YE Zhengwei.Precipitation Change and Its Trend in Recent 50 Years in the Coastal Region of Jiangsu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(01):176-180.
江苏沿海开发地区近50年来降水演变特征与趋势
- Title:
- Precipitation Change and Its Trend in Recent 50 Years in the Coastal Region of Jiangsu Province
- 分类号:
- P332.1
- 摘要:
- 利用1960—2009年10个代表气象站降水资料，采用多方法分析了江苏沿海开发地区的降水特征与趋势。结果表明：年降水量波动频繁，南部较北部略偏多，盐城波动幅最大，南通最小；其年代变化上，南通为持续增加趋势，盐城以1960s降水量最多，其后大幅减少，而连云港则总体偏低，且年代际变幅最大。汛期降水量上，沿海北部较南部偏大，波动幅度与年降水量类似；汛期降水年代变化上，南通总体仍呈增加趋势；而盐城则总体减少，以1970s最低；连云港以1980s为最低值，此前偏高，此后略有增加。2000年以来的旱涝波动更为频繁，并以涝为主。近50 a来南通、盐城的年降水呈较弱的减小趋势，连云港则呈增加趋势，而汛期降水量的变化趋势则与年降水量相反。未来趋势上，南通、盐城、连云港的年降水量仍将分别呈现减少、减少、增加的趋势，汛期降水量也仍将分别表现为增加、增加、减少的趋势。
- Abstract:
- Multiple methods were applied to detect the characteristic of precipitation and its trend in 1960—2009 in the coastal region of Jiangsu Province. Frequent fluctuation can be found in annual precipitation with more rainfall appeared in southern part while less in northern part, and maximum change range occurred in Yancheng while minimum in Nantong. An increasing trend for decadal annual precipitation can be seen in Nantong while Yancheng occurred maximum precipitation in 1980s and it decreased greatly ever since then, Lianyungang was proved to be less decadal precipitation and it had the maximum change range. For precipitation in flood season, it is demonstrated that more precipitation appeared in the northern part while less precipitation in the southern part, but the change range in flood season is similar to that of annual precipitation. However, a continuous increase trend for decadal flood season precipitation can be outlined in Nantong, while minimum precipitation appeared in 1970s and 1980s in Yancheng and Lianyungang, respectively, but the former has a relatively lower decadal precipitation in flood season while the latter has higher value before 1980s and lower value after 1980s. SPI analysis showed that more frequent shift in flood and drought presented in 2000s with more flood dominated implying the effect of the northward advance of the Jianghuai Plum rain belt. A slight decreasing trend can be detected in Nantong and Yancheng for the trend of annual precipitation while increasing trend in Lianyungang, but a reversed trend can be pre-assessed in Nantong, Yancheng and Lianyungang, respectively for precipitation in flood season. R/S analysis reveals that decreasing trend will continue into the near future in Nantong and Yancheng while increasing trend in Lianyungang for annual precipitation, but for precipitation in flood season, increasing trend will continue in Nantong and Yancheng while decreasing trend in Lianyungang.
参考文献/References:
[1] IPCC. Climate Change 2007:The physical science basis:summary for policy makers[M]. Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[2] 丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1):3-8.
[3] 张强,孙鹏,陈喜,等1956-2000年中国地表水资源状况:变化特征、成因及影响[J].地理科学,2011,31(12):1430-1436.
[4] 胡娅敏,丁一汇.2000年以来江淮梅雨带北移的可能成因分析[J].气象,2009,35(12):37-43.
[5] 单树模,王庭槐,金其铭.江苏省地理[M].南京:江苏教育出版社,1986.
[6] 杨山,潘婧,季增民.耗散结构视角下连云港港城系统演进机理及规律研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(9):781-787.
[7] 王千,金晓斌,周寅康.江苏沿海地区耕地景观生态安全格局变化与驱动机制[J].生态学报,2011,31(20):5903-5909.
[8] 周生路,李如海,王黎明.江苏省农用地资源分等研究[M].南京:东南大学出版社,2004.
[9] 戴亚南,张鹰.江苏沿海地区海洋灾害类型及其防治探讨[J].生态环境,2006,15(6):1417-14201.
[10] 谭丽荣,陈珂,王军,等.近20 a来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2011,31(9):1111-1117.
[11] 石勇,许世远,石纯,等.沿海区域水灾脆弱性及风险的的初步分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):853-857.
[12] 张忍顺,陆丽云,王艳红.江苏海岸侵蚀过程及其趋势[J].地理研究,2002,21(4):469-479.
[13] 杨桂山,施雅风,季子修,等.江苏沿海地区的相对海平面上升及其灾害性影响研究[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(1):88-97.
[14] 叶正伟,许有鹏,徐金涛.江苏里下河地区洪涝灾害演变趋势与成灾机理分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):880-885.
[15] Mann H B. Nonparametric tests against trend[J]. Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[16] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[17] Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders M A. A drought climatology for Europe[J]. Int.J.Climatol.,2002,22(13):1571-1592.
[18] Hurst H E. Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs[J]. Transactions of the American Society of Civil,1951,116:770-808.
[19] Mandelbr B B, Wallis J R. Robustness of rescaled range R/S in measurement of noncyclic long run statistical dependence[J]. Water Resources Research,1969,5(5):967-988.
相似文献/References:
[1]张月丛,张才玉,成福伟,等.承德市近58年气温和降水序列多时间尺度分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(05):70.
ZHANG Yue-cong,ZHANG Cai-yu,CHENG Fu-wei,et al.Multi-Time Scale Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Recent 58 Years in Chengde City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):70.
[2]江和文,郭婷婷,包颖,等.辽宁省近50年旱涝灾害的时空特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):29.
JIANG He-wen,GUO Ting-ting,BAO Ying,et al.Spatiotemporal Distribution of Drought and Flood Disasters over the Last 50 Years of Liaoning Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):29.
[3]郭晓军,苏凤洹,洪勇,等.蒋家沟流域雨季降水中氢氧同位素特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):82.
GUO Xiao-jun,SU Feng-huan,HONG Yong,et al.Characteristics of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes in Rainy Season Precipitation in Jiangjiagou Watershed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):82.
[4]何毅,王飞,穆兴民,等.近60年关中一天水经济区降水量特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):65.
HE Yi,WANG Fei,MU Xing-min,et al.Analysis on Characteristic of Precipitation in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone in Recent 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):65.
[5]白桦,穆兴民,高鹏,等.嘉陵江流域降水及径流演变规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):102.
BAI Hua,MU Xing-min,GAO Peng,et al.Analysis on Spatio-temporal Variation of Precipitation and Streamflow in the Jialingjiang River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(01):102.
[6]张荣峰.城市降水贮留入渗措施探讨[J].水土保持研究,1997,4(01):45.
Zhang Rongfeng.Approaches to the Rainfall Storage and Infiltration Measures in City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1997,4(01):45.
[7]李兴贵.森林覆盖与生态环境[J].水土保持研究,1997,4(01):216.
Li Xinggui.The Forest Covering and Ecological Environment[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1997,4(01):216.
[8]徐学选,高鹏,蒋定生.延安降水对农作物生长适宜性的模糊分析[J].水土保持研究,2000,7(02):73.
XU Xue xuan,GAO Peng,JIANG Dingsheng.Fuzzy Analysis on the Suitability of Precipitation to the Agro-Crops Growing in Yan’an City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2000,7(01):73.
[9]吴正华.北京泥石流灾害及其降水触发条件[J].水土保持研究,2001,8(01):67.
WU Zhenghua.The Mud-rock Flow Disaster and Their Touch off Condition by Rainfall in Beijing Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2001,8(01):67.
[10]阎静红,李旭.内蒙古水土保持与降雨资源利用[J].水土保持研究,2002,9(03):73.
YAN Jinghong,LI Xu.Soil and Water Conservation in Inner Mongolia and the Use of Rainfall Resources[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2002,9(01):73.
[11]李烁阳,刘小燕,杨贵羽,等.湖北省降水及旱涝时空分布特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(02):202.
LI Shuoyang,LIU Xiaoyan,YANG Guiyu,et al.Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Precipitation and Drought in Hubei Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(01):202.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2014-04-22;改回日期:2014-05-18。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41471425）；教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目（10YJC790342）；江苏省教育厅高校哲社科学研究（2011SJB790005）；江苏省高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师
作者简介:叶正伟(1973-),男,安徽黄山人,博士,副教授,主要从事水文气象与自然灾害方面的研究。E-mail:leafyzw@163.com