[1]侯凯,林涛,钱会,等.武功地区气候变化特征及趋势预测[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(04):252-258.
　HOU Kai,LIN Tao,QIAN Hui,et al.Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Climate in Wugong Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(04):252-258.
点击复制

武功地区气候变化特征及趋势预测

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 24 期数: 2017年04期 页码: 252-258 栏目: 出版日期: 2017-08-28
Title:
Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Climate in Wugong Area
作者:
侯凯1,2, 林涛1,2, 钱会1,2, 徐盼盼1,2, 杨咪1,2
1. 长安大学 环境科学与工程学院, 西安 710054;
2. 旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室, 西安 710054
Author(s):
HOU Kai1,2, LIN Tao1,2, QIAN Hui1,2, XU Panpan1,2, YANG Mi1,2
1. College of Environmental science and Engineering, Chang’an University College, Xi’an 710054, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecology in Arid Areas, Ministry of Education, Xi’an 710054, China
关键词:
气温; 降水量; M-K检验; R/S分析; 洛伦兹曲线; 基尼系数
Keywords:
temperature; precipitation; M-K test; R/S method; Lorenz curve; Gini coefficient
分类号:
P467
摘要:
基于1955—2012年武功地区气温与降水量逐日观测数据，运用累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验与洛伦兹曲线理论分析了该地区年均气温和降水量地变化趋势及年内均匀性评价，并借助R/S分析对该地区气候发展趋势进行预测。结果表明：武功地区58年来年均气温呈明显上升趋势，而年降水量呈下降趋势；气温在1990年发生气温升高突变，1955—1984年为丰水期，1985—2002年转入枯水期，2002年之后逐渐转为丰水期；年内降水分布不均匀性逐渐增强，降水量较小的月份所占比例较大，且基尼系数与洛伦兹不对称系数的年代际变幅不大，基本趋于不变；目前气温升高趋势将不再持续，未来可能降低，并且年降水量减少趋势也不再持续，未来可能开始增加。
Abstract:
Based on the daily observation data of temperature and precipitation from 1955 to 2012 in Wugong area, the cumulative departure and Mann-Kendall test and Lorenz curve method were applied to analyze the temperature and annual precipitation variation characteristics and years uniformity evaluation, the R/S method was applied to forecast the development trend of climate in this region. The results showed that the temperature had an increasing trend over the past 58 years in Wugong area, and the annual precipitation decreased; the temperature had a rising mutation in 1990, the region was wet in 1955—1984, and it turned to dry season in 1985—2002, and it gradually turned into the wet season after 2002; the uneven of annual precipitation distribution was gradually strengthen, the months of less precipitation had a larger percentage, and the decadal amplitude of the Gini coefficient and Lorenz asymmetry coefficient was little, which was essentially unchanged; the rising tendency of temperature will no longer last, it may reduce in the future, the decreasing tendency of precipitation will also no longer last, it may increase in the future.

参考文献/References:

[1] IPCC. Climate change2007:the physical science basis. Summary for policymakers[R]. New York, USA:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[2] IPCC. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptions[R]. New York, USA:Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 2012.
[3] Kosaka Y, Xie S P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature, 2013,501(7467):403-407.
[4] 段安民,肖志祥,吴国雄.1979-2014年全球变暖背景下青藏高原气候变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(5):374-381.
[5] 张存杰,高学杰,赵红岩.全球气候变暖对西北地区秋季降水的影响[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):57-164.
[6] 张可慧.全球气候变暖对京津冀地区极端天气气候事件的影响及防灾减灾对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(10):122-125.
[7] 翟盘茂,邹旭凯.1951-2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(1):16-18.
[8] 何艳芬,张喨.陕西省1980-2006年气候变化时空特征研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2011,25(11):59-63.
[9] 李平华,胡小晖,程燕.陕西关中地区水文气候状况对全球变暖的响应问题探讨[J].灾害学,2002,17(2):37-41.
[10] 白爱娟,方建刚.近50a陕西省冬季气候变化特征及其与北半球大气环流的关系[J].气象科学,2003,23(2):176-184.
[11] 王文艳,张丽萍,吴东平,等.近19年干旱半干旱过渡区气温降雨变化特征分析[J].环境科学与技术,2012(S1):57-61.
[12] 李小丽,敖天其,黎小东.古蔺县近50年来降水序列趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(6):140-144.
[13] 冯新灵,冯自立,罗隆诚,等.青藏高原冷暖气候变化趋势的R/S分析及Hurst指数试验研究[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(2):175-181.
[14] 史婉丽,杨勤科,李小芳,等.基于洛伦茨曲线的陕北黄土高原降雨分布不均匀性分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(4):172-177.
[15] 徐万玲,朱卫红,张健,等.基于洛伦兹曲线的图们江干流区间径流分布不均匀性分析[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(1):128-132.
[16] 张晶,封志明,杨艳昭.洛伦兹曲线及其在中国耕地,粮食,人口时空演变格局研究中的应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(11):63-67.
[17] 边静,何多兴,田永中,等.基于信息熵与空间洛伦兹曲线的土地利用空间结构分析:以重庆市合川区为例[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(5):201-204.
[18] Marull J, Pino J, Tello E, et al. Social metabolism, landscape change and land-use planning in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region[J]. Land Use Policy, 2010,27(2):497-510.
[19] Tang J, Wang X. Analysis of the land use structure changes based on Lorenz curves[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2009,151(1/4):175-180.
[20] Xu L, Zhou H, Du L, et al. Precipitation trends and variability from 1950 to 2000 in arid lands of Central Asia[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2015,7(4):514-526.

相似文献/References:

[1]张月丛,张才玉,成福伟,等.承德市近58年气温和降水序列多时间尺度分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(05):70.
　ZHANG Yue-cong,ZHANG Cai-yu,CHENG Fu-wei,et al.Multi-Time Scale Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Recent 58 Years in Chengde City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(04):70.
[2]封毅,武博强,崔灵周.基于BP神经网络的台风降雨量预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(03):289.
　FENG Yi,WU Bo-qiang,CUI Ling-zhou.Study on Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall Based on BP Neural Network[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(04):289.
[3]赵志鹏,曹立国,魏锦烨,等.近52年黑龙江省不同级别降水特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):48.
　ZHAO Zhi-peng,CAO Li-guo,WEI Jin-ye,et al.Research on the Characteristic of Different Level Precipitation in Heilongjiang Province in Recent 52 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(04):48.
[4]穆兴民,陈国良,徐学选.黄土高原降水量与地理因素关系分析[J].水土保持研究,1992,(02):80.
　Mu Xingmin,Chen Guoliang,Xu Xuexuan.ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND GEOGRAPICAL FACTORS IN LOESS PLATEAU[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1992,(04):80.
[5]赵鸿雁,吴钦孝,韩冰,等.影响水土流失主要因子间相互关系研究[J].水土保持研究,1995,2(01):103.
　Zhao Hongyan,Wu Qinxiao,Han Bing,et al.Study on the Relation among Factors Affecting of Soil and Water Loss[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1995,2(04):103.
[6]张庆琼,张云娥,刘瑞雪,等.降水量对梯田作物产量的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,1998,5(03):122.
　Zhang Qingqiong,Zhang Yune,Liu Ruixue,et al.Effects of Precipitation on the Crop Yield in Terrace Field[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,1998,5(04):122.
[7]黄炎和,杨学震,沈林洪,等.侵蚀劣地果园套种绿肥对地温和气温的影响[J].水土保持研究,2000,7(03):222.
　HUANG Yan-he,YANG Xue-zhen,SHEN Lin-hong,et al.Effects of Interplanting Green Manures with the Orchard of the Eroded Inferior Lands on the Air and Ground Temperature[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2000,7(04):222.
[8]潘渝,郭谨,李毅,等.地膜覆盖条件下的土壤增温特性[J].水土保持研究,2002,9(02):130.
　PAN yu,GUO Jin,LI Yi,et al.Characteristics of Increasing Temperature in Soils With Plastic Mulching[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2002,9(04):130.
[9]杨会蒲.黄土丘陵区油松人工林水分生态效益研究[J].水土保持研究,2002,9(04):74.
　YANG Hui-pu.Study on Water Ecological Benefits of Artificial Chinese Pine Stands in Loess Hilly Region[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2002,9(04):74.
[10]南峰,李有利,史兴民.新疆玛纳斯河水量波动与气候变化之间的关系[J].水土保持研究,2003,10(03):59.
　NAN Feng,LI You-li,SHI Xing-min.Relationship of the Fluctuations of Stream Discharge of the Manas River and Climatic Changes[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2003,10(04):59.
[11]木沙·如孜,白云岗,雷晓云,等.塔里木河流域气候及径流变化特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):122.
　MUSHA·Ruzi,BAI Yun-gang,LEI Xiao-yun,et al.Study on the Change of Climate and Runoff in the Tarim River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(04):122.
[12]热孜宛古丽·麦麦提依明,杨建军,刘永强,等.新疆近54年气温和降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(02):128.
　Reziwanguli·Maimaitiyiming,YANG Jianjun,LIU Yongqiang,et al.Characteristics of Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Xinjiang in Recent 54 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(04):128.
[13]史佳良,王秀茹,李淑芳,等.近50年来河南省气温和降水时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(03):151.
　SHI Jialiang,WANG Xiuru,LI Shufang,et al.Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature and Precipitation in He’nan Province in Recent 50 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(04):151.

备注/Memo

收稿日期:2016-12-12;改回日期:2017-01-09。
基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目“渭河中下游干旱预警与应急水源配置”（201301084）
通讯作者:钱会(1963-),男,陕西西安人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:主要从事水文地质方向的研究。E-mail:qianhui@chd.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01