[1]任政,郑旭荣,刘坤,等.新疆玛纳斯河年径流预报研究[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(05):190-192.
　REN Zheng,ZHENG Xu-rong,LIU Kun,et al.Study of Annual Surface Flow Prediction in Manas River of Xinjiang[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(05):190-192.
点击复制

新疆玛纳斯河年径流预报研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 12 期数: 2005年05期 页码: 190-192 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
Study of Annual Surface Flow Prediction in Manas River of Xinjiang
作者:
任政, 郑旭荣, 刘坤, 雷雨, 李玉芳
石河子大学水利建筑工程学院, 新疆, 石河子832003
Author(s):
REN Zheng, ZHENG Xu-rong, LIU Kun, LEI Yu, LI Yu-fang
College of Water Conservancy and Construction Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832003, China
关键词:
年径流; 灰色模型; 拓扑
Keywords:
annual surface flow; grey model; topology
分类号:
S157.1
摘要:
在进行灰色拓扑理论探讨的基础上，选取新疆玛纳斯河年径流作为预报对象。建立GM（1，1）灰色拓扑模型群，通过结论分析，表明该模型在年径流预报中为一种较为理想的方法。
Abstract:
The annual surface flow in the Manas River of Xinjiang was chosen as object on the basis of discussion on the grey topological theory.Setting up GM(1,1) grey topological model groups and through analyzing conclusion,it indicates that such model is a kind of comparatively ideal method in predicting annual surface flow.

参考文献/References:

[1] 李希灿, 等.水文中长期预报成因模糊综合分析预测模式[J].黑龙江水专学报, 1998, 25(3):67-71.
[2] 钱家忠, 等.矿井涌水量的灰色马尔可夫预报模型[J].煤炭学报, 2000, 25(1):71-75.
[3] 杨培勇.中、长期预报中的关联分析方法[J].四川气象, 1998, (3):36-39.
[4] 阎俊爱, 等.基于遗传算法的神经网络优化预测模型及其在年径流预报中的应用[J].水利水电技术, 2003, 34(6):64-67.
[5] 邓聚龙.灰色控制系统[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1985.309-318.
[6] 冯强, 等.灰色拓扑预测理论在暴雨洪涝灾害预测中的应用[J].自然灾害学报, 1996, 5(4):98-103.

相似文献/References:

[1]李祥,王心源,顾继光,等.基于灰色预测法的芜湖市耕地变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(05):14.
　LI Xiang,WANG Xin-yuan,GU Ji-guang,et al.Research on the Cultivated Land Change of Wuhu City Based on Grey Theory[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(05):14.
[2]赵延德,张慧.城市能源消费结构变动的环境效应探析——以兰州市为例[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):327.
　ZHAO Yan-de,ZHANG Hui.Study on the Effects of Energy Consumption Structure Change on the Environment——A Case of Lanzhou City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(05):327.
[3]胡续礼,杨三平,张春平.淮河上游山区迎河小流域年降雨与径流特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(04):20.
　HU Xu-li,YANG San-ping,ZHANG Chun-ping.The Relationship between Annual Rainfall and Surface Runoff in Yinghe Watershed in the Upstream of the Huaihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(05):20.
[4]熊亚兰,王昌全,张科利,等.北盘江流域降雨量和径流量年际变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(05):30.
　XIONG Ya-lan,WANG Chang-quan,ZHANG Ke-li.Periodic Changes of the Annual Precipitation and Annual Natural Runoff in Beipan River Watershed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2010,17(05):30.
[5]赵小汎,陈文波,代力民.Markov和灰色模型在土地利用预测中的应用[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):19.
　ZHAO Xiao-fan,CHEN Wen-bo,DAI Li-min.The Application of Markov and Gray Model in Land Use Prediction[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(05):19.
[6]郭荣中,申海建,杨敏华.基于灰色模型的长沙市生态足迹与生态承载力预测分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(04):195.
　GUO Rongzhong,SHEN Haijian,YANG Minhua.Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(05):195.
[7]赵鹏宇,徐学选,张丽,等.基于灰色理论的忻州市适宜退耕还林面积预测[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(02):299.
　ZHAO Peng-yu,XU Xue-xuan,ZHANG Li,et al.Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Xinzhou City Based on Grey Theory[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(05):299.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2004-10-7
基金项目:国家科技攻关计划课题（2002BA901A37）
作者简介:任政（1975- ），男，研究生，从事水文水资源研究.

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01