[1]邢容容,马安青,张小伟,等.基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的青岛市土地利用变化动态模拟[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(06):111-114.
　XING Rong-rong,MA An-qing,ZHANG Xiao-wei,et al.Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change in Qingdao City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2014,21(06):111-114.
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基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的青岛市土地利用变化动态模拟

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 21 期数: 2014年06期 页码: 111-114 栏目: 出版日期: 2014-12-28
Title:
Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change in Qingdao City Based on Logistic-CA-Markov Model
作者:
邢容容1,2, 马安青1, 张小伟1, 于欣鑫1, 马冰然1
1. 中国海洋大学 环境科学与工程学院, 山东 青岛 266100;
2. 河北省地矿局秦皇岛矿产水文工程地质大队, 河北 秦皇岛 066001
Author(s):
XING Rong-rong1,2, MA An-qing1, ZHANG Xiao-wei1, YU Xin-xin1, MA Bing-ran1
1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong 266100, China;
2. Qinhuangdao Mineral Resources and Hydrogeological Brigade, Hebei Geological Prospecting Bureau, Qinhuangdao, Hebei 066001, China
关键词:
土地利用变化; 动态模拟; Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型; 青岛市
Keywords:
land use change; dynamic simulation; Logistic-CA-Markov model; Qingdao City
分类号:
F301.2;P901
摘要:
研究经济快速发展的沿海地区土地利用结构的变化并预测其未来发展趋势，可以为区域土地合理利用与配置提供参考。以青岛市为研究区，采用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型，基于2000年、2011年土地利用解译数据，结合DEM、人口、GDP、距离等因素模拟出2011年土地利用数据，与2011年解译数据对比，得到模拟精度为94.27%，说明模型拟合精度较高，接着对2022年、2033年土地利用空间格局进行了预测。Logistic-CA-Markov模型模拟的2011—2022年土地利用类型将保持2000—2011年的变化趋势，表现在耕地、水域、未利用土地面积减少，林地、草地以及城乡、工矿、居民用地面积增加，2022—2033年城乡、工矿、居民用地面积仍然增加，但是增加速率明显小于2011—2022年。研究结果表明，Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型具有较高的模拟精度，可以应用于模拟多类土地利用类型之间的演变。该研究可为青岛市的土地规划、管理和决策提供依据，同时对保护和改善生态环境具有现实的指导意义。
Abstract:
The study of land use change of rapid coastal areas and prediction of future trends can provide a reference for rational utilization and allocation of land resources. Qingdao City was taken as the study area. The land use scenario in 2011 was simulated and forecasted on the basis of land use type interpretation of 2000 and 2011, DEM, population, GDP and range of distance data by means of Logistic-CA-Markov model. Results showed that the simulation accuracy by this model was 94.27%. So the fitting accuracy will be higher by using this model. Then distribution of land use spatial patterns in 2022 and 2033 were forecasted. The simulated result by Logistic-CA-Markov model indicated that each land use type from 2011 to 2022 would keep the similar change trend as that from 2000 to 2011. Farm land, water and unused land area would decrease, while the areas of forest, grassland, rural, urban, mining and residential would increase. The rural, urban, mining and residential areas will increase from 2022 to 2033 slowly compared to that from 2011 to 2022. It is concluded that the proposed model in the paper had high accuracy in terms of simulating complex land use changes and could be used to simulate the multiple land use evolution. And this study provides not only basis of land planning, management and decision, but also realistic significance to protect and improve the ecological environment.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2013-10-31;改回日期:2013-12-08。
基金项目:我国近海海洋综合调查与评价专项课题“山东江苏海岛海岸带卫星遥感调查与研究”（908-01-WY02）
作者简介:邢容容(1989-),女,山东省聊城市人,硕士研究生,研究方向为GIS与RS在环境工程中的应用。E-mail:rrxing01@163.com
通讯作者:马安青(1970-),男,安徽太和县人,博士,主要从事地理信息系统与遥感的研究与应用。E-mail:maanqing538@sina.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01