[1]陈美婷,匡耀求,黄宁生.基于RBF模型的广东省土地生态安全时空演变预警研究[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(03):217-224.
　CHEN Meiting,KUANG Yaoqiu,HUANG Ningsheng.Early-warning of Spatiotemporal Evolvement of Land Ecological Security in Guangdong Province Based on RBF[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(03):217-224.
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基于RBF模型的广东省土地生态安全时空演变预警研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 22 期数: 2015年03期 页码: 217-224 栏目: 出版日期: 2015-06-28
Title:
Early-warning of Spatiotemporal Evolvement of Land Ecological Security in Guangdong Province Based on RBF
作者:
陈美婷1,2, 匡耀求1, 黄宁生1
1. 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所, 广州 510640;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
Author(s):
CHEN Meiting1,2, KUANG Yaoqiu1, HUANG Ningsheng1
1. Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
关键词:
熵权法; 土地生态安全; 预警; 广东省
Keywords:
entropy weight; land ecological security; early-warning; Guangdong Province
分类号:
F301.2;F323.211
摘要:
基于压力—状态—响应（P-S-R）模型构建土地生态安全预警评价指标体系，运用熵权法和RBF模型对2000—2016年广东省土地生态安全进行评价与预警研究，同时分析2012年广东省21地级市土地生态安全空间格局。结果表明：（1）广东省土地生态安全水平总体呈波动上升趋势，其中2000—2006年处于重警状态，2007—2009年处于高警状态，2010—2012年处于中警状态。2013—2016年，若不出现较大变故，全省土地生态安全将仍保持这一发展趋势，平稳中略有上升，仍处于中警状态；（2）2012年广东省土地生态安全基本上呈粤北、粤西警情高，珠三角和粤东警情低的格局；（3）影响广东省土地生态安全的主要因素包括自然灾害受灾面积比重、公路密度、建成区面积比重、人均GDP、经济密度、农民人均纯收入、自然保护区面积比重等，这些是今后调控的重点。
Abstract:
Based on a pressure-status-response (PSR) model, the evaluation index system of land ecological security early-warning was built. And then the entropy weight and RBF model were used to evaluate and make a prediction for land ecological security development trend of Guangdong Province, meanwhile the spatial variation of eco-security in Guangdong Province in 2012 was analyzed. The results are shown as follows: (1) the comprehensive land ecological security index showed the rising trend with fluctuations, and remained in the heavy warning from 2000 to 2006, in the high warning from 2007 to 2009, in the moderate warning from 2010 to 2012, if the serious event didn’t existed, comprehensive land ecological security index would keep the same development trend, and still in the moderate warning from 2013 to 2016; (2) the spatial variation of eco-security in 2012 in Guangdong Province showed that the warning degree was high in the northern and western areas of Guangdong Province, and the eastern area and Pearl River Delta were lower than the northern and western areas; (3) the main factors influencing the land ecological security of Guangdong Province include the proportion of natural disaster-affected area, road density, the proportion of built-up urban area, per capita GDP, economic density, per capita net income of farmers, the proportion of nature reserves, which will be the focus of land ecological security regulation in the future.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2014-07-21;改回日期:2014-08-07。
基金项目:广东省科技计划项目“猪—沼—果循环农业模式在粤西山区应用示范研究”（2010B090300058）
作者简介:陈美婷(1988-),女,湖南岳阳人,硕士研究生,研究方向为资源环境与区域可持续发展。E-mail:15652772403@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01