利用1983—2015年山东省34个气象站点的气象数据,通过线性回归分析山东省1983—2015年气候变化特征; 基于Matlab,Surfer绘制年平均气温、降水量及日照时数的小波系数实部等值线图进行气候周期变化的分析; 利用HP滤波法提取农作物产量中的气候产量,并采用Lobell非线性回归模型和敏感性分析法探究了气候变化对山东省冬小麦、夏玉米单产的影响。结果 表明:1983—2015年山东省年平均气温和降水整体呈现波动上升的趋势,日照时数呈现波动下降的趋势; 气候变化的多时间尺度趋势分析显示,山东省气温在一定时间内仍将持续升高,降水量在经历短暂的增加之后将转入减少的阶段,日照时数会延续目前的下降趋势; 1983—2015年山东省冬小麦、夏玉米单产及冬小麦—夏玉米周年单产呈明显的上升趋势,但气候产量波动较大; 平均气温、降水量、日照时数增加对冬小麦单产有促进作用,降水量增加对冬小麦增产影响最显著,降水量每增加100 mm,冬小麦增产5.76%。夏玉米对平均气温、最低气温、日照时数的增加表现为负效应,最高气温和降水量的增加有利于夏玉米增产。冬小麦—夏玉米周年单产对最高气温、最低气温的响应表现为负效应,降水量的增加能够小幅提升周年单产。
We analyzed the characteristics of climate change by linear regression analysis using the meteorological data of 34 weather stations in Shandong Province from 1983 to 2015. Based on Matlab and Surfer, the real-time contour maps of annual mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours were used to analyze the climatic cycle variation. The HP filter method was used to extract climate yields of crops, the Lobell nonlinear regression model and sensitivity analysis were used to investigate the impact of climate change on the yields of winter wheat and summer maize in Shandong Province. The results show that the annual average temperature and precipitation in Shandong Province showed the fluctuating trend from 1983 to 2015, and the sunshine duration presented the fluctuating decline trend. Multi-time-scale trend analysis of climate change shows that the temperature in Shandong Province will continue to increase within a certain period of time, and the precipitation will turn to the decreasing stage after the brief increase. The sunshine hours will continue the current downward trend. From 1983 to 2015, the yields per unit area of winter wheat and summer corn, and annual yields per unit area of winter wheat-summer corn in Shandong Province showed the obvious rising trend, but the climatic yields fluctuated greatly. The increases of average temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours can promote the yield per unit area of winter wheat, and the increase of precipitation has the most significant influence on the yield increase of winter wheat. The increase of precipitation per 100 mm can increase the yield of winter wheat by 5.76%. The increases of average temperature, minimum temperature and sunshine hours have the negative effect on yield of summer corn, and the increases of maximum temperature and precipitation were beneficial to the increase of summer corn yield. The responses of annual yields of winter wheat and summer corn to maximum temperature and minimum temperature were negative, and the increase of precipitation could slightly improve the annual yield.
