Nengwen,ZHAO Zhiping,et al.Effects of Urbanization on Ecosystem Services in Beijing[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(03):235.
[9]吴新锋.农村城市化开发的水土流失治理探索[J].水土保持研究,2000,7(03):24.
WU Xin-feng.Exploration on Harnessing Soil and Water Losses of Countryside Urbanization Development[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2000,7(03):24.
[10]聂国辉,开美玲,张玉梅,等.城市化地区水土保持发展层次分析[J].水土保持研究,2000,7(03):56.
NIE Guo-hui,KAI Mei-ling,ZHANG Yu-mei,et al.The Modest Proposal About the Developing-levels of the Soil and Water Conservation in Urbanized Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2000,7(03):56.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2010-12-21;改回日期:2011-1-5。
基金项目:江西省研究生创新基金资助
作者简介:莫晓宇（1985- ），男，广西柳州人，硕士研究生，主要从资源利用与可持续、人文地理学研究。E-mail：mmxxyy1492@yahoo.com.cn
通讯作者:舒晓波（1965- ），男，江西上饶人，教授，主要从事土地资源利用。