Chen Long,Yu Bin.Early warning of mudflows in single-gully and area in the loess region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,32(02):191-197.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.02.009]
黄土地区沟谷型泥流单沟及区域预警
- Title:
- Early warning of mudflows in single-gully and area in the loess region
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2025)02-0191-07
- Keywords:
- mudflow; early-warning model; critical rainfall; single-ditch
- 分类号:
- P642.23
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]提出黄土地区沟谷型泥流的单沟及区域预警模型,为黄土地区泥流预警提供参考。[方法]通过收集文献资料,对泥流形成的降雨条件、地形条件、地质条件数据进行了分析,采用通用泥石流预警方法演变的泥流预警模型对黄土部分地区泥流进行了单沟及区域预警,并与基于临界降雨强度的预警方法对比。[结果]单沟预警中,泥流预警模型对黄土地区47次泥流事件进行预警的成功率约90%; 区域预警中,泥流预警模型对西峰区、镇原县及延安市进行预警的成功率接近100%; 利用综合降雨临界值对黄土地区泥流进行简便降雨预警的成功率约90%。[结论]采用泥流预警模型对黄土地区泥流进行单沟及区域预警相比于其他研究中基于临界降雨强度的预警方法考虑因素更全面,有更高的准确率,预警结果更细致。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]This study proposes a single-channel and regional early warning model for gully-type mudflows in loess areas, which provides a reference for early warning of mudflows in loess region. [Methods]Data related to mudflow formation, including rainfall conditions, topographic conditions and geological conditions, were collected from the literature for analysis. The mudflow early-warning model was developed by using the generalized mudflow early-warning method to provide single-gully and regional early warning for mudflows in some areas of the Loess Plateau. Moreover, the model was compared with the early-warning method that is based on the critical rainfall intensity. [Results]In single-gully early warning, the success rate of the mudflow early-warning model for 47 mudflow events in the loess region was approximately 90%. In regional early warning, the success rate of the mudflow early-warning model for Xifeng District, Zhenyuan County, and Yan'an City was almost 100%. The success rate of the simplified rainfall early-warning model for mudflows in the loess region was approximately 90% by using the integrated precipitation threshold value. [Conclusion]Compared with previous studies, where the mudflow early-warning method is based on the critical rainfall intensity, the model developed in this study that is meant for single-gully and regional early warning of mudflows in the loess region comprehensively considers the crucial factors, has high accuracy and ensures detailed early-warning results.
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相似文献/References:
[1]马东涛,崔鹏,张金山,等.黄土高原泥流灾害及防治对策[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(04):19.
MA Dong-tao,CUI Peng,ZHANG Jin-shan,et al.Mudflow Hazards and Prevention Countermeasures on the Loess Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(02):19.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2024-04-28 修回日期:2024-06-24 接受日期:2024-06-27
资助项目:国家自然科学基金“强震区泥石流形成演进机制与动态监测预警研究”(U21A2032)
第一作者:第一作者:陈龙(2000—),男,四川雅安人,硕士研究生,研究方向为泥石流灾害预警。E-mail:2787064292@qq.com
通信作者:通信作者:余斌(1966—),男,四川成都人,博士,教授,主要从事泥石流灾害防治与研究工作。E-mail:yubin08@cdut.cn