[1]钟绍卓,孙浩源.不同情景下祁连山国家级自然保护区生态系统服务时空变化及权衡与协同关系[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(05):358-369.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.05.032.]
　ZHONG Shaozhuo,SUN Haoyuan.Assessment on Spatiotemporal Variation and Synergies/Tradeoffs Relationships of Ecosystem Services in Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve Under Different Scenarios[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(05):358-369.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.05.032.]
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不同情景下祁连山国家级自然保护区生态系统服务时空变化及权衡与协同关系

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 30 期数: 2023年05期 页码: 358-369 栏目: 出版日期: 2023-08-10
Title:
Assessment on Spatiotemporal Variation and Synergies/Tradeoffs Relationships of Ecosystem Services in Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve Under Different Scenarios
文章编号:
1005-3409(2023)05-0358-12
作者:
钟绍卓1, 孙浩源2
(1.西南财经大学 经济学院, 成都611130; 2.西南财经大学 中国西部经济研究院, 成都611130)
Author(s):
ZHONG Shaozhuo1, SUN Haoyuan2
(1.School of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, China; 2.West Institute for Economic Research, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 611130, China)
关键词:
祁连山国家级自然保护区;  生态系统服务;  权衡与协同;  情景预测
Keywords:
Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve;  ecosystem services;  synergies and tradeoffs;  scenario simulation
分类号:
X826
DOI:
10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.05.032.
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
[目的]分析祁连山国家级自然保护区生态系统服务的时空演变规律,揭示不同生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系,为祁连山国家级自然保护区生态系统的可持续发展提供科学支撑。[方法]基于历史数据和Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型的情景预测,运用InVEST模型对祁连山国家级自然保护区2000年、2020年和2050年的产水量、碳储量、生境质量、土壤保持量这4种生态系统服务进行定量评估,并借助Spearman相关分析法和双变量空间自相关分析法探索不同生态系统服务在时间和空间上的权衡与协同关系。[结果]草地是保护区最主要的地类。2000—2020年,草地增多的同时,伴随耕地和建设用地的增加及林地的减少。2050年自然趋势情景延续了此趋势,而生态保护情景扭转了此趋势。2000—2020年,保护区的碳储量和生境质量增加,产水量和土壤保持量明显下降,大体呈现南高北低的空间分布态势。2050年模拟的生态系统服务相较2020年均增加,生态保护情景增幅更大。保护区内4种生态系统服务之间总体呈协同关系,其局部的权衡与协同关系则具有显著的空间异质性。碳储量与产水服务间的协同关系最强。[结论]祁连山国家级自然保护区不同生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系具有明显的时空异质性,在未来的发展和保护中应注意分区优化管理。
Abstract:
[Objective] The aims of this study are to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecosystem services in Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve, and explore synergies and tradeoffs between ecosystem services, thus providing scientific support for future management. [Methods] Based on historical data and scenarios of Logistic-CA-Markov approach, InVEST model was employed to evaluate four ecosystem services, i. e. water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality and soil conservation, in Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve from 2000 to 2050, and then synergies and tradeoffs between ecosystem services were analyzed by spearman correlation analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis. [Results] Grassland was the main land type in the study area. From 2000 to 2020, the areas of grassland, cultivated land and construction land increased, while the area of forest land decreased. In 2050, the natural-based scenario will continue such a trend, but the ecological protection scenario will show an inverse change. From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage and habitat quality increased, while water yield and soil conservation decreased obviously. The high values of four ecosystem services almost appeared in the south and the low ones in the north. Compared with 2020, the values of all ecosystem services will increase in 2050, especially in the ecological protection scenario. Ecosystem services were generally synergetic, while their local trade-offs/synergies relationship expressed significant spatial heterogeneity. Particularly, the strongest synergistic effects occurred between carbon storage and water yield. [Conclusion] Meaningful spatial-temporal heterogeneity between ecosystem services in Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve is discovered, which will need partition management in the future.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2022-06-21 修回日期:2022-08-08
资助项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72004184); 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(JBK2304025); 四川省社科规划项目青年项目(SC21C071)
第一作者:钟绍卓(1989—),女,四川简阳人,博士,讲师,主要从事环境管理、生态补偿和生态系统服务研究。E-mail:zhongsz@swufe.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 2023-08-10