[1]ZHAO Xiaocui,LIAN Po,WANG Jijun,et al.Mutual Effect Among Soil and Water Conservation Technology, Agricultural Industry and Resources Based on VAR Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(01):188-194.
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Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
28
Number of periods:
2021 01
Page number:
188-194
Column:
Public date:
2021-01-10
- Title:
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Mutual Effect Among Soil and Water Conservation Technology, Agricultural Industry and Resources Based on VAR Model
- Author(s):
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ZHAO Xiaocui1, LIAN Po1, WANG Jijun1,2, HU Xiaoning1, LI Yue1, HAN Xiaojia
2
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(1.Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; 2.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, CAS & MWR, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China)
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- Keywords:
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soil and water conservation technology; agricultural industry; agricultural resources; vector autoregressive model; Xiannangou watershed
- CLC:
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S157
- DOI:
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- Abstract:
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Based on the time series data from 2000 to 2016 in Xiannangou watershed, we constructed a VAR model among soil and water conservation technology, agricultural industry and resources. Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze the relationship between them. The results showed that: soil and water conservation technology, agricultural industry and resources constituted a two-way causal relationship; the relationship between the three was more obvious at the initial stage and produced negative effect; however, with the increase of lag period, the negative effect gradually weakened and showed signs of convergence towards 0; the main reason was that soil and water conservation technology obstructed agricultural industry and resources in the early stage of implementation; with the application of the technology, the manifestation of technical benefits, and the improvement of farmers' awareness, this negative effect was gradually weakened; the biggest influence factor of soil and water conservation technology was technology itself; the biggest influence factor of agricultural industry was the application of soil and water conservation technology; the application of soil and water conservation technology was the biggest influencing factor in the early stage of agricultural resources, and the development of agricultural industry was the biggest influencing factor in the later stage, indicating that the development of agricultural industry and the utilization of resources were inseparable from the use of soil and water conservation technology. Therefore, in the future, technological suitability should be given priority in the renewal and optimization of soil and water conservation technology, followed by economic development, social demands and ecological environment conditions.