HUANG Zhe,YANG Yanfen.Comparative Study on the Simulation of Spatial Patterns of Land Use in the Yanhe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(06):268-274,283.
延河流域土地利用空间格局模拟对比研究
- Title:
- Comparative Study on the Simulation of Spatial Patterns of Land Use in the Yanhe River Basin
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2022)06-0268-07
- 关键词:
- 土地利用/覆被变化; CA-Markov模型; MCE模型; Logistic模型; 延河流域
- 分类号:
- F301.23
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为探究延河流域土地利用演变规律及未来空间格局分布,基于延河流域1986年、2000年和2010年3期土地利用数据,利用土地利用空间转移动态图及土地利用转移面积矩阵等方法,分析了延河流域1986—2010年土地利用/覆被变化的时空规律; 运用Logistic-CA-Markov模型和MCE-CA-Markov模型分别预测了2030年延河流域土地利用空间格局,并对模拟结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:延河流域1986—2010年耕地降幅最为明显,减少了557.10 km2,主要转为草地、林地和建设用地; 林地和草地面积持续增加,建设用地扩张迅速,分别增加了378.34,136.97,48.17 km2,水域及未利用地面积总体变化不大,生态恢复政策是影响延河流域土地利用变化的主要因子。Logistic-CA-Markov预测得到的2030年延河流域耕地和草地减少明显,建设用地和林地则增幅较大,流域经济发展需求较高,这种情况下应准确把握地区经济发展与资源利用的关系,根据区域特点因地制宜制定适合当地发展的政策。而MCE-CA-Markov预测得到的2030年延河流域耕地、林地、水域及建设用地均有增加,且耕地增幅最明显,这种利用结构表明流域经济发展相对较缓,实现了对流域环境的保护,但应积极探索土地利用新结构,最大限度发挥资源优势,从而实现流域经济与环境的可持续性发展。
- Abstract:
- To explore the law of land use evolution and future spatial pattern distribution in the Yanhe River Basin, based on the three phases of land use data of the Yanhe River Basin in 1986, 2000 and 2010, dynamic maps of land use spatial transfer, and area matrices of land use transition were used to analyse the temporal and spatial patterns of land use/cover change from 1986 to 2010 in the Yanhe River Basin. The Logistic-CA-Markov model and MCE-CA-Markov model were used to predict the spatial pattern of land use in the Yanhe River Basin in 2030, and the simulation results were compared and analysed. The results showed that cultivated land decreased obviously in the Yanhe River Basin from 1986 to 2010, with a decrease of 557.10 km2, which was mainly converted to grassland, woodland and construction land. The area of woodland and grassland continued to increase, and the construction land expanded rapidly, increasing by 378.34 km2, 136.97 km2 and 48.17 km2, respectively. The overall change of water and unused land area was not significant, and ecological restoration policy was the main factor affecting land use change in the Yanhe River Basin. Logistic-CA-Markov predicted that the cultivated land and grassland in the Yanhe River Basin will decrease obviously in 2030, while the construction land and woodland will increase greatly. This prediction result means that the demands for economic development of the basin are relatively high. In this situation, we should accurately grasp the relationship between regional economic development and resource utilisation, and formulate policies suitable for local development according to regional characteristics and local conditions. MCE-CA-Markov model predicted that the cultivated land, woodland, water area and construction land in the Yanhe River Basin will increase in 2030, and the increase in cultivated land will be the most obvious. This utilisation structure indicates that the economic development of the basin is relatively slow, and the protection of the environment will be realised. However, it is necessary to actively explore new land use structure and maximise resource advantages to fully realise sustainable development of economy and environment in the basin.
参考文献/References:
[1] 朱雅莉,张庆国,周晓飞.土地利用/覆被变化对区域气候的影响研究[J].安徽农学通报,2012,18(8):76-78.
[2] 伍飞舟,杨卓,牛健植,等.黄土高原丘陵沟壑区土地利用与水土保持措施的变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2010,17(2):10-14,19.
[3] 朱小林,郭青霞.基于CLUE-S模型的土地利用空间格局情景模拟:以忻州市忻府区为例[J].江苏农业科学,2020,48(4):254-259.
[4] 陈训争,范胜龙,林晓丹,等.基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的龙海市土地利用/覆被变化与模拟[J].福建农林大学学报:自然科学版,2017,46(6):685-691.
[5] 陆文涛,代超,郭怀成.基于Dyna-CLUE模型的滇池流域土地利用情景设计与模拟[J].地理研究,2015,34(9):1619-1629.
[6] 王慧,丁忠义,侯湖平,等.高潜水位煤矿区土地利用景观格局分析与模拟预测研究:以沛北煤矿区为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(3):574-582.
[7] 王美霞,任志远,王永明.千河流域土地利用空间格局模拟及其影响因素分析[J].测绘科学,2013,38(4):34-36,151.
[8] Mohamed A, Worku H. Simulating urban land use and cover dynamics using cellular automata and Markov chain approach in Addis Ababa and the surrounding[J]. Urban Climate, 2010,31:100545.
[9] Iacono M, Levinson D, El-Geneidy A, et al. A Markov chain model of land use change[J]. TeMA Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, 2015,8(3):263-276.
[10] Shikhar D, Akansha S. Urban sprawl modeling using cellular automata[J]. Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, 2014,17(2):179-187.
[11] Etemadi H, Smoak J M, Karami J. Land use change assessment in coastal mangrove forests of Iran utilizing satellite imagery and CA-Markov algorithms to monitor and predict future change[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2018,77(5):1-13.
[12] 何丹,金凤君,周璟.基于Logistic-CA-Markov的土地利用景观格局变化:以京津冀都市圈为例[J].地理科学,2011,31(8):903-910.
[13] 黄焕春,运迎霞.基于改进logistic-CA的城市形态多情景模拟预测分析:以天津滨海地区为例[J].地球信息科学学报,2013,15(3):380-388.
[14] 史名杰,武红旗,贾宏涛,等.基于MCE-CA-Markov和InVEST模型的伊犁谷地碳储量时空演变及预测[J/OL].农业资源与环境学报,2021,38(6):1010-1019.
[15] 杨洁,谢保鹏,张德罡.基于InVEST和CA-Markov模型的黄河流域碳储量时空变化研究[J].中国生态农业学报(中英文),2021,29(6):1018-1029.
[16] 龚文峰,王鑫鑫,曹凯华,等.基于RS和GIS五常市土地利用变化及模拟研究[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2019,10(2):15-22.
[17] 吴婷.基于CLUE-S模型的南京市土地利用变化模拟[D].武汉:武汉大学,2019.
[18] 阮俊杰,苏敬华,黄宇驰,等.上海市青浦区土地利用时空格局模拟研究[J].中国农学通报,2018,34(3):112-119.
[19] Pontius R G, Schneider L C. Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2001,85(1/3):239-248.
[20] 朱凯妮.基于CA-Markov和CLUE-S模型的德昌县耕地预测对比研究[D].天津:天津工业大学,2020.
相似文献/References:
[1]余慧容,蒲春玲,刘志有,等.基于TM/ETM+绿洲城市土地利用时空演变分析——以新疆奎屯市为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):147.
YU Hui-rong,PU Chun-ling,LIU Zhi-you,et al.Analysis on Spatial-temporal Land-use Changes of Oasis City-A Case Study of Kuytun City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):147.
[2]赵晶晶,张玮,高伟明.昌黎黄金海岸国家级自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):211.
ZHAO Jing-jing,ZHANG Wei,GAO Wei-ming.Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Driving Forces in Changli Gold Coast National Nature Reserve[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):211.
[3]田媛,许月卿,吴艳芳.环京津冀北贫困带土地利用/覆被变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):82.
TIAN Yuan,XU Yue-qing,WU Yan-fang.Study on Land Use/Land Cover Change in the Northern Poverty Belt of Hebei Province around Beijing and Tianjin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):82.
[4]孙丽娜,宋戈.松嫩高平原黑土区土地利用/覆被变化及其景观生态风险分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):148.
SUN Li-na,SONG Ge.Land Use/Cover Change and Its Landscape Ecological Risk Analysis in the Black Soil Region of Songnen High Plain——A Case Study of Bayan County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(06):148.
[5]蒙吉军,吴秀芹,李正国.黑河流域LUCC(1988-2000)的生态环境效应研究[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(04):17.
MENG Ji-jun,WU Xiu-qin,LI Zheng-guo.Eco-environmental Responses of Land Use/Cover Changes (1988～2000) in Heihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(06):17.
[6]郝仕龙,曹连海,李壁成.小尺度土地利用/覆被变化驱动力研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(02):228.
HAO Shi-long,CAO Lian-hai,LI Bi-cheng.Study on Driving Force of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Small Scale[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(06):228.
[7]邵怀勇,仙巍,周万村,等.三峡工程实施十年间库区土地利用/覆被时空变化研究——以开县为例[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(03):243.
SHAO Huai-yong,XIAN Wei,ZHOU Wan-cun,et al.Research on the Spatial-temporal Process of Land Use/ Cover Change in Reservoir Area During the Ten Years of Three Gorges Project’s Constructing——A Case Study of Kaixian[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(06):243.
[8]张艳,张祖陆,张会海,等.咸水入侵区土地利用/覆被变化的水环境效应分析——以昌邑市为例[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(02):53.
ZHANG Yan,ZHANG Zu-lu,ZHANG Hui-hai,et al.Analysis of Water Environment of the Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Salt-Water Intrusion Area of Changyi City——Take Changyi City as a Case Study[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(06):53.
[9]郑泽忠,范东明,曹云刚,等.四川省土地利用/覆被变化数据库建立与应用研究[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(04):64.
ZHENG Ze-zhong,FAN Dong-ming,CAO Yun-gang,et al.Establishment and Application of Land-use/cover Change Databases in Sichuan Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(06):64.
[10]黄会平,张岑.基于3S的干旱区土地利用/覆被变化及其对水资源的影响分析——以张掖市甘州区为例[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(04):270.
HUANG Hui-ping,ZHANG Cen.LUCC and Analysis of Water Resources Effect in Arid Area—A Case of Ganzhou District, Zhangye, Gnasu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(06):270.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2021-09-27 修回日期:2021-10-15
资助项目:中国科学院西部青年学者项目“延河流域气候和土地利用变化的水文响应”
第一作者:黄哲(1997—),女,湖南常德人,硕士研究生,研究方向为土壤侵蚀与水文模拟。E-mail:hz18404980652@163.com
通信作者:杨艳芬(1984—),女,宁夏银川人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事土壤侵蚀与水文模拟研究。E-mail:yfyang@ms.iswc.ac.cn