[1]CAO Yuzhe,CAO Yunjiang.Analysis of Instability and Destruction of Rainfall Type Landslide Based on Failure Probability[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(05):387-393.
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Analysis of Instability and Destruction of Rainfall Type Landslide Based on Failure Probability
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
28
Number of periods:
2021 05
Page number:
387-393
Column:
Public date:
2021-08-20
- Title:
- Analysis of Instability and Destruction of Rainfall Type Landslide Based on Failure Probability
- CLC:
- P694
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Accurate analysis of the stability of rainfall-type landslides is conducive to deepening the evaluation and prediction of this type of landslide hazard. However,the traditional method of calculating landslide stability not only ignores the influence of the random distribution of calculation parameters on the landslide,but also fails to derive the landslide. Taking a typical rainfall-type landslide in Shaoguan area as an example,we established a rainfall-type landslide analysis model and a stability coefficient calculation model. Based on Monte-Carlo method,combined with failure probability analysis method and residual thrust method,the stability analysis and failure probability calculation of rainfall landslide in the study area were carried out under natural conditions and rainstorm saturation conditions. The results show that the landslide is basically stable under natural conditions,and the damage probability ranges from 31.3% to 37.1%,which is at a medium to low risk level; it is not stable under the saturated rainstorm conditions,and the damage probability ranges from 51.6% to 55.3%. which is at a moderately high risk level; compared with the traditional calculation method,the failure probability analysis method can also obtain accurate stability evaluation results,and the calculation is more simple and reasonable; when the failure probability analysis method is used,the failure probability calculated by not considering the variation coefficient and the skewness coefficient of the rock and soil parameters is higher than the failure probability calculated by considering these parameters,and the difference between the two calculation results is about 5% to 20%.
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Last Update:
2021-08-20