[1]赵小汎,陈文波,代力民.Markov和灰色模型在土地利用预测中的应用[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):19-21.
　ZHAO Xiao-fan,CHEN Wen-bo,DAI Li-min.The Application of Markov and Gray Model in Land Use Prediction[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(02):19-21.
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Markov和灰色模型在土地利用预测中的应用

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 14 期数: 2007年02期 页码: 19-21 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
The Application of Markov and Gray Model in Land Use Prediction
作者:
赵小汎1,2, 陈文波3, 代力民1
1. 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 沈阳, 110016;
2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京, 100039;
2. 江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院, 南昌, 330045
Author(s):
ZHAO Xiao-fan1,2, CHEN Wen-bo3, DAI Li-min1
1. Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Science, Shenyang 110016, China;
2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100039, China;
3. College of Land Resources and Environment, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
关键词:
马尔柯夫模型; 灰色模型; 土地利用变化预测; 新建县
Keywords:
Markov model; Gray model; land use change prediction; Xinjian county
分类号:
F301.24
摘要:
马尔柯夫和灰色模型都适用于土地利用变化预测，根据同一套土地利用数据分别用两种模型预测，将所得结果相互验证、对比分析，提高预测可信度。以江西省新建县为例，两种预测方法的预测结果都表明，若继续保持1996-2000年的变化速度，耕地和未利用地将持续减少，林地和建设用地呈增长趋势，而草地和水域相对较稳定，草地有下降趋势，水域呈缓慢上升趋向。预测结果可为土地利用规划管理及政策的制定提供科学依据，研究方法为土地利用变化预测研究提供一种思路。
Abstract:
Both Markov and Gray models can be used in the prediction of land use change. Verification and comparison between two kinds of model predicted results based on the same set land use data can improve prediction credence. As a case study in Xinjian county of Jiangxi province, the results both indicated that if continuing to keep up the change velocity, arable land and unused land will decrease all along;forest land and built-up area shows a tendency to increase, however, grassland and water area will be relatively stabilized, grassland showing a tendency to decrease, water area showing a tendency to increase slowly. The predicted results can provide scientific basis for planning land use and constituting land use policy, and point out a way for land use change prediction research.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2006-6-30
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（30470302）；辽宁省科学技术计划项目（KJTGG0402）；辽宁省院校合作工程项目（KJTSY-HZ0501-02）资助
作者简介:赵小汎（1977- ），男，江西临川人，博士生，主要从事土地科学和城市生态研究。
通讯作者:代力民

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01