水土保持研究

基于金沙江流域39个气象站近57年的平均气温、平均最低气温和平均最高气温数据资料,采用累计距平法、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析法及Hurst指数法,对金沙江流域年及四季的气温变化特征和未来趋势进行了分析和预估。结果表明:金沙江流域年平均气温、平均最低气温和平均最高气温均呈现波动上升的趋势,并通过99%显著性检验,其中平均最低气温增幅最大,说明平均最低气温对气温上升的贡献率最大; 从四季来看,四季的平均气温、平均最低气温和平均最高气温也均呈现波动上升的趋势,并均通过90%显著性检验; 从年代际变化来看,年和季节的平均气温、平均最低气温和平均最高气温自20世纪90年代开始增温,且呈现逐步加速上升的趋势,年代际距平最大值出现在2010—2016时间段; 金沙江流域年及四季气温均具有明显的周期变化特征; 金沙江流域年及四季气温的Hurst指数均大于0.7,说明未来一段时间气温仍将呈持续上升的趋势。

Based on the data of the mean, the minimum mean and the maximum mean temperature of 39 meteorological stations in Jinsha River Basin over the past 57 years, the methods of cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall, Morlet wavelet analysis and Hurst index were employed to analyze and predict the annual and seasonal temperature change characteristics and the future trend of Jinsha River Basin. The results are as follows. The annual mean temperature, the mean minimum temperature and the mean maximum temperature of Jinsha River Basin have significantly increased, which passes through 99% significance test, and the mean minimum temperature is proved to increase the most, indicating that the mean minimum temperature has the important contribution to the mean temperature increase; the mean temperature, the mean minimum temperature and the mean maximum temperature of the four seasons are also increasing, which all passes through 90% significance test. From the inter-decadal change, the annual and seasonal mean temperature, the mean minimum temperature and the mean maximum temperature have increased since the 1990s, and have gradually accelerated the trend of rising, the inter-decadal peak value appeared in the period of 2010—2016. The annual and seasonal temperatures of Jinsha River Basin have obvious periodic change characteristics. The Hurst indexes of annual and seasonal temperature in Jinsha River Basin are no less than 0.7, indicating that the temperature will continue to rise in the future.