Zhou Min,Sun Dongyuan,Zhao Yufeng,et al.Change Trend and Prediction of Water Surface Evaporation in Shule River Basin from 1980 to 2020[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(04):50-58.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.016]
1980—2020年疏勒河流域水面蒸发量变化趋势及预测
- Title:
- Change Trend and Prediction of Water Surface Evaporation in Shule River Basin from 1980 to 2020
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)04-0050-09
- 分类号:
- P332.2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]揭示疏勒河流域水面蒸发量的变化特征及未来演变趋势,以期更深入了解流域内水资源的动态变化,为该地区规划和管理水资源的利用提供决策支撑。[方法]基于1980—2020年昌马堡、双塔堡水库、党城湾、党河水库4个水文站逐月、逐年水面蒸发资料,采用线性倾向率、滑动t检验、R/S分析法、BP神经网络等分析方法对流域近40年水面蒸发变化特征进行了研究,并预测了未来水面蒸发量及其变化趋势。[结果](1)1980—2020年疏勒河流域各站点水面蒸发量年际变化整体均呈减少趋势,各站倾向率排序为:双塔堡水库站(-187.10 mm/10 a)>党河水库站(-178.20 mm/10 a)>昌马堡站(-33.00 mm/10 a)>党城湾站(-30.00 mm/10 a),其中双塔堡水库和党河水库站减少趋势十分显著。(2)昌马堡、双塔堡水库和党河水库站四季水面蒸发量均表现为减少趋势,党城湾站春季呈不显著增加趋势,其他季节呈下降趋势。(3)昌马堡、党城湾、双塔堡水库和党河水库4站突变年份分别为2004年、2015年、2007年和2007年。(4)流域水面蒸发量不均匀系数和集中度整体表现为减少趋势。(5)预测2021—2026年水面蒸发量将继续呈下降变化趋势。[结论]整体上,疏勒河流域全年和四季水面蒸发量呈减少变化趋势,且未来也表现为下降演变趋势。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the variation characteristics and future evolution trend of water surface evaporation in the Shule River Basin, to better understand the dynamic changes of water resources in the basin, so as to provide decision support for the planning and management of water resources utilization in the region. [Methods]Based on the monthly and yearly water surface evaporation data of four hydrology stations in Changmabao, Shuangtabao Reservoir, Dangcheng Bay and Danghe Reservoir from 1980 to 2020, linear dip rate, sliding t test, R/S analysis, BP neural network and other analysis methods were used to examine the characteristics of surface evaporation changes in the past 40 years, and the future evaporation and its change trend were predicted. [Results](1)The annual variation of water surface evaporation at all stations in the Shule River Basin showed a decreasing trend during 1980—2020, and the trend rate of each station was ranked as:Shuangtabao Reservoir Station(-187.10 mm/decade)>Danghe Reservoir Station(-178.20 mm/decade)>Changmabao Station(-33.00 mm/decade)>Dangchengwan Station(-30.00 mm/decade), among which the decrease trend of Shuangtabao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir Station was very significant.(2)The water surface evaporation of Changmabao, Shuangtapao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir Stations showed a decreasing trend in all seasons, while that of Dangchengwan Station showed an insignificant increasing trend in spring and a decreasing trend in other seasons.(3)The mutation years of Changmabao, Dangcheng Bay, Shuangtabao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir were 2004, 2015, 2007 and 2007, respectively.(4)The uneven coefficient and concentration of evaporation on the surface of the basin showed a decreasing trend as a whole.(5)It is predicted that the evaporation of water surface will continue to show a downward trend in 2021—2026. [Conclusion]On the whole, the annual and seasonal water surface evaporation in the Shule River Basin shows a decreasing trend, and it also shows a decreasing trend in the future.
参考文献/References:
[1]李秀,郎琪,雷坤,等.1958—2018年永定河流域蒸发皿蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子分析[J].气候与环境研究,2021,26(3):323-332.
Li X, Lang Q, Lei K, et al. Variation characteristics of pan evaporation and the influencing factors in the Yongding River Basin during 1958—2018[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2021,26(3):323-332.
[2]姜彤,孙赫敏,李修仓,等.气候变化对水文循环的影响[J].气象,2020,46(3):289-300.
Jiang T, Sun H M, Li X C, et al. Impact of climate change on water cycle[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2020,46(3):289-300.
[3]Li Z, Chen Y N, Shen Y J, et al. Analysis of changing pan evaporation in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Water Resources Research, 2013,49(4):2205-2212.
[4]叶林媛,鲁汉,秦淑静,等.长江流域1960—2019年蒸发皿蒸发和实际蒸散发演变规律[J].水科学进展,2022,33(5):718-729.
Ye L Y, Lu H, Qin S J, et al. Changes in pan evaporation and actual evapotranspiration of the Yangtze River Basin during 1960—2019[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2022,33(5):718-729.
[5]张耀宗,张勃,张多勇,等.1960—2018年黄土高原地区蒸发皿蒸发时空变化特征及影响因素[J].干旱区研究,2022,39(1):1-9.
Zhang Y Z, Zhang B, Zhang D Y, et al. Spatio temporal patterns of pan evaporation from 1960 to 2018 over the Loess Plateau:Changing properties and possible causess[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022,39(1):1-9.
[6]赵梓琨,孙文义,穆兴民,等.黄河流域水文站和气象站蒸发皿蒸发量时空变化及其差异[J].人民黄河,2023,45(6):24-31.
Zhao Z K, Sun W Y, Mu X M, et al. Temporal and spatial variation and difference of pan evaporation between hydrological station and meteorological station in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Yellow River, 2023,45(6):24-31.
[7]Guan X X, Liu C S, Zhang J Y, et al. On the attribution of changing water surface evaporation across China[J]. Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies, 2022,40:100991.
[8]刘昌明.黄河流域水循环演变若干问题的研究[J].水科学进展,2004,15(5):608-614.
Liu C M. Study of some problems in water cycle changes of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2004,15(5):608-614.
[9]陈金红,崔东文.基于小波包分解的GJO-XGBoost水面蒸发量预测[J].三峡大学学报:自然科学版,2023,45(3):1-7.
Chen J H, Cui D W. GJO-XGBoost prediction of water surface evaporation based on wavelet packet decomposition[J]. Journal of China Three Gorges University:Natural Sciences, 2023,45(3):1-7.
[10]闫桂霞,李登华.1961—2006年我国水面蒸发时空变化特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(10):1-5.
Yan G X, Li D H. Research of spatiotemporal variation of water surfer evaporation in China during 1961—2006[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2015,33(10):1-5.
[11]肖曼珍,朱春苗,宋小燕,等.我国南北过渡带水面蒸发的时空变化及趋势预测[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2021,19(2):263-272.
Xiao M Z, Zhu C M, Song X Y, et al. Spatiotemporal changes and trend prediction of water surface evaporation in the north-south transitional zone of China[J]. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2021,19(2):263-272.
[12]李学辉,谷桂华,余守龙,等.云南省水面蒸发量变化趋势及其影响因素分析[J].人民长江,2020,51(S2):63-67.
Li X H, Gu G H, Yu S L, et al. Analysis on the changing trend of water surface evaporation and its influencing factors in Yunnan Province[J]. Yangtze River, 2020,51(S2):63-67.
[13]王玥,王怡宁,雷晓辉,等.淮北平原近57年多尺度水面蒸发悖论差异性研究[J].节水灌溉,2022,47(11):59-65.
Wang Y, Wang Y N, Lei X H, et al. Study on the difference of multi-scale water surface evaporation paradox in Huaibei Plain in recent 57 years[J]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2022,47(11):59-65.
[14]秦鹏飞,赵天保,曹建荣,等.基于均一化数据的1960—2021年中国蒸发皿蒸发量时空变化特征[J].气象学报,2023,81(3):478-491.
Qin P F, Zhao T B, Cao J R, et al. Characteristics of tempo-spatial variations of pan evaporation in China during 1960—2021 based on a homogenized dataset[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2023,81(3):478-491.
[15]孙栋元,齐广平,鄢继选,等.疏勒河干流降水变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2020,37(2):291-303.
Sun D Y, Qi G P, Yan J X, et al. Research on variation characteristics of precipitation in the mainstream of Shule River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020,37(2):291-303.
[16]热孜宛古丽·麦麦提依明,杨建军,刘巍.艾比湖流域1957—2013年潜在蒸散、气温、降水变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(1):69-76.
Maimaitiyiming R, Yang J J, Liu W. Changing characteristics of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature and precipitation in Ebinur Lake Basin from 1957 to 2013[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2016,38(1):69-76.
[17]师银芳,熊劲锟,邢捷.1971—2015年鄂西山地极端气温变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2022,33(6):10-17.
Shi Y F, Xiong J K, Xing J. Characteristics of extreme temperature changes in Western Hubei Mountains from 1971 to 2015[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2022,33(6):10-17.
[18]丁爱中,赵银军,郝弟,等.永定河流域径流变化特征及影响因素分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(1):17-22.
Ding A Z, Zhao Y J, Hao D, et al. Analysis of variation characteristics of runoff and their influencing factors in the Yongding River Basin[J]. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2013,11(1):17-22.
[19]曹振宇.穆棱河流域上游径流年内分配特性[J].水电能源科学,2019,37(1):21-25.
Cao Z Y. Variation regularity of intra-annual runoff distribution in the upstream of the Muling River Basin[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2019,37(1):21-25.
[20]马于航,索梅芹.基于GA-BP神经网络与正态区间估计的需水预测:以邯郸市为例[J].中国农村水利水电,2022,64(3):19-24.
Ma Y H, Suo M Q. Research on water demand forecasting in Handan City based on GA-BP neural network and normal interval estimation[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2022,64(3):19-24.
[21]任国玉,郭军.中国水面蒸发量的变化[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(1):31-44.
Ren G Y, Guo J. Change in pan evaporation and the influential factors over China:1956—2000[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2006,21(1):31-44.
[22]刘红国.疏勒河流域水文气象要素趋势分析[J].地下水,2020,42(3):184-185.
Liu H G. Trend analysis of hydrometeorological elements in Shule River Basin[J]. Ground Water, 2020,42(3):184-185.
[23]丛振涛,倪广恒,杨大文,等.“蒸发悖论” 在中国的规律分析[J].水科学进展,2008,19(2):147-152.
Cong Z T, Ni G H, Yang D W, et al. Evaporation paradox in China[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2008,19(2):147-152.
[24]陈娜娜,任欣琪.疏勒河流域气温、降水、径流演变特征及径流影响因素分析[C]//河海大学,生态环境部黄河流域生态环境监督管理局,华北水利水电大学,中国自然资源学会水资源专业委员会,2020(第八届)中国水生态大会论文集.
Chen N N, Ren X Q. Variation Characteristics of Temperature, Precipitation, Runoff and Influencing Factors of Runoff in Shule River Basin[C]//Hohai University, Yellow River Basin Ecological Environment Supervision and Administration Bureau, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, North China University of Water Resources and Hydropower, Water Resources Committee of Chinese Society of Natural Resources. Proceedings of the 8th China Water Ecology Conference 2020.
[25]张昌顺.疏勒河流域山前区降水量变化趋势分析[J].地下水,2015,37(5):158-159,165.
Zhang C S. Analysis of precipitation change trend in the piedmont area of Shule River Basin[J]. Ground Water, 2015,37(5):158-159,165.
[26]颜明慧,张文春,刘刚.疏勒河干流降水时空分布研究[J].地下水,2022,44(5):197-200.
Yang M H, Zhang W C, Liu G. Spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in Shule River main stream[J]. Ground Water, 2022,44(5):197-200.
[27]贾玲,张百祖,牛最荣,等.疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析[J].干旱区研究,2022,39(5):1588-1597.
Jia L, Zhang B Z, Niu Z R, et al. Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022,39(5):1588-1597.
相似文献/References:
[1]叶 强,潘若莼,赵 垚.土地用途管制下长株潭生态绿心地区乡村聚落时空演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(02):285.
YE Qiang,PAN Ruochun,ZHAO Yao.Analysis on the Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Rural Settlements in Changzhutan Ecological ‘Green Heart' Under Land-Use Regulation[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):285.
[2]李媛洁,叶长盛,黄小兰.基于CLUE-S模型的南昌市“三生”空间时空演变及情景模拟研究[J].水土保持研究,2021,28(05):325.
LI Yuanjie,YE Changsheng,HUANG Xiaolan.Temporal-Spatial Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Production-Living-Ecological Space in Nanchang Based on CLUE-S Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2021,28(04):325.
[3]杨晓玲,丁文魁,孙占峰,等.近60年河西走廊东部气象干旱演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(01):242.
YANG Xiaoling,DING Wenkui,SUN Zhanfeng,et al.Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Eastern Hexi Corridor During Recent 60 Years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(04):242.
[4]李 琛,吴映梅,高彬嫔.滇中城市群城镇化与资源环境承载力耦合协调研究[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(02):389.
LI Chen,WU Yingmei,GAO Binpin.Research on Coupling and Coordination of Urbanization and Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity in City Agglomeration of Central Yunnan[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2022,29(04):389.
[5]王兆林,张露洋,钟溦懿,等.三峡库区生态空间脆弱性时空演变特征[J].水土保持研究,2023,30(01):348.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.020]
WANG Zhaolin,ZHANG Luyang,ZHONG Weiyi,et al.Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Ecological Space Vulnerability in Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(04):348.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.01.020]
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-08-31 修回日期:2023-10-02
资助项目:甘肃省高等学校青年博士资助项目(2022QB-070); 甘肃农业大学科技创新基金——青年导师扶持资助项目(GAU-QDFC-2021-16); 甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5NA015); 甘肃省青年科技基金计划项目(21JR7RA854); 甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广项目(23GSLK092)
第一作者:周敏(1998—),女,山东安丘人,在读博士研究生,研究方向为水文与水资源。E-mail:1627146937@qq.com
通信作者:孙栋元(1978—),男,甘肃民乐人,博士,教授级高级工程师,主要从事水文水资源与干旱区水土资源教学和科研工作。E-mail:sundy@gsau.edu.cn