Zhang Suna,Niu Zuirong,Jia Ling.Attribution analysis of runoff variations in upper reaches of Heihe River based on Budyko and abcd models[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(05):69-79.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.05.003]
基于Budyko和abcd模型的黑河上游径流变化归因分析
- Title:
- Attribution analysis of runoff variations in upper reaches of Heihe River based on Budyko and abcd models
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409（2025）05-0069-11
- Keywords:
- runoff variation; climate change; Budyko model; abcd hydrological model; upper reaches of Heihe River
- 分类号:
- P333.1
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的] 探究变化环境下黑河流域径流演变规律和驱动因素，量化各影响因素对流域径流变化的贡献率，以期为黑河上游水资源开发利用提供科学依据。[方法] 采用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Budyko和abcd水文模型等研究方法，分析了黑河上游1980—2023年的径流量演变规律及其驱动因素。[结果]（1）黑河上游径流集中期推迟，年内各月径流量差异性减小，径流年内分配渐趋均匀化，径流量在年尺度上经历了平枯期—平水期—丰平期的波动变化，但总体呈增加趋势。（2）祁连、札马什克、莺落峡站径流量分别在2003年、2005年、2005年发生了突变，突变后径流量较突变前分别增加11.33%，35.30%和19.54%；突变后降水、潜在蒸发对径流的贡献在减弱，气温对径流的贡献在增加。（3）径流对降水变化的敏感性最高，其次为下垫面和潜在蒸发；Budyko和abcd水文模型模拟得出气候变化对径流变化的贡献率分别为58.47% 和86.85%，降水是导致径流增加的主要气候因素，人类活动中林地面积的减少对径流增加有促进作用。[结论] 黑河上游径流量呈显著增加趋势，气候变化对径流变化的贡献率超过50%，气候变化是引起黑河上游径流变化的主要驱动因素。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] To explore the runoff evolution patterns and driving factors in the Heihe River Basin under changing environments and quantify the contribution rate of each influencing factor to the runoff variations, aiming to provide scientific support for the development and utilization of water resources in the upper reaches of the Heihe River. [Methods] The Mann-Kendall mutation test, Budyko model, and abcd hydrological model were used to analyze the evolution patterns and driving factors of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River from 1980 to 2023. [Results](1) The peak period of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River was delayed, with a decreasing intra-annual variability of monthly runoff, leading to a more even intra-annual distribution of runoff. Runoff experienced fluctuating changes on an annual scale, transitioning from a normal-dry period to a normal period and then to a wet-normal period, but overall showed an increasing trend.(2) Runoff at Qilian, Zhamashike, and Yingluoxia stations experienced mutations in 2003, 2005, and 2005, respectively. After the mutations, runoff increased by 11.33%, 35.30%, and 19.54% compared to before. The contributions of precipitation and potential evaporation to runoff diminished, while the contribution of temperature increased.(3) Runoff was most sensitive to precipitation variations, followed by underlying surface and potential evaporation. The Budyko and abcd hydrological models revealed that climate change contributed 58.47% and 86.85%, respectively, to the runoff variations, with precipitation being the main climatic factor of runoff increase. The reduction of human activities in forest areas also promoted runoff increase. [Conclusion] Runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River shows a significant increasing trend, with climate change contributing more than 50% to the runoff variation. Climate change is the main driving factor of runoff variation in the upper reaches of the Heihe River.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期：2024-12-09 修回日期：2024-12-30 接受日期：2025-01-13
资助项目：甘肃省科技重大专项（23ZDFA009）；2017年甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广项目（甘水科外发［2017］76 号-22）；甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目（22GSLK061）
第一作者：张苏娜（2000—），女，甘肃通渭人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为水文与水资源学。E-mail：1843001265@qq.com
通信作者：牛最荣（1964—），男，甘肃通渭人，博士，正高级工程师，主要从事水文学与水资源的教学与研究。E-mail：zrniu12@sina.com