Hu Jixi,Le Xianwen,Xu Yong.Estimating Terrestrial Eco-System Carbon Stock Changes Caused by Multi-Scenarios Land-Use Changes Based on the FLUS Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(02):299-309.
基于FLUS模型多情景土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量影响——以江西萍乡为例
- Title:
- Estimating Terrestrial Eco-System Carbon Stock Changes Caused by Multi-Scenarios Land-Use Changes Based on the FLUS Model
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)02-0299-11
- Keywords:
- land use change; carbon neutrality; FLUS; scenario simulation; Pingxiang City
- 分类号:
- F301.24; X144
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]揭示萍乡碳储量时空分布特征,阐明土地地类变化与碳储量之间的关系,为探明区域生态系统碳储量状况提供数据支撑。[方法]利用FLUS(future land use simulation)模型与InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs)模型,预测了2030年萍乡市3种不同情景下(自然发展、耕地保护和生态优先)碳储量值。[结果](1)2010—2020年萍乡市碳储量整体呈下降趋势,共减少1.47×106t;(2)耕地、建设用地、草地、水体和建设用地面积增加和林地与灌木面积减少,是导致碳储量变化的主要原因;(3)2030年自然发展、耕地保护和生态优先情景下陆地生态系统碳储量分别约为4.906×107,4.919×107,5.038×107t,其中生态优先情景下碳储量损失最少。[结论]萍乡生态系统碳储量呈下降趋势,主要受耕地与建设用地增大的影响,未来应加强对安源区与经济开发区重点变化区域的监测研究。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] The aims of this study are to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Pingxiang, to clarify the relationship between land use change and carbon storage, and to provide data support for understanding the carbon storage status of the regional ecosystem. [Methods] The FLUS(future land use simulation)model and the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs)model were used to predict the carbon storage values under three different scenarios(natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority)in Pingxiang City in 2030. [Results](1)From 2010 to 2020 the carbon storage in Pingxiang City showed an overall decreasing trend with a total reduction of 1.47×106t.(2)The increase in farmland, construction land, grassland, water bodies, and construction land area, as well as the decrease in forest and shrub area were the main reasons for the changes in carbon storage.(3)In 2030, under the scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological priority, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Pingxiang City will be approximately 4.906×107, 4.919×107 and 5.038×107t, respectively, with the least carbon storage loss observed in the ecological priority scenario. [Conclusion] The carbon storage of the Pingxiang ecosystem is declining mainly due to the increase in farmland and construction land. In the future, monitoring and research should be strengthened in key areas of change in Anyuan District and the Economic Development Zone.
参考文献/References:
[1] Sha Z Y, Bai Y F, Li R R, et al. The global carbon sink potential of terrestrial vegetation can be increased substantially by optimal land management[J]. Communications Earth & Environment, 2022,3(1):8.
[2] Figueres C, Schellnhuber H J, Whiteman G, et al. Three years to safeguard our climate[J]. Nature, 2017,546(7660):593-595.
[3] Fu B, Li B G, Gasser T, et al. The contributions of individual countries and regions to the global radiative forcing[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021,118(15):e2018211118.
[4] 朴世龙,何悦,王旭辉,等.中国陆地生态系统碳汇估算:方法、进展、展望[J].中国科学:地球科学,2022,52(6):1010-1020.
Piao S L, He Y, Wang X H, et al. Carbon sequestration estimation of terrestrial ecosystem in China: Method, progress and prospect[J]. Scientia Sinica(Terrae), 2022,52(6):1010-1020.
[5] Piao S L, Huang M T, Liu Z, et al. Lower land-use emissions responsible for increased net land carbon sink during the slow warming period[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2018,11(10):739-743.
[6] Chang X Q, Xing Y Q, Wang J Q, et al. Effects of land use and cover change(LUCC)on terrestrial carbon stocks in China between 2000 and 2018[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2022,182:106333.
[7] 王天福,龚直文,邓元杰.基于土地利用变化的陕西省植被碳汇提质增效优先区识别[J].自然资源学报,2022,37(5):1214-1232.
Wang T F, Gong Z W, Deng Y J. Identification of priority areas for improving quality and efficiency of vegetation carbon sinks in Shaanxi Province based on land use change[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022,37(5):1214-1232.
[8] 张斌,李璐,夏秋月,等.基于土地利用的武汉城市圈生态系统服务权衡/协同分析[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(4):377-386.
Zhang B, Li L, Xia Q Y, et al. Trade off/synergy analysis of ecosystem services in Wuhan City circle based on land use[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022,29(4):377-386.
[9] 张斌,李璐,夏秋月,等.“三线”约束下土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响:以武汉城市圈为例[J].生态学报,2022,42(6):2265-2280.
Zhang B, Li L, Xia Q Y, et al. Land use change and its impact on carbon storage under the constraints of “three lines”: A case study of Wuhan City circle[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(6):2265-2280.
[10] Zhu G F, Qiu D D, Zhang Z X, et al. Land-use changes lead to a decrease in carbon storage in arid region, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2021,127:107770.
[11] 向书江,张骞,王丹,等.近20年重庆市主城区碳储量对土地利用/覆被变化的响应及脆弱性分析[J].自然资源学报,2022,37(5):1198-1213.
Xiang S J, Zhang Q, Wang D, et al. Response and vulnerability analysis of carbon storage to LUCC in the main urban area of Chongqing during 2000—2020[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022,37(5):1198-1213.
[12] 刘晓娟,黎夏,梁迅,等.基于FLUS-InVEST模型的中国未来土地利用变化及其对碳储量影响的模拟[J].热带地理,2019,39(3):397-409.
Liu X J, Li X, Liang X, et al. Simulating the change of terrestrial carbon storage in China based on the FLUS-InVEST model[J]. Tropical Geography, 2019,39(3):397-409.
[13] 侯建坤,陈建军,张凯琪,等.基于InVEST和GeoSoS-FLUS模型的黄河源区碳储量时空变化特征及其对未来不同情景模式的响应[J].环境科学,2022,43(11):5253-5262.
Hou J K, Chen J J, Zhang K Q, et al. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River based on InVEST and GeoSoS-FLUS Models and its response to different future scenarios[J]. Environmental Science, 2022,43(11):5253-5262.
[14] 邵壮,陈然,赵晶,等.基于FLUS与InVEST模型的北京市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测[J].生态学报,2022,42(23):9456-9469.
Shao Z, Chen R, Zhao J, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Beijing's ecosystem based on FLUS and InVEST models[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(23):9456-9469.
[15] 陈理庭,蔡海生,张婷,等.基于Markov-FLUS模型的饶河流域土地利用多情景模拟分析[J].生态学报,2022,42(10):3947-3958.
Chen L T, Cai H S, Zhang T, et al. Land use multi-scenario simulation analysis of Rao River based on Markov-FLUS model[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(10):3947-3958.
[16] Tian L, Tao Y, Fu W X, et al. Dynamic simulation of land use/cover change and assessment of forest ecosystem carbon storage under climate change scenarios in Guangdong Province, China[J]. Remote Sensing, 2022,14(10):2330.
[17] Nie X, Lu B, Chen Z P, et al. Increase or decrease: Integrating the CLUMondo and InVEST models to assess the impact of the implementation of the Major Function Oriented Zone planning on carbon storage[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2020,118:106708.
[18] Liu X P, Liang X, Li X, et al. A future land use simulation model(FLUS)for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2017,168:94-116.
[19] Yang J, Huang X. The 30 m annual land cover dataset and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2021,13(8):3907-3925.
[20] 虎帅,张学儒,官冬杰.基于InVEST模型重庆市建设用地扩张的碳储量变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(3):323-331.
Hu S, Zhang X R, Guan D J. Analysis on carbon storage change of construction land expansion in Chongqing based on InVEST model[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2018,25(3):323-331.
[21] Chen G Z, Li X, Liu X P, et al. Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. Nature Communications, 2020,11(1):537.
[22] 杨伟青,张会兰.基于GeoSOS-FLUS的涪江流域生态系统服务价值评估及多情景模拟[J].水土保持研究,2022,29(5):253-262.
Yang W Q, Zhang H L. Ecosystem service value assessment and multi-scenario simulation of Fujiang River based on GeoSOS-FLUS[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022,29(5):253-262.
[23] Zeng L, Liu X P, Li W H, et al. Global simulation of fine resolution land use/cover change and estimation of aboveground biomass carbon under the shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2022,312:114943.
[24] Li G D, Fang C L, Li Y J, et al. Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity[J]. Nature Communications, 2022,13(1):1628.
[25] Wang W L, Zhao S L, Jiao L M, et al. Estimation of PM2.5 concentrations in China using a spatial back propagation neural network[J]. Scientific Reports, 2019,9:13788.
[26] 刘丹丹.基于InVEST模型江西省土地利用变化的生态效应研究[D].南昌:江西师范大学,2021.
Liu D D. Research on Ecological Effects of Land Use Change in Jiangxi Province Based on InVEST Model[D]. Nanchang: Jiangxi Normal University, 2021.
[27] 刘咏梅,朱彦蓉.基于InVEST模型的长三角地区陆地生态系统固碳特征变化研究[J].南京晓庄学院学报,2020,36(6):82-90.
Liu Y M, Zhu Y R. Research of carbon storage changes in terrestrial ecosystems based on InVEST model in the Yangtze River Delta Region[J]. Journal of Nanjing Xiaozhuang University, 2020,36(6):82-90.
[28] Ke X L, Tang L P. Impact of cascading processes of urban expansion and cropland reclamation on the ecosystem of a carbon storage service in Hubei Province, China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2019,39(2):672-683.
相似文献/References:
[1]谭君,李世平.铜川市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):131.
TAN Jun,LI Shi-ping.Analysis on Impacts of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Service Value in Tongchuan City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):131.
[2]麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,海米提·依米提,组皮艳木·买买提,等.焉耆盆地土地利用变化对生态服务价值的影响[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):137.
Mamattursun·Eziz,Hamid·Yimit,Zulpiya·Mamat,et al.Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Yanqi Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):137.
[3]章后甜,杜会石,王世东,等.长白山地区土地利用及生态系统服务价值变化研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):242.
ZHANG Hou-tian,DU Hui-shi,WANG Shi-dong,et al.Study on the Land Use Change and Ecosystem Services Value in Changbai Mountain[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):242.
[4]张云鹏,孙燕,王小丽,等.不同尺度下的土地利用变化驱动力研究——以常州市新北区为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):111.
ZHANG Yun-peng,SUN Yan,WANG Xiao-li,et al.Study on the Driving Force of Land Use Change at Differernt Scales-A Case Study of the Xinbei District of Changzhou City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):111.
[5]侯兰功,乔标.北京市城市扩张及其生态效应研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(06):193.
HOU Lan-gong,QIAO Biao.Study on Urban Expansion and Its Ecological Effect in Beijing City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):193.
[6]陈颖,石培基,潘竟虎,等.高原生态城土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响研究——以甘肃省民乐县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):154.
CHEN Ying,SHI Pei-ji,PAN Jing-hu,et al.Analysis on the Effect of Land-use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in the Plateau Eco-city——A Case Study of Minle County[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):154.
[7]谢余初,巩杰,赵彩霞,等.干旱区绿洲土地利用变化的生态系统服务价值响应——以甘肃省金塔县为例[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(02):165.
XIE Yu-chu,GONG Jie,ZHAO Cai-xia,et al.Responses of Oasis Ecological Service Value to Land Use Change in Arid Area——A Case Study of Jinta County, Gansu Province[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):165.
[8]鄢铁平,廖炜,李璐,等.丹江口库区土地利用结构与格局优化[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):11.
YAN Tie-ping,LIAO Wei,LI Lu,et al.Optimization of Land Use Structure and Spatial Pattern for the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):11.
[9]柯新利,韩冰华,刘蓉霞,等.1990年以来武汉城市圈土地利用变化时空特征研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):76.
KE Xin-li,HAN Bing-hua,LIU Rong-xia,et al.Study on Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Land Use Change in Wuhan Metropolitan Area Since 1990[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):76.
[10]刘金花,郑新奇.全运会对济南市城区土地利用变化的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(01):87.
LIU Jin-hua,ZHENG Xin-qi.Influence of the Eleventh National Games on Land Use Change of Building Area in Ji’nan City[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(02):87.
备注/Memo
收稿日期:2023-02-07 修回日期:2023-03-17
资助项目:江西省社会科学基金“萍乡市城乡融合发展对策研究”(21DQ14)
第一作者:胡佶熹(1981—),男,江西萍乡人,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为土地利用变化及生态效应分析。E-mail:hjx198118@163.com
通信作者:徐勇(1988—),男,湖南益阳人,博士,副教授,主要从事气候变化和植被覆盖反演研究。E-mail:yongxu@glut.edu.cn