[1]QUAN Jiangtao,YANG Yongfang,ZHOU Jiaxin.Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Henan Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(02):315-322.
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Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Henan Province
Research of Soil and Water Conservation[ISSN 1005-3409/CN 61-1272/P] Volume:
27
Number of periods:
2020 02
Page number:
315-322
Column:
Public date:
2020-03-30
- Title:
- Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Henan Province
- Keywords:
- land resource carrying capacity; land resource limitation; spatial and temporal evolution; grey prediction model; Henan Province
- CLC:
- F301
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In order to explore the reasonable population carrying capacity of land resources, based on the statistical data of Henan Province from 2000 to 2016, we used the grain production fluctuation index model, the land resource bearing index model, the land resource restriction model and the gray prediction model GM(1,1)to analyze the overall situation of Henan Province under the support of ArcGIS software. The dynamic analysis of the land resource carrying capacity of each city was carried out, and the land resource carrying capacity and population of the cities of Henan Province in the period 2017—2026 were predicted. The results show that:(1)from 2000 to 2016, the overall land resource carrying index of Henan Province presented the downward trend, and the land resource carrying capacity changed from balanced to rich levels;(2)in the cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2016, the population overloaded areas concentrated in the mountainous areas of western Henan(Sanmenxia, Luoyang and Pingdingshan)and relatively developed Zhengzhou and Jiyuan; during the 17 years, the land resource carrying index showed ‘high west and low east' pattern; in 2016, the number of cities and populations with lower land resource restrictions in various cities and counties in Henan Province decreased significantly, and the number of cities without restrictions on land resources increased, including the land resources of the provincial capital Zhengzhou, and the limit is shifted from mild to moderate, showing a deteriorating trend compared with those in 2000;(3)in the period 2017—2026, except for the population overload of Zhengzhou and Sanmenxia, the land resource carrying capacity of other cities show the increasing trend year by year, and the number of cities in the grain surplus type area will be stable; the level is continuously optimized, indicating that the regional land carrying capacity is gradually increasing.
- References:
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Last Update:
2020-02-25