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[1]LU Zehua,WANG Junqin.Risk Analysis of Shortage of Agricultural Water Resources in Guanzhong Plain Under Natural Precipitation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(06):364-370.

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Risk Analysis of Shortage of Agricultural Water Resources in Guanzhong Plain Under Natural Precipitation

Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume: 28 Number of periods: 2021 06 Page number: 364-370 Column: Public date: 2021-10-10

Title:: Risk Analysis of Shortage of Agricultural Water Resources in Guanzhong Plain Under Natural Precipitation

Author(s):: LU Zehua^1,3，WANG Junqin²; (1.Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Farmland and Water Resources，Chengdu 610015，China; 2.Research Institute of Sichuan Academy of Water Resources，Chengdu 610072，China; 3.College of Water Resource & Hydropower，Sichuan University，Chengdu 610041，China)

Keywords:: Guanzhong Plain; Copula function; effective precipitation; crop water demand; agricultural water resources shortage

CLC:: P426.6; S274.3

DOI:: -

Abstract:: In order to effectively improve the management level of agricultural water resources in arid and semi-arid regions，we calculated the annual effective precipitation(P_ey)and annual crop water requirement(ET_cy)with the marginal distribution function of the eastern and western Guanzhong Plains based on the daily meteorological data from six representative stations in the Guanzhong Plain from 1962 to 2016. We mainly used the Copula function to construct a two-dimensional joint probability distribution model of P_ey and ET_cy to assess the risk of shortage of agricultural water in the Guanzhong Plain. The results show that: P_ey and ET_cy in the eastern part of Guanzhong followed the lognormal distribution and generalized extreme value distribution，respectively，and the P_ey and ET_cy in the western part of Guanzhong followed the gamma distribution and generalized extreme value distribution，respectively; the shortage of agricultural water resources in the east of Guanzhong was obviously higher than that in the west of Guanzhong; when ET_cy was at a high level(p≤37.5%)or P_ey was at a low level(p≥62.5%)in eastern Guanzhong and western Guanzhong，there was a high probability that the natural precipitation and crop water demand were in an uncoordinated state，and the return period was short(1～4 years)，the probability that the water supply could not meet the water demand was greater，and the risk of agricultural water shortage was higher. The research results can provide an important basis for the adjustment of crop planting structure. It is suggested that the cropping structure that is compatible with the carrying capacity of water resources and the goal of saving water and increasing income in the Guanzhong Plain should be established.

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Last Update: 2021-10-10