ZHANG Weimin,WANG Jinghong.Variation Characteristics of the Accumulated Temperature of Jujube Planting Zones in the Hilly Region of the Loess Plateau over the Past 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(06):232-237.
黄土高原红枣种植区积温变化特征分析
- Title:
- Variation Characteristics of the Accumulated Temperature of Jujube Planting Zones in the Hilly Region of the Loess Plateau over the Past 40 Years
- 关键词:
- 积温; 变化趋势; 突变; Morlet小波分析
- 分类号:
- P467
- 摘要:
- 为了揭示黄土高原红枣种植区积温的变化特征，为红枣产业的布局和科学管理提供依据。利用1971—2010年12个气象站日平均气温资料，运用线性倾向估计、M-K及小波分析等方法，对≥0℃，5℃，10℃积温及负积温的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明，40年来≥0℃，5℃，10℃积温呈增加趋势，气候倾向率分别为64.557℃/10 a，66.235℃/10 a，48.023℃/10 a。负积温呈减少趋势，气候倾向率为-33.759℃/10 a。持续日数呈增加趋势，各界限温度初日呈提前趋势，终日除10℃外均呈推后趋势。各界限温度积温均发生突变现象，负积温突变出现最早1986年，其次为≥0℃积温1995年，≥5℃、≥10℃积温1996年；各界限温度积温变化存在多时间尺度的周期变化特征，具有2～4，9～11，32～33 a左右的周期振荡，其中32～33 a左右的周期最为明显。黄土高原红枣种植区近40 a来0℃以上各界限温度积温和持续时间呈增加趋势，热量资源明显改善，适宜种植红枣的区域扩大；但需采取有效措施防御可能发生的干旱灾害及红枣病虫害。
- Abstract:
- In order to understand the variation characteristics of accumulated temperature of jujube planting zones in the hilly region of the Loess Plateau and provide decision basis for distribution and scientific management of jujube, based on the daily temperature in twelve weather stations of the jujube planting zones in the hilly region of the Loess Plateau from 1971 to 2010, we analyzed the variation characteristics of ≥ 0℃, ≥ 5℃, ≥ 10℃accumulated temperatures and negative accumulated temperature change by means of linear trend estimates, M-K test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results indicated that the ≥ 0℃, ≥ 5℃, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperatures showed an increasing trend over 40 years and they are increasing significantly by 64.557℃/decade, 66.235℃/decaced and 48.023℃/decade, respectively. The negative accumulated temperatures decreased by 33.759℃/decade. The lasting days of accumulated temperature have increased too, the trend of beginning dates of accumulated temperatures appeared ahead. On the other hand, the ending dates were delayed except ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperature. The main boundary temperature had an obvious warming mutation, the negative accumulated temperature changed at the earliest abruptly in 1986, followed by ≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature(1995), ≥ 5℃, ≥ 10℃ accumulated temperatures(1996). The main boundary temperature was fluctuating periodically with the variation of temporal scale, with 2~4,9~11,32~33 years fluctuation. The accumulated temperature of the main boundary and the lasting days had increasing trend and the heat resources improved significantly, the suitability areas for jujube expanded, but effective measures need to be taken for preventing the drought disaster and insect pests and diseases.
参考文献/References:
[1] 郑大玮,孙忠富.关于积温一词及其度量单位科学性问题的讨论[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(2):165-169.
[2] 段若溪,姜会飞.农业气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[3] 古书鸿,严小冬,石艳,等.贵州省温度界限内积温特征分析[J].北京:中国农业气象,2011,32(4):521-524.
[4] 屈振江.陕西农作物生育期热量资源对气候变化的响应研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(1):75-79.
[5] 殷雪莲,何金梅,郭萍萍.河西走廊中部 ≥ 10℃界限温度演变特征及其对玉米生产的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(6):236-243.
[6] 马理辉,吴普特,汪有科.黄土丘陵半干旱区密植枣林随树龄变化的根系空间分布特征[J].植物生态学报,2012,36(4):292-301.
[7] 李锐,刘国彬.改善生态与富民增收是黄土高原生态建设的中心[J].中国科学院院刊,2000,15(3):193-196.
[8] 李振朝,韦志刚,文军,等.近50年黄土高原气候变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(3):57-62.
[9] 李志,赵西宁.1961-2009年黄土高原气象要素的时空变化分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(2):287-299.
[10] 王毅荣.1961-2005年黄土高原地区积温演变[J].冰川冻土,2007,29(1):119-125.
[11] 韩湘玲,孔扬庄.关于"界限温度"确定方法的讨论[J].中国农业气象,1984(3):55-57.
[12] 王树廷.关于日平均气温稳定通过各级界限温度初终日期的统计方法[J].气象,1982(6):29-30.
[13] 刘实,王勇,缪启龙,等.近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):266-278.
[14] 王健,吕新,王江丽,等.石河子市近57年积温变化趋势特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(6):154-159.
[15] 孙杨,张雪芹,郑度.气候变暖对西北干旱区农业气候资源的影响[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(7):1153-1162.
[16] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[17] 蒲金涌,李晓薇,李蓉.天水市1961-2010年积温变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):34-39.
[18] 万明波,程智,王文.青藏铁路沿线气温和降水的小波分析[J].干旱气象,2006,24(4):35-39.
[19] 缪启龙,丁园圆,王勇,等.气候变暖对中国热量资源分布的影响分析[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(5):934-944.
[20] 刘淑梅,高浩,黎贞发.气候变暖对天津农作物种植结构的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009(S1):42-46.
[21] 李瑞英,任崇勇,张翠翠,等.气候变化背景下鲁西南地区农业气候资源变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(6):254-260.
[22] 李新岗,黄建,高文海.我国制干枣优生区研究[J].果树学报,2005,22(6):620-625.
[23] 高桂芹,齐作辉.冬季负积温变化特征及其对冬小麦的影响[J].气象科技,2007,35(3):404-406.
[24] 杨小利,辛吉武.甘肃省冬季负积温资源的变化特征及预测[J].资源科学,2007,29(4):114-120.
[25] 李菊香,郭洪杰,谷永利,等.冀南地区冬季负积温特征及趋势分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(33):20855-20856.
[26] 高庆九,张荣,管兆勇.近50a来华北地区负积温变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2012,35(4):448-457.
相似文献/References:
[1]毛学森,刘昌明.太行山山前平原地下水变化趋势与农业持续发展[J].水土保持研究,2001,8(01):147.
MAO Xuesen,LIU Changming.Ground Water Changing Trends and Agriculture Sustainable Development in Taihang Mountain-foot Plain of North China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2001,8(06):147.
[2]林永贤,林清俊.漳州土壤水力侵蚀变化趋势与治理研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(01):59.
LIN Yong-xian,LIN Qing-jun.The Researches of Controlling and Variation Tendency of the Soil Erosion of Hydraulic Power in Zhangzhou[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(06):59.
[3]胡伟,姚磊.新疆库车县近40 a来气温与蒸发量变化趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2008,15(03):93.
HU Wei,YAO Lei.The Trend Analysis on Air Temperature and Evaporation in Kuche County During Recent 40 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2008,15(06):93.
[4]张星,陈惠,林秀芳.近45年闽江流域气候变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(01):107.
ZHANG Xing,CHEN Hui,Lin Xiu-fang.Changes of Climatic Features in the Minjiang River Basin in Recent 45 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(06):107.
[5]刘新春,何清,钟玉婷.新疆城市酸雨分布特征及变化趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(01):115.
LIU Xin-chun,HE Qing,ZHONG Yu-ting.Analysis of Distribution and Variation Trend of Acid Rain in the Cities of Xinjiang[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(06):115.
[6]张娜,张心昱,高鲁鹏.长期监测水体可溶性有机碳变化趋势与影响因子研究进展[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(03):286.
ZHANG Xin-yu,GAO Lu-peng.Overview on the Increasing Trends and Their Influencing Factors of Long-term Monitoring of Water Dissolved Organic Carbon[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(06):286.
[7]颜明,许炯心,王宁.黄土高原沙尘暴时空分布格局及变化趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(06):6.
YAN Ming,XU Jiong-xin,WANG Ning.The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Sand-dust Storms and Tendency in the Loess Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(06):6.
[8]王颖华,张鑫.西宁市降水量特征及变化趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(05):156.
WANG Ying-hua,ZHANG Xin.Analysis on the Characteristic and Change Trend of Precipitation in Xi’ning City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(06):156.
[9]贾科利,张俊华.宁夏中部干旱带土地利用变化及驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(06):62.
JIA Ke-li,ZHANG Jun-hua.Analysis on Land Use Change and Its Driving Forces in Arid Area of Central Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(06):62.
[10]王国强,张勃,张耀宗,等.甘肃省近55年来积温变化趋势特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(05):193.
WANG Guoqiang,ZHANG Bo,ZHANG Yaozong,et al.Variation Tendency of Accumulated Temperature in Gansu Province in Recent 55 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(06):193.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2015-11-27;改回日期:2015-12-12。
基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项“气候变化对黄土高原丘陵区红枣产业的影响研究”（CCSF201319）
作者简介:张维敏(1985-),女,陕西大荔人,硕士,工程师,从事农业气象研究和相关业务工作。E-mail:404312067@qq.com