为衡量区域生态系统的压力大小,综合运用生态足迹模型、生态足迹多样性指数、生态系统发展能力、灰色预测GM(1,1)模型评价了江苏省盐城市2005—2018年的生态系统可持续发展能力,并预测了其未来10 a的生态可持续性。结果 表明:2005—2018年盐城市生态足迹组分以水域和耕地为主,占足迹总量的64%～72%; 14 a间,盐城市的生态足迹多样性指数保持稳定,但生态系统发展能力增加了70%; 盐城市的生态承载力14 a间仅增加了25%,明显低于生态足迹的63%,生态赤字呈逐年扩大趋势,其中,2018年的生态足迹为当年生态承载力的7.8倍; 如果继续当前的消费模式,预计到2028年,盐城市生态赤字较2018年增长44.6%,区域不可持续发展状况将越发严重。研究认为区域可持续发展的实现应该从减少生态足迹、提高生态承载力和生态足迹多样性指数三方面着手,以求达到提高资源利用率、发展循环经济的效果。
In order to measure the pressure of ecological system, the dynamic variation of ecological footprint, capacity, deficit(surplus)was calculated by using ecological footprint method, and then the indicators of ecological footprint diversity and ecosystem development capacity were introduced to consummate the calculation results. Above all, the equation about ecological deficit and per capita ecological deficit was built by using gray system model GM(1,1)and then the sustainable development of Yancheng City in Jiangsu Province from 2019 to 2028 was predicted. The results showed that water body and arable land account for 64%～72% of ecological footprint between 2005 and 2018 compared with different land types; the ecological carrying capacity only increased 25% in 14 years, far below the ecological footprint; the ecological footprint of Yancheng City was 7.8 times of the ecological carrying capacity in 2018; the ecological footprint diversity kept stable in 14 years, it meant there was no obvious changes in different land types, the ecological economic system kept relatively stable. If the pattern of consumption continues, the ecological deficit of Yancheng City is expected to increase 44.6% in 2028. It is suggested that the realization of regional sustainable development should start from three aspects: reducing ecological footprint, improving ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint diversity index, so as to improve the utilization rate of resources and develop circular economy.
