[1]赵鹏宇,徐学选,张丽,等.基于灰色理论的忻州市适宜退耕还林面积预测[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(02):299-301,308.
　ZHAO Peng-yu,XU Xue-xuan,ZHANG Li,et al.Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Xinzhou City Based on Grey Theory[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,20(02):299-301,308.
点击复制

基于灰色理论的忻州市适宜退耕还林面积预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 20 期数: 2013年02期 页码: 299-301,308 栏目: 出版日期: 2013-04-28
Title:
Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Xinzhou City Based on Grey Theory
作者:
赵鹏宇1, 徐学选2, 张丽3, 吴攀升1, 郑庆荣1, 崔嫱1
1. 忻州师范学院 地理系, 山西 忻州 034000;
2. 中国科学院 水利部 水土保持研究所, 陕西 杨凌 712100;
3. 忻州市统计局, 山西 忻州 034000
Author(s):
ZHAO Peng-yu1, XU Xue-xuan2, ZHANG Li3, WU Pan-sheng1, ZHENG Qing-rong1, CUI Qiang1
1. Department of Geography, Xinzhou Teachers University, Xinzhou, Shanxi 034000, China;
2. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, YangLing, Shaanxi 712100, China;
3. Statistics Bureau of Xinzhou City, Xinzhou, Shanxi 034000, China
关键词:
忻州市; 退耕还林; 灰色模型
Keywords:
Xinzhou City; grain for forest and grass; grey mode
分类号:
S721
摘要:
退耕还林工程是忻州市最大的生态工程，全市退耕比例高达23.08%。根据2000—2010年忻州市统计年鉴资料，分析了退耕还林还草对当地粮食产量和粮食需求量关系的影响。运用灰色理论的GM（1，1）预测模型，分别建立了粮食总产、人口、粮食单产和人均粮食消费的预测模型，并利用模型预测得到2012—2016年忻州市适宜退耕还林面积分别为15 450，14 056，12 052，13 856，10 429 hm2，结果表明：忻州市可以继续推行退耕还林草工程。但研究中所取得的未来5 a适宜退耕面积只是理论值，仅是为忻州市实施退耕还林草工程提供参考。
Abstract:
Grain for forest and grass (GFG) project is the largest ecological engineering in Xinzhou and the percentage of the GFG area is up to as much as 23.08%. How the GFG influenced the relationship between local grain output and demand was analyzed. Basedd on local statistical yearbooks (2000—2010), with the help of grey predicting method GM (1, 1), predicting models about total output, population, unit area output, grain consumption per capita was established. It predicted that the GFG area in Xinzhou from 2012 to 2016 would be 15 450, 14 056, 12 052, 13 856 hm2 and 10 429 hm2, resectively. It shows that the GFG can be carried on in Xinzhou continually while five predicting data were only the theoretical values of the suitable area of the GFG, which are just a reference for the GFG in Xinzhou City.

参考文献/References:

[1] 忻州市统计局.忻州统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2009.
[2] 贺金红,廖允成,胡兵辉,等.黄土高原坡耕地退耕还林草还草的生态经济效应研究[J].农业现代化研究,2006,27(2):110-114.
[3] 郑纪勇.退耕还林(草)过程中陕北粮食问题初探[J].生态经济:专家论坛,2004(9):46-50.
[4] 冬梅.退耕还林草对我国宏观粮食安全影响的实证分析[J].中国软科学,2006(4):46-54.
[5] 封志明,张蓬涛,宋玉.西北地区退耕对粮食生产的可能影响[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(3):299-306
[6] 高雪松,邓良基,凌静.基于系统平衡的四川省耕地面积预测研究[J].四川农业大学学报,2007,25(4):436-446.
[7] 姚慧敏,张锡金,朱振林.济南市粮食安全与耕地数量变化的相关分析[J].山东农业科学,2008(1):87-89.
[8] 石丽丽,谷建才,何淑娟.河北省退耕还林对粮食生产的影响[J].中国水土保持科学,2009,7(3):104-107.
[9] 刘思峰.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[10] 张圣勤.MATLAB 7.0实用教程[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2006.
[11] 中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.

相似文献/References:

[1]韩磊,郑佳丽,贺康宁,等.青海省大通县退耕还林对土壤理化性质的影响[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(03):100.
　HAN Lei,ZHENG Jia-li,HE Kang-ning,et al.Effect of Returning Farmland into Forest on Soil Physicochemical Properties in Datong County of Qinghai Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(02):100.
[2]赵发珠,韩新辉,杨改河,等.黄土丘陵区不同退耕还林地土壤有机碳、氮密度变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(04):43.
　ZHAO Fa-zhu,HAN Xin-hui,YANG Gai-he,et al.Change Characteristics of Density of Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen under Land Shifted into Forestland in Hilly Loess Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):43.
[3]李有华,王晓斌,刘润栓.搞好退耕还林需着重解决的几个问题[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(01):110.
　LI You-hua,WANG Xiao-bin,LIU Run-shuan.Problems of Converting Slope Farmland Into Forest and Grassland[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,11(02):110.
[4]闫丽珍,闵庆文.退耕还林中“经济林”和“生态林”的概念和比例问题[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(03):50.
　YAN Li-zhen,MIN Qing-wen.Discussion on Concept and Proportion of Economic Forest and Ecologic Forest in Returning Cultivated Land to Forest[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,11(02):50.
[5]林明添,杨生健,邹得棉,等.大田县退耕还林成果及其效益分析[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(03):231.
　LIN Ming-tian,YANG Sheng-jian,ZOU De-mian,et al.Achievements of Returning Cultivated Land to Forests and Its Benefit Analysis in Datian County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2004,11(02):231.
[6]姚蓉.完善的后续政策是巩固退耕还林成果的重要前提[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(06):268.
　YAO Rong.Consummating Continuous Policy System to Consolidate Achievement of Converting Slope Farmland into Forest and Grassland[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(02):268.
[7]梁仁君,林振山,许汝贞.基于GIS的沂蒙山区退耕还林(草)规划方案分析[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(01):136.
　LIANG Ren-jun,LIN Zhen-shan,XU Ru-zhen.Analysis of Planning Scheme on Cultivated Land in Yimeng Mountains Returned to Forestland and Grassland Based on GIS[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(02):136.
[8]王海明,陈治谏,李贤伟,等.不同退耕还林林草模式土壤与林草间氮素变化规律研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(02):124.
　WANG Hai-ming,CHEN Zhi-jian,LI Xian-wei,et al.Study on the Soil Nutrient and Tree and Grass Nutrient Content Cycle of Different Forest and Grass System in Converting Agricultural Lands to Trees[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(02):124.
[9]贾俊姝,胡文忠,李文忠,等.北川河流域退耕还林不同配置模式对土壤抗冲性的影响[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(03):77.
　JIA Jun-shu,HU Wen-zhong,LI Wen-zhong,et al.Influence of Different Species Arrangement Models on Soil Anti-scourability in Converting Cropland to Forest in Beichuanhe Watershed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(02):77.
[10]罗国占,赵廷宁,王贤,等.吴旗县覆沙黄土区退耕还林结合封禁的植被恢复效果研究[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(03):80.
　LUO Guo-zhan,ZHAO Ting-ning,WANG Xian,et al.Study on Revegetation Effect of Returning Farmland to Forestry Combining Closure in Sand Covered and Loess Region in Wuqi County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,13(02):80.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2012-08-08;改回日期:2012-10-10。
基金项目:2012年忻州师范学院专题研究项目（ZT201214）；2012年山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目（20122212）
作者简介:赵鹏宇(1981-),男,山西保德人,硕士研究生,助教,主要从事植物土壤与水土保持方面的研究。E-mail:497154516@qq.com
通讯作者:徐学选(1966-),男,陕西大荔人,博导,研究员,主要从事水土保持方面的研究。E-mail:xuxuexuan@nwsuaf.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01