PAN Shan,HE Zhonghua,CHEN Lihui,et al.Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Guizhou Province in Recent 50 Years Based on Different Time Scales[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(03):279-288.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.03.033]
基于不同时间尺度的贵州省近50年气象干旱时空演化特征
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Guizhou Province in Recent 50 Years Based on Different Time Scales
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2023)03-0279-10
- 分类号:
- P426.616
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]基于气候因子分区条件下,分析贵州省不同区域在不同时间尺度下气象干旱的时空演变特征,可为干旱监测和预测、抗洪救灾提供理论依据。[方法]基于贵州省31个气象站点1970—2019年的逐月降水和气温数据,利用主成分分析讨论贵州省降水及气温变化特征,结合SPEI指数研究贵州近50年气象干旱时空演化规律。[结果](1)贵州近50年气温变化由东向西逐渐递增,即西部为气温极端变化和重度变化区、中部和东部为中度变化区、南部和北部边缘为轻度变化区; 贵州省降水变化由西向东逐渐递减,其中西部为极端变化和重度变化区、中部为重度变化区、东部为轻度变化及正常区;(2)贵州省近50年气象干旱强度中度变化区最大、其次是轻度变化区,重度变化区最小; 随着年代的递增及时间尺度增大,气象干旱逐渐增强,并呈现“峰—谷”交替现象,其中1970—1985年及1990—2000年为干旱“低谷”期、1985—1990年及2000—2019年为干旱“峰值”期;(3)贵州近50年逐月干旱频率以中低频为主,主要发生在贵州东部、南部及北部; 轻度变化与中度变化区70s干旱频率最小、变幅最大,10s干旱频率最大、变幅次之,其余年代干旱频率变化相对较小。[结论]气象干旱具有显著的时间尺度特征,干旱的时空演化是气候变化、流域地表及人类活动时空耦合的结果。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]Based on the climatic factor zoning conditions, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of meteorological drought in different regions of Guizhou Province at different time scales are analyzed, providing a theoretical basis for drought monitoring and prediction, flood control and disaster relief. [Method] Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 31 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province from 1970 to 2019, the variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in Guizhou Province were discussed by principal component analysis, based on SPEI Index, the temporal and spatial evolution of meteorological drought in Guizhou Province in recent 50 years was studied. [Results](1)The temperature change of Guizhou Province in recent 50 years gradually increased from east to west, that is, the western region was the extreme and severe temperature change region, the central and eastern regions were the moderate temperature change region, and the southern and northern edges were the mild temperature change region. Precipitation variation in Guizhou Province gradually decreased from west to east, with extreme and severe variation in the west, severe variation in the middle, and mild and normal variation in the east.(2)In Guizhou Province, the moderate change area of meteorological drought intensity in recent 50 years was the largest, followed by the mild change area, and the severe change area was the smallest. With the increase of time and time scale, meteorological drought gradually increased, and the phenomenon of ‘peak-valley' alternated. The period from 1970 to 1985 and 1990 to 2000 were the ‘trough' period of drought, and the period from 1985 to 1990 and 2000 to 2019 were the ‘peak' period of drought.(3)In recent 50 years, the monthly drought frequency in Guizhou is mainly medium-low frequency, mainly occurring in the east, south and north of Guizhou; In the areas with mild and moderate changes, the frequency of drought was the smallest and the amplitude was the largest in 70s, and the frequency of drought was the largest and the amplitude was the second in 10s. The variation of drought frequency in the rest years was relatively small. [Conclusion] The study shows that the climate drought has remarkable time-scale characteristics, and the spatial-temporal evolution of drought is the result of the coupling of climate change, watershed surface and human activities.
参考文献/References:
[1] Heim Jr R R. A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2002,83(8):1149-1166.
[2] Ashok K. Mishra and Vijay P. Singh. A review of drought concepts[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010,391(1):202-216.
[3] Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J]. Nature, 2010,467(7311):43-51.
[4] Zhou L, Yang G. Ecological economic problems and development patterns of the Arid Inland River Basin in Northwest China[J]. Ambio, 2006:316-318.
[5] 孙荣强.干旱定义及其指标评述[J].灾害学,1994(1):17-21.
[6] Van Huijgevoort M H J, Van Lanen H A J, Teuling A J, et al. Identification of changes in hydrological drought characteristics from a multi-GCM driven ensemble constrained by observed discharge[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014,512:421-434.
[7] Van Lanen H A J, Wanders N, Tallaksen L M, et al. Hydrological drought across the world:impact of climate and physical catchment structure[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013,17(5):1715-1732.
[8] Vrochidou A E K, Tsanis I K, Grillakis M G, et al. The impact of climate change on hydrometeorological droughts at a basin scale[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2013,476:290-301.
[9] Caminero L, Génova M, Camarero J. J, et al. Growth responses to climate and drought at the southernmost European limit of Mediterranean Pinus pinaster forests[J]. Dendrochronologia, 2018,48:20-29.
[10] Oguntunde P G, Abiodun B J, Lischeid G. Impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Volta Basin, West Africa[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2017,155:121-132.
[11] Lu H, Wu Y, Li Y, et al. Effects of meteorological droughts on agricultural water resources in southern China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017,548:419-435.
[12] 王劲松,郭江勇,周跃武,等.干旱指标研究的进展与展望[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(1):61-67.
[13] 翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847-857.
[14] Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[15] 史本林,朱新玉,胡云川,等.基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1547-1558.
[16] 曹永强,李玲慧,路洁,等.基于SPEI的辽宁省玉米生育期干旱特征分析[J].生态学报,2021,41(18):7367-7379.
[17] 武慧敏,吕爱锋,张文翔.巴音河流域水文干旱对气象干旱的响应[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2022,20(3):459-467.
[18] 戴洪刚,梁虹,黄法苏.喀斯特枯水、干旱、灾害初探:以贵州省为例[J].贵州师范大学学报:自然科学版,2005,23(4):32-37.
[19] 刘世梁,田韫钰,安南南,等.基于逐月标准化降水蒸散指数的多尺度方法分析气候变化对澜沧江流域归一化植被指数的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(6):705-714.
[20] 任培贵,张勃,张调风,等.基于SPEI的中国西北地区气象干旱变化趋势分析[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(1):182-187,192.
[21] 万新宇,包为民,荆艳东,等.基于主成分分析的洪水相似性研究[J].水电能源科学,2007(5):36-39.
[22] He Z, Liang H, Yang C, et al. Temporal-spatial evolution of the hydrologic drought characteristics of the karst drainage basins in South China[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2018,64:22-30.
[23] 朱大运,熊康宁,肖华.贵州省极端气温时空变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2018,40(8):1672-1683.
[24] 丁文荣.西南地区极端降水的时空变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(7):1071-1079.
[25] 李勇,刘秀明,王世杰,等.1961—2017年贵州降水时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(6):145-150.
[26] He Z, Zhao C, Zhou Q, et al. Temporal-spatial evolution of lagged response of runoff to rainfall in Karst drainage basin, Central Guizhou of China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2022,147(1):437-449.
相似文献/References:
[1]孔令颖,扶松林,韩晓阳,等.基于传统干湿指数的省域长历时气象干旱变化特征及其对旱作粮食单产的影响[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(03):159.
KONG Lingying,FU Songlin,HAN Xiaoyang,et al.Spatiotemporal Variation of Long-term Meteorological Drought and Its Impacts on Grain Yield in Shaanxi Province Based on the Traditional Arid-Wet Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):159.
[2]张 特,刘 冀,魏 榕,等.淮河上游植被对气象干旱的响应[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(02):213.
ZHANG Te,LIU Ji,WEI Rong,et al.Response of Vegetation to Meteorological Drought in Upper Huaihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(03):213.
[3]杨铭珂,贺中华,任荣仪.黔中地区气象水文干旱演变特征及其响应关系[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(01):264.
YANG Mingke,HE Zhonghua,REN Rongyi.Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought and Their Response Relations in Central Guizhou[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(03):264.
[4]游 漫,贺中华,张 浪,等.基于相对湿润指数的贵州省气象干旱时空变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(04):255.
YOU Man,HE Zhonghua,ZHANG Lang,et al.Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Guizhou Province Based on Relative Humidity Index[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(03):255.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-04-23 修回日期:2022-05-07
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(u1612441,41471023); 贵州省水利厅自然科学项目(KT202237); 贵州师范大学2015年博士科研启动项目贵州省自然科学基金项目(黔科合基础-ZK[2023]重点028)
第一作者:潘杉(1996—),女,贵州德江人,硕士研究生,主要从事喀斯特水文水资源与遥感研究。E-mail:pan_shan77@163.com
通信作者:贺中华(1976—),男,贵州兴义人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事喀斯特水文水资源与遥感研究。E-mail:hezhonghua7621@126.com