ZENG Shengxuan,GU Juan,HE Chansheng.Variability and Persistence of Climate in the Agricultural-Pastoral Transitional Zone in the Central Part of the Northwest China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(04):356-364.
西北农牧交错带中部气候变化特征及其持续性
- Title:
- Variability and Persistence of Climate in the Agricultural-Pastoral Transitional Zone in the Central Part of the Northwest China
- 关键词:
- 农牧交错带; 气候变化; Mann-Kendall检验; Hurst指数; R/S方法
- Keywords:
- farming-pastoral transitional zone; climate change; Mann-Kendall method; Hurst index; R/S method
- 分类号:
- P467
- 摘要:
- 近年来西北农牧交错带增温明显且干旱事件频发，对生态系统和农牧业生产造成非常严重的影响，认识该区域的气候特征及持续性特征对防范未来可能面临的灾害及政策调整有重要意义。利用20世纪50年代到2014年的月气象观测资料，采用回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验、极差分析法对西北农牧交错带中部近60年来的气候特征变化进行了分析，主要包括温度和降水在年和季节尺度的变化特征及其持续性特征。结果表明：研究区内年和季节平均温度呈较强的增加趋势，夏季增加幅度最小，冬季最大。年降水量呈微弱的减少趋势，但秋季降水量呈增加趋势，年降水量的减少主要是由夏季的降水所导致。平均温度在90年代左右产生了明显的增加突变，降水的变化集中在60年代、90年代以及2010年左右。平均温度呈较强的持续性，降水量呈微弱的反持续性，表明研究区未来的气候短期内会向暖湿化发展。
- Abstract:
- In recent years，the agricultural-pastoral transitional zone in the northwest China has experienced the significant warming trend, leading to serious impacts on the ecosystems and livelihood of farmers and herdsmen. It is vital to understand the climatic variability and the persistence of the region to prepare for and mitigate future disastrous events. Monthly meteorological data from 1950s to the year 2014 were used to analyze climatic characteristics at different time scales by regression analysis, Mann-Kendall test and rescaled range analysis. The results show that the average annual and seasonal temperatures in the study area presented the strong increasing trend with the largest increase in winter temperature and the smallest increase in summer temperature; the annual precipitation in the study area presented the decreasing trend, but the seasonal precipitation in autumn was increasing; the decreasing trend in the annual precipitation was mainly due to the reduced precipitation in summer; the average annual temperature in the study area displayed the obvious changes during the 1990s, but the changes in the precipitation occurred in the 1960s, 1990s, and around the year 2010. The average temperatures in the study area showed the strong increasing persistence while the annual and seasonal precipitations showed the slightly decreasing anti-persistence, indicating that the future climate of the study area would become warmer and wetter in the short term.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2017-08-08;改回日期:2017-09-05。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目（91125010；41530752）
作者简介:曾晟轩(1993-),男,甘肃定西人,硕士研究生,研究方向为地表气候水热变化。E-mail:zengshx15@lzu.edu.cn
通讯作者:贺缠生(1958-),男,陕西蓝田人,博士,"千人计划"特聘教授,博士生导师,主要从事流域水文过程和水文模型。E-mail:cshe@lzu.edu.cn