[1]汤 琦,余珮珩,陈泽怡,等.共享社会经济路径下土地利用变化模拟[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(01):301-310.
　TANG Qi,YU Peiheng,CHEN Zeyi,et al.Simulation of Land Use Change Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(01):301-310.
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共享社会经济路径下土地利用变化模拟

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 29 期数: 2022年01期 页码: 301-310 栏目: 出版日期: 2022-02-20
Title:
Simulation of Land Use Change Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
文章编号:
1005-3409(2022)01-0301-10
作者:
汤 琦1,2, 余珮珩3, 陈泽怡2, 白少云4, 陈奕云2,5
(1.广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院, 广州 510060; 2.武汉大学 资源与环境科学学院, 武汉 430079; 3.香港理工大学 建筑及房地产学系, 香港 999077; 4.云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院, 昆明 650021; 5.剑桥大学 发展研究中心, 英国 剑桥CB39DT)
Author(s):
TANG Qi1,2, YU Peiheng3, CHEN Zeyi2, BAI Shaoyun4, CHEN Yiyun2,5
(1.Guangzhou Urban Planning & Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China; 2.School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; 3.Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hongkong Polytechnic University, Hongkong 999077, China; 4.Yunnan Survey and Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Kunming 650021, China; 5.Centre of Development Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB39DT, England)
关键词:
土地利用变化;  情景分析;  共享社会经济路径;  未来土地利用模拟模型;  气候变化
Keywords:
land use change;  scenario analysis;  shared socioeconomic pathways;  future land use simulation;  climate change
分类号:
F301; P901
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对高原湖滨地区土地利用无序扩张等问题,构建共享社会经济路径(SSPs)与未来土地利用模拟模型相结合的研究框架,并选取云贵高原湖泊分布最为密集的通海县、华宁县及江川区为研究区,开展不同SSPs情景下的未来土地利用模拟。结果表明:(1)SSP1情景下建设用地与农用地集约利用程度提升,且大量其他用地被转化为生态用地,是高原湖滨地区最为理想的未来发展模式;(2)SSP2情景下研究区保持现有发展趋势,土地利用变化自然发展;(3)SSP3情景下人类活动对自然环境的干扰随时间变化逐步加强,是未来高原湖滨地区发展需要避免的情景;(4)SSP4情景下研究区发展不平衡情况严重,经济增长缓慢,难以与生态实现协同发展;(5)SSP5情景下研究区以大量能源消耗为代价,土地利用变化强度先增大,后逐步减弱并达到稳定的状态。SSPs为未来土地利用模拟模型的参数设置提供了内涵和依据,两者结合可为云贵高原湖滨地区的可持续发展提供决策依据。
Abstract:
To address the problem of land use sprawl in lakeside areas on the plateau, we proposed the research framework that combined the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)and future land use simulation(FLUS)model. Then Tonghai County, Huanning County and Jiangchuan District where lakes most densely distribute on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau were selected as the study areas to carry out future land use simulations under different SSPs scenarios. The results show that:(1)the intensive uses of construction land and agricultural land increased under the SSP1 scenario, and a large amount of other land was converted into ecological land, which was the most ideal future development model for the lakeside areas on the plateau;(2)the study area maintained the existing development trend under the SSP2 scenario, and the land use changes developed naturally;(3)SSP3 scenario had a high degree of land use development and change dynamics, which was the scenario to be avoided in future social development;(4)under the SSP4 scenario, the unbalanced development of the study area was serious, the economic growth was slow, and it was difficult to achieve coordinated development with ecology;(5)under the SSP5 scenario, the intensity of land use change in the study area increased firstly, then weakened gradually and reached to a stable state at the cost of a large amount of energy. SSPs can provide the connotation and basis for the parameter setting of land use simulation model. The combination of SSPs and FLUS can provide a decision-making basis for sustainable development of the lakeside area in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The SSPs can provide the parameters for the future land use simulation model. SSPs provide connotation and basis for parameter setting of the model, and the combination of the two can provide decision basis for sustainable development of the lakeshore area in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2020-12-23 修回日期:2021-01-29
资助项目:国家自然科学基金项目“面向精细土壤碳制图的平原地区农田土壤有机碳空间分异机理研究”(41771440)
第一作者:汤琦(1994—),女,广东广州人,硕士,研究方向为土地利用变化与可持续发展研究。E-mail:tangqi@whu.edu.cn
通信作者:陈奕云(1983—),男,福建泉州人,博士,副教授,研究方向为地理信息科学与可持续发展研究。E-mail:chenyy@whu.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 2022-02-20