YE Zhengwei.Precipitation Change and Its Trend in Recent 50 Years in the Coastal Region of Jiangsu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(01):176-180.
江苏沿海开发地区近50年来降水演变特征与趋势
- Title:
- Precipitation Change and Its Trend in Recent 50 Years in the Coastal Region of Jiangsu Province
- 分类号:
- P332.1
- 摘要:
- 利用1960—2009年10个代表气象站降水资料，采用多方法分析了江苏沿海开发地区的降水特征与趋势。结果表明：年降水量波动频繁，南部较北部略偏多，盐城波动幅最大，南通最小；其年代变化上，南通为持续增加趋势，盐城以1960s降水量最多，其后大幅减少，而连云港则总体偏低，且年代际变幅最大。汛期降水量上，沿海北部较南部偏大，波动幅度与年降水量类似；汛期降水年代变化上，南通总体仍呈增加趋势；而盐城则总体减少，以1970s最低；连云港以1980s为最低值，此前偏高，此后略有增加。2000年以来的旱涝波动更为频繁，并以涝为主。近50 a来南通、盐城的年降水呈较弱的减小趋势，连云港则呈增加趋势，而汛期降水量的变化趋势则与年降水量相反。未来趋势上，南通、盐城、连云港的年降水量仍将分别呈现减少、减少、增加的趋势，汛期降水量也仍将分别表现为增加、增加、减少的趋势。
- Abstract:
- Multiple methods were applied to detect the characteristic of precipitation and its trend in 1960—2009 in the coastal region of Jiangsu Province. Frequent fluctuation can be found in annual precipitation with more rainfall appeared in southern part while less in northern part, and maximum change range occurred in Yancheng while minimum in Nantong. An increasing trend for decadal annual precipitation can be seen in Nantong while Yancheng occurred maximum precipitation in 1980s and it decreased greatly ever since then, Lianyungang was proved to be less decadal precipitation and it had the maximum change range. For precipitation in flood season, it is demonstrated that more precipitation appeared in the northern part while less precipitation in the southern part, but the change range in flood season is similar to that of annual precipitation. However, a continuous increase trend for decadal flood season precipitation can be outlined in Nantong, while minimum precipitation appeared in 1970s and 1980s in Yancheng and Lianyungang, respectively, but the former has a relatively lower decadal precipitation in flood season while the latter has higher value before 1980s and lower value after 1980s. SPI analysis showed that more frequent shift in flood and drought presented in 2000s with more flood dominated implying the effect of the northward advance of the Jianghuai Plum rain belt. A slight decreasing trend can be detected in Nantong and Yancheng for the trend of annual precipitation while increasing trend in Lianyungang, but a reversed trend can be pre-assessed in Nantong, Yancheng and Lianyungang, respectively for precipitation in flood season. R/S analysis reveals that decreasing trend will continue into the near future in Nantong and Yancheng while increasing trend in Lianyungang for annual precipitation, but for precipitation in flood season, increasing trend will continue in Nantong and Yancheng while decreasing trend in Lianyungang.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2014-04-22;改回日期:2014-05-18。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41471425）；教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目（10YJC790342）；江苏省教育厅高校哲社科学研究（2011SJB790005）；江苏省高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师
作者简介:叶正伟(1973-),男,安徽黄山人,博士,副教授,主要从事水文气象与自然灾害方面的研究。E-mail:leafyzw@163.com