WAN Quan,FAN Shu-long,LIN Yan.Study on Multi-models Comprehensive Forecasting of Landslides[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(05):181-185.
滑坡的多模型综合预测预报研究
- Title:
- Study on Multi-models Comprehensive Forecasting of Landslides
- 关键词:
- 滑坡; 定量预报; 预报模型; 多模型综合预测预报; 多模型综合预测预报模块
- Keywords:
- landslide; quantitative prediction; forecasting model; multi-models comprehensive forecasting; multi-models comprehensive prediction module
- 分类号:
- P642.22
- 摘要:
- 由于滑坡的复杂性以及预报模型和方法的局限性，简单地利用单一的滑坡预测预报模型准确地预报滑坡的滑动时间还很困难。为了提高滑坡预报的准确度，提出了在滑坡原型调研和机制研究的基础上，以滑坡的监测资料为依据，通过监测点的选取、监测信息的处理和变形阶段的判别，选择多个与所预报滑坡相适宜的预测预报模型对滑坡的滑动时间进行预测预报，并对多个模型的预报结果进行综合评判得出预报结果，最后以黄龙西村滑坡实例进行了应用。
- Abstract:
- Because of complexity of landslides and limitation of forecasting models and methods,it is difficult to forecast sliding time of landslides.In order to improve precision of forecasting landslide,a multi-models comprehensive forecasting method is presented,which is based on investigating landslides on the spot and researching their mechanism,according to monitoring data,multi-models agreeing with the forecasted landslide were chosen to forecast sliding time of landslides after selecting monitoring point,processing monitoring information and judging deformation stage,the forecasting result was concluded by comprehensively judging on the forecasting results of multi-models,at last Huanglongxicun landslide is applied as an example.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2004-11-16
作者简介:万全（1952- ），男，高级工程师，主要从事公路桥梁与隧道及地质灾害方面的研究工作.