[1]YANG Xingxing,YANG Yunchuan,DENG Simin,et al.Research on Drought Characteristics and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on SPEI[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(04):113-121.
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Research on Drought Characteristics and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on SPEI
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
27
Number of periods:
2020 04
Page number:
113-121
Column:
目次
Public date:
2020-06-20
- Title:
- Research on Drought Characteristics and Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on SPEI
- Keywords:
- drought characteristics; drought risk; SPEI; run theory; Guangxi
- CLC:
- S423
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- Drought is the most common natural disaster with typical multi-dimensional characteristics. The risk of drought is determined by the comprehensive characteristics such as the degree of water shortage and the duration of drought. Taking Guangxi as the research area, we extracted the information of drought intensity and duration based on SPEI index with run theory, and analyzed the characteristics by using Mann-kendall, Hurst, Pettitt, EEMD and Copula. Finally, the disaster risk system theory was used to evaluate the risk of agricultural drought in Guangxi. The results showed that:(1)the drought intensity presented a weak downward trend, while the drought duration was contrary to that trend, both trends were not significant, but the latter had a stronger future continuity;(2)there was a sudden change in drought intensity series in 2007, sudden change in drought duration occurred in 1985, and their main periods were about 3.20 years;(3)Gumbel Copula is the optimal joint probability distribution of drought intensity and duration, while short-duration and low-intensity drought was the most common, about 60% of drought intensities and duration were less than 3;(4)the drought intensity was larger in southeastern Guangxi, smaller in southern Guangxi, drought duration was higher in Hezhou-Laibin-Chongzuo zonal area and lower in southeastern Guangxi; the trend of change was that the intensity decreased in northern Guangxi, and increased in southern Guangxi; while in most regions, the drought intensity increased, and significantly increased in central Guangxi;(5)there was the highest risk of agricultural drought in Chongzuo of southeastern Guangxi and Laibin of central Guangxi; in the other regions, drought risk in northwestern Guangxi was significantly higher than that in southeastern Guangxi. These results can help Guangxi improve the early warning of agricultural droughts.
- References:
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Last Update:
2020-07-09