[1]SHI Wenyu,YANG Shengyong,LI Zengyong,et al.Variation Characteristics and the Future Trend Estimation of Temperature in Chinsha River Basin Over the Past 57 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(01):211-217.
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Variation Characteristics and the Future Trend Estimation of Temperature in Chinsha River Basin Over the Past 57 Years
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
28
Number of periods:
2021 01
Page number:
211-217
Column:
Public date:
2021-01-10
- Title:
- Variation Characteristics and the Future Trend Estimation of Temperature in Chinsha River Basin Over the Past 57 Years
- Keywords:
- Chinsha River Basin; trend variations; periodic; R/S; temperature
- CLC:
- P423.3
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Based on the data of the mean, the minimum mean and the maximum mean temperature of 39 meteorological stations in Jinsha River Basin over the past 57 years, the methods of cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall, Morlet wavelet analysis and Hurst index were employed to analyze and predict the annual and seasonal temperature change characteristics and the future trend of Jinsha River Basin. The results are as follows. The annual mean temperature, the mean minimum temperature and the mean maximum temperature of Jinsha River Basin have significantly increased, which passes through 99% significance test, and the mean minimum temperature is proved to increase the most, indicating that the mean minimum temperature has the important contribution to the mean temperature increase; the mean temperature, the mean minimum temperature and the mean maximum temperature of the four seasons are also increasing, which all passes through 90% significance test. From the inter-decadal change, the annual and seasonal mean temperature, the mean minimum temperature and the mean maximum temperature have increased since the 1990s, and have gradually accelerated the trend of rising, the inter-decadal peak value appeared in the period of 2010—2016. The annual and seasonal temperatures of Jinsha River Basin have obvious periodic change characteristics. The Hurst indexes of annual and seasonal temperature in Jinsha River Basin are no less than 0.7, indicating that the temperature will continue to rise in the future.
- References:
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Last Update:
2021-01-15