Ren Jiancheng,Gu Shanqing,Lu Xiaoning.Regional Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Annual Precipitation in Shandong Province Based on REOF[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2024,31(01):224-231.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.01.018]
基于REOF分析的山东省年降水区域特征及趋势分析
- Title:
- Regional Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Annual Precipitation in Shandong Province Based on REOF
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2024)01-0224-08
- Keywords:
- precipitation; regional characteristics; rotating empirical orthogonal function; rescaled range analysis; Shandong Province
- 分类号:
- P426.6
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]探究山东省不同气候分区年降水量的时空特征,为该地区气候分析、防灾减灾提供更加区域性的参考依据。[方法]根据山东省95个国家地面气象观测站1991—2020年降水年值数据,首先对山东省年降水场进行气候分区,然后通过相关统计方法分析各分区降水的时空变化特征。[结果](1)山东省各降水模态降水偏少的年份更多,降水偏多的年份降水强度更大,年代际变化均较为明显,但各模态降水偏多偏少的年份分布及强度变化有所不同。(2)山东省年降水量大致由东南向西北递减,年降水场划分为东南沿海区(Ⅰ区)、西北平原区(Ⅱ区)和中部山地区(Ⅲ区)3个区域,各降水分区年降水均呈不显著增加趋势,趋势率各不相同,突变均不明显。(3)山东省各降水分区年降水量均具有较为明显的周期性特征,东南沿海区年降水场存在2个较为明显的能量中心,中心尺度均为2～3 a,未来变化具有强持续性; 西北平原区年降水场存在3个较为明显的能量中心,中心尺度分别为5～7 a,3 a和2～3 a,未来变化具有持续性; 中部山地区年降水场存在2个较为明显的能量中心,中心尺度分别为2～3 a,6 a,未来变化具有强持续性。[结论]山东省降水偏少的年份更多,降水偏多的年份降水强度更大,年降水场大致可分为3个分区,各分区年降水量均呈不显著增加趋势,均具有较为明显的周期性特征,且未来变化均具有持续性。
- Abstract:
- [Objective] Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of annual precipitation in different climate zones in Shandong Province is expected to provide a more regional reference basis for climate analysis, disaster prevention and reduction in the region. [Methods] According to the annual precipitation data of ground meteorological observatories in 95 countries of Shandong Province in the period from 1991 to 2020, the annual precipitation data in Shandong Province were divided into climate regions, and then the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation in each region were analyzed by using relevant statistical methods. [Results](1)In Shandong Province, there were more years with less precipitation modalities, and more precipitation intensity in years with more precipitation, and the interdecadal variation was obvious, but the distribution and intensity changes of years with more and less precipitation in each mode were different.(2)The annual precipitation in Shandong Province decreases from southeast to northwest. The annual precipitation data were divided into three regions: southeast coastal area(Zone I), northwest plain area(Zone Ⅱ)and central hilly area(Zone Ⅲ). The annual precipitation in each precipitation region showed no significant increase trend, with different trend rates and no obvious mutation.(3)The annual precipitation of each precipitation subarea in Shandong Province had obvious periodic characteristics. There were two obvious energy centers in the annual precipitation data of the southeast coastal area, with the central scale of 2～3 years, and the future change has strong sustainability. There were three obvious energy centers in the annual precipitation data in the northwest plain, with the central scales of 5～7 years, 3 a and 2～3 years, respectively. There were two obvious energy centers in the annual precipitation data in the central hilly region, with the central scales of 2～3 years and 6 years, respectively. The future changes are of strong sustainability. [Conclusion] Shandong Province has more years with less precipitation and more precipitation intensity, and the annual precipitation field can be roughly divided into three zones, and the annual precipitation in each region has obvious cyclical characteristics, and future changes are continuous.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-10-24 修回日期:2022-12-09
资助项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41401103); 山东省气象局科学研究项目(SDYBY2020-11)
第一作者:任建成(1984—),男,山东潍坊人,硕士,工程师,主要研究方向为农业气象、应用气象等。E-mail:19129512@qq.com
通信作者:谷山青(1983—),女,青海海东人,学士,工程师,主要研究方向为大气科学、大气探测等。E-mail:guoguo_shanqing@126.com