水资源承载力分析预测——以莒南县为例

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 13 期数: 2006年05期页码: 114-116 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01

Title:: Analysis and Prediction on Water Resource Carrying Capacity——A Case of Jünan County

作者:: 王智勇¹, 郑昭佩¹, 韩美¹, 袁洪刚²; 1. 山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院, 济南, 250014;
2. 山东日照茶叶所, 日照, 276800

Author(s):: WANG Zhi-yong¹, ZHENG Zhao-pei¹, HAN Mei¹, YUAN Hong-gang²; 1. College of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, 250014, China;
2. Institute of Tea Science of Rizhao City, Rizhao, 276800, China

摘要:: 在明确水资源承载力内涵基础上,分析了山东省莒南县水资源承载力,认为人口总数,工业产值、农业产值是莒南县水资源承载力变化最主要的驱动因素.通过对水资源承载力变化驱动因子的线性回归分析,预测了莒南县2010年和2015年水资源的供需状况,预测结果表明:水资源不能满足莒南县社会经济发展的需求.为解决莒南县水资源紧缺的矛盾,并保证莒南县未来水资源的供需平衡,应当提高科学用水和科学管理水平,实行“节流”为主,“开源”为辅相结合的政策.

Abstract:: The connotation of the water resource carrying capacity is explained and the water resource carrying capacity in Jünan county is analyzed.The total population,the industry production value and agriculture production value are the main driving forces leading to the changing of the water resource carrying capacity.Using regressive equation based on the data of the driving forces,the prediction of the water resource carrying capacity in Jünan county is done for 2010 and 2015.The result of prediction makes it clear that the water resource will not meet the need of enlarging population and developing economy.To get over the difficulty,several suggestions is put forward as following:improving the technology on using water resource,economizing water all-around and exploiting new water resource seientifically.

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更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01