为了探究土地资源的合理人口承载量,依据2000—2016年河南省相关数据,运用粮食生产波动指数模型、土地资源承载指数模型、土地资源限制度模型和灰色预测模型GM(1,1),借助ArcGIS软件对河南省总体和分地市土地资源承载力进行动态分析,并对河南省分地市2017—2026年土地资源承载力进行了预测。结果 表明:(1)2000—2016年,河南省总体土地资源承载指数呈现下降趋势,土地资源承载力由平衡有余转变至富裕级别。(2)2000—2016年河南省分地市中,人口超载类型区集中在豫西山区(三门峡、洛阳和平顶山)以及经济相对发达的郑州和济源; 17年间,土地资源承载指数均呈现出“西高东低”的特征; 2016年与2000年相比,河南省各地市中土地资源限制度较低的地市数和人口数均减少明显,不受土地资源限制的地市数量增多,其中省会郑州的土地资源限制度由轻度转向中度,呈现恶化趋势,需单独关注。(3)2017—2026年河南省除郑州和三门峡人口超载外,其余地市的土地资源承载力均呈现逐年上升的趋势,粮食盈余类型区的地市数量稳定,且盈余级别不断优化,表明区域土地资源承载力将会逐步增强,在未来仍满足经济发展需要和具备向省内外人口超载区域大量输出粮食的条件和基础。
In order to explore the reasonable population carrying capacity of land resources, based on the statistical data of Henan Province from 2000 to 2016, we used the grain production fluctuation index model, the land resource bearing index model, the land resource restriction model and the gray prediction model GM(1,1)to analyze the overall situation of Henan Province under the support of ArcGIS software. The dynamic analysis of the land resource carrying capacity of each city was carried out, and the land resource carrying capacity and population of the cities of Henan Province in the period 2017—2026 were predicted. The results show that:(1)from 2000 to 2016, the overall land resource carrying index of Henan Province presented the downward trend, and the land resource carrying capacity changed from balanced to rich levels;(2)in the cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2016, the population overloaded areas concentrated in the mountainous areas of western Henan(Sanmenxia, Luoyang and Pingdingshan)and relatively developed Zhengzhou and Jiyuan; during the 17 years, the land resource carrying index showed ‘high west and low east' pattern; in 2016, the number of cities and populations with lower land resource restrictions in various cities and counties in Henan Province decreased significantly, and the number of cities without restrictions on land resources increased, including the land resources of the provincial capital Zhengzhou, and the limit is shifted from mild to moderate, showing a deteriorating trend compared with those in 2000;(3)in the period 2017—2026, except for the population overload of Zhengzhou and Sanmenxia, the land resource carrying capacity of other cities show the increasing trend year by year, and the number of cities in the grain surplus type area will be stable; the level is continuously optimized, indicating that the regional land carrying capacity is gradually increasing.
