[1]ZHOU Shenghui,LIU Tingxi,DUAN Limin,et al.Simulation and Prediction of Precipitation in Hailiutu River Basin Based on Time Series[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(05):88-94.
Copy
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
28
Number of periods:
2021 05
Page number:
88-94
Column:
Public date:
2021-08-20
- Title:
-
Simulation and Prediction of Precipitation in Hailiutu River Basin Based on Time Series
- Author(s):
-
ZHOU Shenghui1,LIU Tingxi1,2,DUAN Limin1,2,ZHANG Wenrui1,JI Ru1,SUN Long1
-
(1.Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018, China; 2.Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Water Resource Protection and Utilization,Hohhot 010018,China)
-
- Keywords:
-
precipitation analysis; wavelet analysis; DEM analysis; Holt-Winters model; Hailiutu River Basin
- CLC:
-
P426.61+4
- DOI:
-
-
- Abstract:
-
Based on the precipitation data of Etuoke Banner Station,Hengshan Station and Yulin Station around Hailiutu River Basin from 1959 to 2019,wavelet analysis,DEM analysis,and Holt-Winters model were used to discuss the periodic changes of precipitation in this region and the future trend of prediction. The precipitation in the Hailiutu River Basin was simulated and predicted by using Thiessen polygon weight method. The variation law of precipitation and the trend of precipitation evolution in the future were clarified. The results show that the wet and dry cycles were mainly 6 years and 12 years during the 61 years period from 1959 to 2019 in the Hailiutu River Basin where summer and autumn precipitation were concentrated; the short-term precipitation in the next 2~3 years shows a downward trend,while the long-term precipitation in the next 6~12 years or more shows the significant increase trend. The Holt-Winters model was used to predict the change trend of precipitation in the next 12 years. The average relative error of the predicted value is 22.28%,and the average annual precipitation is 491.6 mm. The overall predicted value of precipitation in the basin shows a fluctuating upward trend. This study can provide guidance for soil and water conservation and hydrological simulation of coal-water coordination on a watershed basis.