Li Jinghao,Liu Shujun,Wang Zhijie.Multi-scenario Simulation of Spatiotemporal Changes of Land Use Pattern and Ecosystem Services in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Based on FLUS and InVEST Models[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(03):287-298.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.03.004]
基于FLUS和InVEST模型的云贵高原土地利用与生态系统服务时空变化多情景模拟研究
- Title:
- Multi-scenario Simulation of Spatiotemporal Changes of Land Use Pattern and Ecosystem Services in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau Based on FLUS and InVEST Models
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)03-0287-12
- Keywords:
- FLUS model; InVEST model; carbon storage; water yield; soil conservation
- 分类号:
- F301.2; X171.1
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探讨云贵高原不同情景下的土地利用与生态系统服务时空变化,为云贵高原土地利用空间格局优化、生态系统服务功能提升和可持续发展策略制定提供科学依据。[方法]以云贵高原为研究对象,以2001年、2010年和2020年3期MCD12Q1土地覆被数据为基础数据,辅以自然和社会经济数据,基于ArcGIS,FLUS模型和InVEST模型,模拟2030年、2040年和2050年自然发展情景、生态保护情景和耕地保护情景下的土地利用以及碳储量、产水量和土壤保持量3项生态系统服务功能时空分布格局。[结果](1)不同情景下云贵高原的土地利用变化以林地持续增加和草地持续减少为主要趋势; 耕地保护情景下,耕地面积最高可占总面积的10.38%; 生态保护情景下,林草面积在2050年可达总面积的90%。(2)3种情景下,云贵高原2020—2050年碳储量和土壤保持量均呈上升趋势,而产水量呈下降趋势。生态保护情景下,2050年碳储量预测值最高,为8.13×109 t; 产水量减少速率显著低于另外两种情景,降幅为0.46%。(3)宜昌市、普洱市和常德市等市州的生态系统服务供给能力较高; 而贵阳市、毕节市和安顺市等市州的生态系统服务供给能力较低。[结论]云贵高原2020—2050年整体生态系统服务供给能力较好,各项服务功能在不同情景下表现出较强的空间聚集性和异质性。云贵高原今后的生态系统服务管理和可持续发展中,应考虑不同生态系统服务功能的空间异质性以及林地面积持续增加可能带来的水资源失衡问题。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to explore the spatiotemporal changes of land use and ecosystem services under different development scenarios on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and to provide an important scientific basis for optimizing the spatial pattern of land use, improving the function of ecosystem services and formulating sustainable development strategies. [Methods] The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was taken as the research object. The MCD12Q1 land cover data of phases 2001, 2010 and 2020 were taken as the basic data, and the natural and socio-economic data were taken as the auxiliary data. Based on ArcGIS, FLUS model and InVEST model platform, the land use pattern change patterns of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from 2001 to 2020 were analyzed. The spatiotemporal distribution pattern of land use and the spatiotemporal changes of three ecosystem services function(carbon storage, water yield and soil conservation)were simulated under the Natural Development Scenario(NDS), Ecological Protection Scenario(EPS)and Farmland Protection Scenario(FPS)in 2030, 2040 and 2050. [Results](1)The main trend of land use structure in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau under different scenarios was the continuous increase of forestland and the continuous decrease of grassland. The farmland area can account for 10.38% of the total area under the FPS. The forestland and grassland area will reach 90% of the total area by 2050 under the EPS.(2)Under the three scenarios, the total carbon storage and soil conservation of ecosystem services in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from 2020 to 2050 show an increasing trend, while the total water yield shows a decreasing trend. Under the EPS, the predicted value of carbon storage in 2050 will be the highest, 8.13×109 t, and the reduction rate of water yield will be significantly lower than the other two scenarios, with a decrease of 0.46%.(3)Yichang, Pu'er and Changde have higher ecosystem services supply capacity. However, the supply capacity of ecosystem services in Guiyang, Bijie and Anshun is low. [Conclusion] The supply capacity of ecosystem services in the study area is better from 2020 to 2050, and all service functions show strong spatial aggregation and heterogeneity under different scenarios. When formulating strategies for ecosystem service management and sustainable development in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, the spatial differentiation characteristics of different ecosystem service functions and the water shortage caused by the continuous increase of forest area should be considered.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-07-03 修回日期:2023-07-26
资助项目:国家自然科学基金项目“喀斯特城市景观格局时空演变及其对山体植物多样性影响的尺度效应”(42061039); 贵州大学培育项目“喀斯特山地城市生物多样性维持的景观恢复力机制研究”(贵大培育[2020]46)
第一作者:李井浩(2001—),男,重庆开州人,硕士研究生,主要从事景观与区域生态研究。E-mail:3354546236@qq.com
通信作者:王志杰(1986—),男,甘肃会宁人,博士,教授,主要从事景观与区域生态、山地生物多样性保护研究。E-mail:zjwang3@gzu.edu.cn