[1]赵鹏宇,徐学选,张丽,等.基于灰色理论的忻州市适宜退耕还林面积预测[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(02):299-301,308.
　ZHAO Peng-yu,XU Xue-xuan,ZHANG Li,et al.Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Xinzhou City Based on Grey Theory[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(02):299-301,308.
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基于灰色理论的忻州市适宜退耕还林面积预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 20 期数: 2013年02期 页码: 299-301,308 栏目: 出版日期: 2013-04-28
Title:
Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Xinzhou City Based on Grey Theory
作者:
赵鹏宇1, 徐学选2, 张丽3, 吴攀升1, 郑庆荣1, 崔嫱1
1. 忻州师范学院 地理系, 山西 忻州 034000;
2. 中国科学院 水利部 水土保持研究所, 陕西 杨凌 712100;
3. 忻州市统计局, 山西 忻州 034000
Author(s):
ZHAO Peng-yu1, XU Xue-xuan2, ZHANG Li3, WU Pan-sheng1, ZHENG Qing-rong1, CUI Qiang1
1. Department of Geography, Xinzhou Teachers University, Xinzhou, Shanxi 034000, China;
2. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, YangLing, Shaanxi 712100, China;
3. Statistics Bureau of Xinzhou City, Xinzhou, Shanxi 034000, China
关键词:
忻州市; 退耕还林; 灰色模型
Keywords:
Xinzhou City; grain for forest and grass; grey mode
分类号:
S721
摘要:
退耕还林工程是忻州市最大的生态工程，全市退耕比例高达23.08%。根据2000—2010年忻州市统计年鉴资料，分析了退耕还林还草对当地粮食产量和粮食需求量关系的影响。运用灰色理论的GM（1，1）预测模型，分别建立了粮食总产、人口、粮食单产和人均粮食消费的预测模型，并利用模型预测得到2012—2016年忻州市适宜退耕还林面积分别为15 450，14 056，12 052，13 856，10 429 hm2，结果表明：忻州市可以继续推行退耕还林草工程。但研究中所取得的未来5 a适宜退耕面积只是理论值，仅是为忻州市实施退耕还林草工程提供参考。
Abstract:
Grain for forest and grass (GFG) project is the largest ecological engineering in Xinzhou and the percentage of the GFG area is up to as much as 23.08%. How the GFG influenced the relationship between local grain output and demand was analyzed. Basedd on local statistical yearbooks (2000—2010), with the help of grey predicting method GM (1, 1), predicting models about total output, population, unit area output, grain consumption per capita was established. It predicted that the GFG area in Xinzhou from 2012 to 2016 would be 15 450, 14 056, 12 052, 13 856 hm2 and 10 429 hm2, resectively. It shows that the GFG can be carried on in Xinzhou continually while five predicting data were only the theoretical values of the suitable area of the GFG, which are just a reference for the GFG in Xinzhou City.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2012-08-08;改回日期:2012-10-10。
基金项目:2012年忻州师范学院专题研究项目（ZT201214）；2012年山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目（20122212）
作者简介:赵鹏宇(1981-),男,山西保德人,硕士研究生,助教,主要从事植物土壤与水土保持方面的研究。E-mail:497154516@qq.com
通讯作者:徐学选(1966-),男,陕西大荔人,博导,研究员,主要从事水土保持方面的研究。E-mail:xuxuexuan@nwsuaf.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01