[1]王诗晨,程先富,杨伟伟.近56年巢湖流域降水特征及其对旱涝灾害的影响[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(03):289-294.
　WANG Shichen,CHENG Xianfu,YANG Weiwei.Characteristics of Rainfall in Chaohu Basin in the Last 56 Years and Their Influences on Droughts and Floods[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(03):289-294.
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近56年巢湖流域降水特征及其对旱涝灾害的影响

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 22 期数: 2015年03期 页码: 289-294 栏目: 出版日期: 2015-06-28
Title:
Characteristics of Rainfall in Chaohu Basin in the Last 56 Years and Their Influences on Droughts and Floods
作者:
王诗晨1,2, 程先富1,2, 杨伟伟1,2
1. 安徽师范大学 国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽 芜湖 241003;
2. 安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室, 安徽 芜湖 241003
Author(s):
WANG Shichen1,2, CHENG Xianfu1,2, YANG Weiwei1,2
1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui 241003, China;
2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu, Anhui 241003, China
关键词:
Mann-Kendall检验; 小波分析; SPI指数; 降水量; 巢湖流域; 旱涝灾害
Keywords:
Mann-Kendall mutation test; wavelet analysis; SPI index; precipitation; Chaohu Basin; drought and flood disasters
分类号:
P426.615
摘要:
通过1957—2012年巢湖流域56 a间的9个气象站的降水数据，基于趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析和标准化降水指数分析等方法，对巢湖流域降水特征和降水趋势进行了研究。结果表明：56 a间巢湖流域年降水量呈显著增加的趋势，线性增加率为28.09 mm/10 a。春季和秋季的降水略有递增，夏季和冬季降水量呈递减的趋势。年降水量在1963年、1969年、1976年、1978年存在4个降水突变点，并且在1990—1993年降水量趋势显著增加。56 a间年降水量主要存在3～5，6～10，12～18，22～28 a的周期变化规律。通过对巢湖流域年降水量标准化降水指数进行旱涝等级划分，并对其突变前后的变化分析可知巢湖流域在降水灾变后，洪涝灾害发生更加频繁，巢湖流域降水趋势逐渐向洪涝状态变化。
Abstract:
Through the precipitation data from 56 meteorological stations in Chaohu Basin in the last 56 years from 1957 to 2012 and based on the methods such as Mann-Kendall mutation test，wavelet transform and SPI index, the precipitation time series of Chaohu Basin was analyzed including precipitation trend analysis, mutation analysis, periodic analysis and droughts and floods index analysis. The results showed that annual precipitation in the 56 years in Chaohu Basin presented the significant increasing trend, and the linear increase rate was 28.09 mm/10 a. Precipitation in spring and autumn slightly increased, precipitation in summer and winter had the decreasing trend. The annual precipitation had 4 events of mutation in 1963,1969,1976 and 1978, respectively, and reached the significant level from 1990 to 1993. Annual precipitation presented 3～5, 6～10, 12～18 and 22～28 years periodic variations over the 56 years. According to the drought grade division of the Chaohu Basin precipitation of the standardized precipitation index, and the changes before and after the mutation analysis in the Chaohu Basin precipitation after disaster, waterlog occurs more frequently in Chaohu Basin, and the precipitation readily causes the floods.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2014-05-18;改回日期:2014-08-05。
基金项目:国家自然科学资助项目“流域尺度洪涝灾害风险评估方法研究——以巢湖流域为例”（41271516）
作者简介:王诗晨(1988-),男,安徽芜湖人,硕士研究生,研究方向为区域环境与自然灾害。E-mail:172619485@qq.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01