[1]LIU Chang,ZHANG Hongri,ZHAO Xiangwei,et al.Climate Change and Its Effect on the Yields of Winter Wheat and Summer Corn in Shandong Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):379-384.
Copy
Climate Change and Its Effect on the Yields of Winter Wheat and Summer Corn in Shandong Province
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
27
Number of periods:
2020 03
Page number:
379-384
Column:
目次
Public date:
2020-04-20
- Title:
- Climate Change and Its Effect on the Yields of Winter Wheat and Summer Corn in Shandong Province
- Keywords:
- climate yield; wavelet analysis; sensitivity analysis; winter wheat; summer maize; Shandong Province
- CLC:
- P467; S512.1+1; S513
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- We analyzed the characteristics of climate change by linear regression analysis using the meteorological data of 34 weather stations in Shandong Province from 1983 to 2015. Based on Matlab and Surfer, the real-time contour maps of annual mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours were used to analyze the climatic cycle variation. The HP filter method was used to extract climate yields of crops, the Lobell nonlinear regression model and sensitivity analysis were used to investigate the impact of climate change on the yields of winter wheat and summer maize in Shandong Province. The results show that the annual average temperature and precipitation in Shandong Province showed the fluctuating trend from 1983 to 2015, and the sunshine duration presented the fluctuating decline trend. Multi-time-scale trend analysis of climate change shows that the temperature in Shandong Province will continue to increase within a certain period of time, and the precipitation will turn to the decreasing stage after the brief increase. The sunshine hours will continue the current downward trend. From 1983 to 2015, the yields per unit area of winter wheat and summer corn, and annual yields per unit area of winter wheat-summer corn in Shandong Province showed the obvious rising trend, but the climatic yields fluctuated greatly. The increases of average temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours can promote the yield per unit area of winter wheat, and the increase of precipitation has the most significant influence on the yield increase of winter wheat. The increase of precipitation per 100 mm can increase the yield of winter wheat by 5.76%. The increases of average temperature, minimum temperature and sunshine hours have the negative effect on yield of summer corn, and the increases of maximum temperature and precipitation were beneficial to the increase of summer corn yield. The responses of annual yields of winter wheat and summer corn to maximum temperature and minimum temperature were negative, and the increase of precipitation could slightly improve the annual yield.
- References:
-
[1] 蔡运龙.全球气候变化下中国农业的脆弱性与适应对策[J].地理学报,1996,38(3):202-212.
[2] IPCC. Climate change 2013:The physical science basis[R]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013.
[3] Leadley P W, Drake B G. Open top chambers for exposing plant canopies to elevated CO2 concentration and for measuring net gas exchange[M]∥Springer, Dordrecht:CO2 and Biosphere, 1993.
[4] Easterling W E, Rosenberg N J, McKenney M S, et al. Preparing the erosion productivity impact calculator(EPIC)model to simulate crop response to climate change and the direct effects of CO2[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1992,59(1/2):17-34.
[5] 王馥棠. CO2浓度增加对植物生长和农业生产的影响[J].气象,1993,19(7):8-13.
[6] Murat I, Stephen D. An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability[J]. Applied Economics, 2006,38(7):835-844.
[7] 黄维,邓祥征,何书金,等.中国气候变化对县域粮食产量影响的计量经济分析[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(6):677-683.
[8] 张洁,白青华,马鸿勇.气候变化对河西走廊中部地区主要农作物的影响[J].干旱气象,2013,31(2):303-308.
[9] 靳建辉,刘秀铭,赵国永,等.全球气候变化大趋势与次级波动[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2012,7(1):40-46.
[10] 廉丽姝.山东省气候变化及农业自然灾害对粮食产量的影响[J].气象科技,2005,33(1):73-76.
[11] 薛晓萍,张承旺,张丽娟,等.区域农业生产脆弱性及干旱诊断分析[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(5):107-114.
- Similar References:
Memo
-
Last Update:
2020-04-30