[1]文军,罗献宝,骆东奇,等.千岛湖水体生态风险胁迫因子氮、磷预测模型应用研究[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(06):65-67.
　WEN Jun,LUO Xian-bao,LUO Dong-qi,et al.Application Research of Ecological Risk Stressors: Nitrogen and Phosphorus Forecasting Models of Water Body of Qiandao Lake[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(06):65-67.
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千岛湖水体生态风险胁迫因子氮、磷预测模型应用研究

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 12 期数: 2005年06期 页码: 65-67 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
Application Research of Ecological Risk Stressors: Nitrogen and Phosphorus Forecasting Models of Water Body of Qiandao Lake
作者:
文军1, 罗献宝1, 骆东奇1, 方志发2
1. 广西大学, 南宁, 530005;
2. 淳安县环境保护监测站, 浙江, 淳安, 311700
Author(s):
WEN Jun1, LUO Xian-bao1, LUO Dong-qi1, FANG Zhi-fa2
1. Guangxi University, Guangxi, Nanning, 530005, China;
2. Environmental Protection Department of Chunan County, Chunan, Zhejiang, 311700, China
关键词:
千岛湖; 水质; 氮预测模型; 磷预测模型
Keywords:
Qiandao Lake; water quality; nitrogen forecasting model; phosphorus forecasting model
分类号:
X524
摘要:
引起水体富营养化的限制因子主要是氮和磷.现有的研究表明,千岛湖水体中TN浓度较高,已达到导致水体富营养化的危险程度,磷是千岛湖水体富营养化的限制因子.因此模拟和预测千岛湖水体中氮、磷的变化对指导千岛湖生态风险管理具有重要意义.建立了千岛湖氮、磷预测模型,通过对千岛湖水体总氮和总磷预测模型的预测结果进行检验,结果表明所构建模型应用于近期千岛湖总氮和总磷的模拟有较好的预测精度.因此,通过对千岛湖水质参数构建数学模型,模拟其水质变化过程,为科学评估千岛湖水质下降风险提供参考依据在理论上是完全可行的.根据氮、磷预测模型的运算结果显示,千岛湖全湖总氮与总磷的平均比值将持续维持在35～40:1范围内,进一步肯定了总磷仍然是千岛湖总体水质下降及富营养化的限制因子,其对于流域内总磷输入的防控管理是整个水体系统功能维持稳定状态的关键.
Abstract:
N and P are the restricting factors that lead to water eutrophication.From the current research results,the concentration of TN in the Qiandao Lake water body has reached the dangerous extent that lead to eutrophication,and phosphorus is the restricting factor of eutrophication.Simulating and forecasting the changing of N and P are very important,which can guide the ecological risk management of Qiandao Lake.The authors employed the forecasting models of N and P constructed to test the water body of Qiandao Lake,it is found that these models have a good predictive precision.This indicates that it is absolutely theoretically feasible to scientifically assess the risk of water quality deterioration in Qiandao Lake through constructing mathematical models and simulating the process of water quality change.According to the forecasting models,the average ratio of total N to total P in Qiandao Lake will maintain in the range of 35～40:1,which further confirms that total P is still the restricted factor of the overall water quality deterioration and eutrophication in the Qiandao Lake.Thus,preventing and controlling the input of total P is the key to maintaining stable status of the whole water body system.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2004-11-25。
基金项目:杭州市旅游委员会专项资金JY03080项资助
作者简介:文军(1970- ),男,生态学博士,副教授,主要研究:环境生态和生态旅游.

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01