MAO Xiling,YIN Shuyan,LIU Haihong.Analysis of Agrometeorological Disasters Facing Extreme Climate Events in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan Provinces[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(04):327-337.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.04.014.]
面向极端气候事件的冀鲁豫地区农业气象灾害分析
- Title:
- Analysis of Agrometeorological Disasters Facing Extreme Climate Events in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan Provinces
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2023)04-0327-11
- Keywords:
- extreme climate event; agricultural meteorological disaster; Hebei; Shandong; and Henan Provinces
- 分类号:
- P467; S42
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]研究冀鲁豫地区表征极端气候事件的极端气候指数时空变化特征,揭示区域内极端气候事件变化规律及其对农业气象灾害的影响,为农业生产合理利用气候资源,提高防灾减灾能力提供科学依据。[方法]基于冀鲁豫地区1960—2020年52个气象站点数据,1970—2019年农作物受灾面积数据,利用一元线性回归、滑动平均、R/S分析、IDW、Mann-Kendall和Pettitt检验分析了极端气候指数变化特征,通过灰色关联度和相关分析法研究了极端气候事件对农业气象灾害的影响。[结果]1960—2020年,冀鲁豫地区气候呈暖干化趋势,表征高温(低温)事件的指数呈上升(下降)趋势,气候逐年暖化; 降水量略微下降,降水强度缓慢上升; 未来该区气温会强持续上升,降水量(降水强度)会弱持续下降(上升)。近61年来该地区极端高温事件发生频率与持续时间呈大范围上升趋势,冀北与鲁东地区最为显著; 河北中南部和山东中部地区极端低温事件发生频率与持续时间显著降低; 山东中部与河南中东部地区降水极端化特征显著。1970—2019年,研究区农作物洪涝、旱灾、风雹受灾面积(受灾率)呈下降趋势,低温冻害受灾面积(受灾率)略有增加; 旱灾和洪涝是主要的农业气象灾害,高温和降水对其影响最为显著。[结论]未来,河北中北部、山东中东部地区农作物受高温胁迫可能性较大,山东中部与河南中东部地区需加强对洪涝灾害的防范,河北东北部、河南西部地区应注意风雹、低温冻害等突发性灾害。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aim of this study is to research the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme climate indices in Hebei, Shandong and Henan, and reveal the variation law of extreme climate events in the region and its impact on agricultural meteorological disasters, so as to provide scientific basis for rational utilization of climate resources in agricultural production and improvement of disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. [Methods] Based on the data of 52 meteorological stations in Hebei, Shandong and Henan Provinces from 1960 to 2020 and the data of crop area affected from 1970 to 2019, the variation characteristics of extreme climate index were analyzed by linear regression, moving average, R/S analysis, IDW, Mann-Kendall and Pettitt test. The influence of extreme climate events on agrometeorological disasters was studied by grey correlation degree and correlation analysis. [Results] From 1960 to 2020, the climate in Hebei, Shandong and Henan Provinces showed a warming and drying trend, and the index of high temperature(low temperature)events showed an upward(downward)trend, and the climate had been warming year by year. The precipitation decreased slightly and the precipitation intensity increased slowly. In the future, the temperature in this area will continue to rise strongly, and the precipitation(precipitation intensity)will continue to decline(rise)weakly. In the past 61 years, the frequency and duration of extreme high temperature events in this area showed a large-scale upward trend, especially in northern Hebei and eastern Shandong. The frequency and duration of extreme low temperature events in central and southern Hebei and central Shandong decreased significantly. The extreme characteristics of precipitation in central Shandong and central and eastern Henan were significant. From 1970 to 2019, the disaster area(disaster rate)of crop flood, drought and hail in the study area showed a downward trend, and the disaster area(disaster rate)of low temperature freezing increased slightly. Drought and flood were the main agrometeorological disasters, and high temperature and precipitation had the most significant impact on them. [Conclusion] In the future, the crops in the central and northern Hebei and the central and eastern Shandong are more likely to be subjected to high temperature stress. The prevention of flood disasters in the central Shandong and the central and eastern Henan should be strengthened. The northeastern Hebei and western Henan should pay attention to sudden disasters such as wind hail and low temperature freezing.
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相似文献/References:
[1]雅 茹,丽 娜,银 山,等.1960-2015年内蒙古极端气候事件的时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2020,27(03):106.
YA Ru,LI Na,YIN Shan,et al.Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Climate Events in Inner Mongolia During the Period 1960-2015[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2020,27(04):106.
[2]蒋 帅,张 黎,景元书,等.1981-2015年中国区域极端气候事件的时空分布特征[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(06):295.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.018]
Jiang Shuai,Zhang Li,Jing Yuanshu,et al.Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Regional Extreme Climate Events in China from 1981 to 2015[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(04):295.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.06.018]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-04-21 修回日期:2022-06-01
资助项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(42071112,41771110)
第一作者:毛喜玲(1997—),女,甘肃定西人,硕士研究生,研究方向为环境变化与自然灾害。E-mail:snnumxl@163.com
通信作者:殷淑燕(1970—),女,黑龙江木兰人,博士,教授,主要从事气候变化与自然灾害研究。E-mail:yinshy@snnu.edu.cn