WANG Chunxue,QIN Ningsheng.Periodic Variation Characteristics of Spring Sandstorm in Northern China and the Response to Maximum Wind Speed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(03):133-141.
中国北方春季沙尘暴周期变化特征及其对最大风速的响应
- Title:
- Periodic Variation Characteristics of Spring Sandstorm in Northern China and the Response to Maximum Wind Speed
- Keywords:
- spring; sandstorm; maximum wind speed; MTM-SVD; cycle
- 分类号:
- P445.4
- 摘要:
- 利用1971-2013年中国北方沙尘暴资料，分析了近43年中国北方春季沙尘暴的时空变化规律及其对最大风速变化的响应。结果表明：1971-2013年中国北方春季沙尘暴日数基本呈现出一致的逐渐减少趋势，其中1970年代初到20世纪末出现明显的减少趋势，进入21世纪以来沙尘暴日数略有增加，但仍维持在较低水平。中国北方春季的最大风速与沙尘暴日数呈显著正相关，并且其总体和阶段变化趋势都与沙尘暴日数变化有很好的对应关系。近43年中国北方春季沙尘暴日数最显著的变化特征为线性减少趋势，通过去趋势处理后发现其有明显的年际和年代际波动，在年际尺度存在明显的准7年周期，年代际尺度的准18年周期达到了99%的置信度水平。通过典型周期循环重建表明，中国北方地区沙尘暴准7年周期主要表现出整体一致的变化特征，河西走廊到陕北地区为大值中心，并且在位相转换过程中有一定的先兆性；准18年周期主要表现为东西反向和南北反向的交替异常循环。另外在典型循环演变过程中，最大风速与沙尘暴日数都有很好的协同变化关系，即风速偏大（小）时，对应沙尘暴日数也偏多（少）。
- Abstract:
- Based on the dataset of sandstorm during 1971-2013, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of spring dust storms in northern China and the response to maximum wind speed variation. The results indicated that the frequency of spring sandstorm in northern China pressented a gradual decreasing trend during 1971-2013 as a whole; the frequency of spring sandstorm decreased significantly from the early 1970s to the end of twentieth century, and then increased slightly since twenty-first century, but remained at a low level. The maximum wind speed of spring was significantly correlated with the frequency of sandstorm, and there was a good correspondence both in the total trend and stage trend. In the past 43 years, the most significant characteristic of the sandstorm was a linear decreasing trend. After removing the trend, it was found that there were obvious interannual and interdecadal fluctuations. By using the method of MTM-SVD, a significant 7.1-year cycle on the interannual scale was found, and the 18.3-year cycle on the decadal scale also reached the 99% confidence level. The typical circulation reconstruction indicated that the primary evolution characteristics of the quasi 7-year period was consistent change, with an abnormally large value center from Hexi Corridor to the northern Shaanxi, which switched firstly in the phase transition process. The quasi 18-year cycle was mainly characterized by the pattern alternation of the north-south opposite and the east-west opposite. In the typical cycle, the maximum wind speed and sandstorm had a good synergistic relationship, higher or lower wind speed corresponded to more or less sandstorms.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-06-07;改回日期:2017-06-30。
基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2016YFA0601904）；国家自然科学基金（41375116）
作者简介:王春学(1985-),男,黑龙江齐齐哈尔人,工程师,硕士,主要从事气候监测诊断与气候变化研究。E-mail:2005wangchunxue@163.com
通讯作者:秦宁生(1962-),男,河南商丘人,研究员,学士,主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail:qinns0515@163.com