Lan Guiwen,Zhang Fan,Wu Jing,et al.Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Dynamic Simulation of Production-Living-Ecology Function in Lijiang River Watershed[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(02):431-442.
漓江流域“三生”功能时空分异特征及动态模拟
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Dynamic Simulation of Production-Living-Ecology Function in Lijiang River Watershed
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)02-0431-12
- Keywords:
- production-living-ecology function; scenario simulation; PLUS model; Lijiang River watershed
- 分类号:
- F301.2
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]揭示漓江流域“三生”功能时空分布动态变化特征,模拟预测自然发展、生态保护情景下漓江流域“三生”功能指数变化趋势,为喀斯特地区流域可持续发展提供决策参考。[方法]基于2010年、2015年及2020年漓江流域土地利用数据,采用重心模型及PLUS模型等方法,开展了“三生”功能重心迁移、“三生”功能指数时空变化及模拟研究。[结果](1)2010—2020年,生产、生活功能指数整体分别提升0.77%,23.85%,高值区分别集中在低海拔地区和桂林市区; 生态功能指数整体下降1.39%,高值区沿高海拔地区分布。(2)2010—2020年,“三生”功能变化幅度的大小为生产功能<生活功能<生态功能。其中,后阶段生产、生活功能增强区面积分别较前阶段上升了4.0%,11.6%,功能减弱区面积分别下降了3.2%,9.4%,生态功能增强区和减弱区面积则分别较前阶段下降16.4%和增加17.3%。(3)10年间,生产功能和生活功能重心整体上向西北方向移动,生态功能重心整体上向东南方向移动。(4)自然发展情景下,2030年生产、生活功能均值比2020年分别提升0.278,0.4,生态功能均值下降0.138; 生态保护情景下,2030年生产、生活、生态功能均值比2020年分别提升0.421,0.211,0.06。[结论]生产、生活功能整体上有所增强,生态功能则有所减弱,但生态功能的整体变化幅度最大。生态保护情景模拟结果更符合《桂林市国土空间总体规划(2021—2035)》发展目标。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to analyze the dynamic variation characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of the production-living-ecology function in the Lijiang River watershed, to predict its future change trend in the natural development scenario and the ecological protection scenario, respectively, and to provide a decision-making support for the sustainable development of the karst watershed. [Methods] With the land use data of Lijiang River Watershed of 2010, 2015 and 2020, the gravity center model was used to analyze the movement of the gravity centers of the production-living-ecology function, and the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model(PLUS)model was used to analyze and simulate spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the production-living-ecology function in the Lijiang River watershed. [Results](1)From 2010 to 2020, the index of production function(PF)and living function(LF)increased by 0.77% and 23.85%, respectively, and the areas with high-value of PF and LF concentrated in the lower elevations of the study area and Guilin urban area, respectively. The ecologly function(EF)index decreased by 1.39% over the same time period, and the area of high-value of EF distributed along high elevations.(2)The areas of enhanced PF and LF in the latter stage increased by 4.0% and 11.6% from the previous period, respectively, while the areas of weakened function decreased by 3.2% and 9.4% from the previous period, respectively. The areas of enhanced and weakened EF decreased by 16.4% and increased by 17.3% from the previous period, respectively.(3)In the past ten years, the centers of gravity of PF and LF moved to the northwest as a whole, while the center of gravity of EF moved to the southeast as a whole.(4)Compared with 2020, in the natural development scenario, the mean values of PF and LF in 2030 increased by 0.278 and 0.4, respectively, while the mean value of EF decreased by 0.138. In the ecological protection scenario, the mean values of PF, LF and EF in 2030 increased by 0.421, 0.211 and 0.06, respectively. [Conclusion] The PF and LF in the Lijiang River watershed had been enhanced overall, while the EF had been weakened, but the overall amplitude of change of EF was the largest among the three functions. The simulation results of ecological protection scenarios are more in line with the development goals of the Overall Territorial Space Plan of Guilin City(2021—2035).
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-04-04 修回日期:2023-05-05
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(41861050); 广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室资助课题项目(1404524-06,16-380-25-09)
第一作者:蓝贵文(1977—),男(瑶族),广西河池人,博士,教授,主要从事土地利用与区域发展研究。E-mail:23955461@qq.com