LIU Yao-bin.Analysis on Temporal-spatial Effects of Resources Consumption to Urbanization in Jiangxi Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(04):168-172.
江西省城市化进程中的资源消耗效应时空分析
- Title:
- Analysis on Temporal-spatial Effects of Resources Consumption to Urbanization in Jiangxi Province
- 关键词:
- 城市化; 资源消耗; Granger因果检验; 回归分析
- 分类号:
- F299.27;X24
- 摘要:
- 对江西省城市化进程中资源消耗特征分析的基础上,采用计量经济学的方法,对其消耗效应进行了时空分析.研究显示,在随着城市化进程地推进,人均资源消耗具有不同的时序变化态势;而空间分布变化基本是北高南低,有着沿铁路聚集分布的趋势;格兰杰因果分析发现,江西省城市化水平变化是人均能源消费、人均用水量和人均耕地面积变化的格兰杰因果原因,而三者不是城市化水平变化的格兰杰因果原因;进一步的时空回归分析表明,随着城市化进程的持续推进,城市化水平与人均资源消耗具有较强的时序作用规律,基本上都呈现出开口向上的二次曲线形状,而其空间联动关系并非具有一致性.
- Abstract:
- The temporal-spatial effects of resources consumption are analyzed in Jiangxi province by means of econometrics method.The results show:firstly,there are different temporal characteristics for different items of resources consumption corresponding to the urbanization process,but its per capita consumption amounts in the northern region are higher than those of the southern,and there is the trend of gathering distribution along the rail.Secondly,there exist complex relationships between urbanization process and per capita resources consumption with Granger causality method employed,which urbanization is Granger causality of per capita energy consumption,per capita water consumption and per capita cultivated area,but they are not Granger causality of urbanization.Thirdly,there is a significant temporal rule for urbanization process and per capita consumption of resources using regressive analysis model,which there is a two times function curve with the opening upward quadratic curve shape,and its spatial interaction is not the consistency.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2007-3-24;改回日期:2007-6-29。
基金项目:中国博士后基金项目(20060400249);江西省社科规划项目(06JL13)
作者简介:刘耀彬(1970- ),湖北麻城人,博士(后),副教授,主要从事城市经济与城市管理方面研究工作.