PAN Shan,HE Zhonghua,CHEN Lihui,et al.Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Guizhou Province in Recent 50 Years Based on Different Time Scales[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2023,30(03):279-288.[doi:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.03.033]
基于不同时间尺度的贵州省近50年气象干旱时空演化特征
- Title:
- Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Guizhou Province in Recent 50 Years Based on Different Time Scales
- 文章编号:
- 1005-3409(2023)03-0279-10
- 分类号:
- P426.616
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- [目的]基于气候因子分区条件下,分析贵州省不同区域在不同时间尺度下气象干旱的时空演变特征,可为干旱监测和预测、抗洪救灾提供理论依据。[方法]基于贵州省31个气象站点1970—2019年的逐月降水和气温数据,利用主成分分析讨论贵州省降水及气温变化特征,结合SPEI指数研究贵州近50年气象干旱时空演化规律。[结果](1)贵州近50年气温变化由东向西逐渐递增,即西部为气温极端变化和重度变化区、中部和东部为中度变化区、南部和北部边缘为轻度变化区; 贵州省降水变化由西向东逐渐递减,其中西部为极端变化和重度变化区、中部为重度变化区、东部为轻度变化及正常区;(2)贵州省近50年气象干旱强度中度变化区最大、其次是轻度变化区,重度变化区最小; 随着年代的递增及时间尺度增大,气象干旱逐渐增强,并呈现“峰—谷”交替现象,其中1970—1985年及1990—2000年为干旱“低谷”期、1985—1990年及2000—2019年为干旱“峰值”期;(3)贵州近50年逐月干旱频率以中低频为主,主要发生在贵州东部、南部及北部; 轻度变化与中度变化区70s干旱频率最小、变幅最大,10s干旱频率最大、变幅次之,其余年代干旱频率变化相对较小。[结论]气象干旱具有显著的时间尺度特征,干旱的时空演化是气候变化、流域地表及人类活动时空耦合的结果。
- Abstract:
- [Objective]Based on the climatic factor zoning conditions, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of meteorological drought in different regions of Guizhou Province at different time scales are analyzed, providing a theoretical basis for drought monitoring and prediction, flood control and disaster relief. [Method] Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 31 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province from 1970 to 2019, the variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in Guizhou Province were discussed by principal component analysis, based on SPEI Index, the temporal and spatial evolution of meteorological drought in Guizhou Province in recent 50 years was studied. [Results](1)The temperature change of Guizhou Province in recent 50 years gradually increased from east to west, that is, the western region was the extreme and severe temperature change region, the central and eastern regions were the moderate temperature change region, and the southern and northern edges were the mild temperature change region. Precipitation variation in Guizhou Province gradually decreased from west to east, with extreme and severe variation in the west, severe variation in the middle, and mild and normal variation in the east.(2)In Guizhou Province, the moderate change area of meteorological drought intensity in recent 50 years was the largest, followed by the mild change area, and the severe change area was the smallest. With the increase of time and time scale, meteorological drought gradually increased, and the phenomenon of ‘peak-valley' alternated. The period from 1970 to 1985 and 1990 to 2000 were the ‘trough' period of drought, and the period from 1985 to 1990 and 2000 to 2019 were the ‘peak' period of drought.(3)In recent 50 years, the monthly drought frequency in Guizhou is mainly medium-low frequency, mainly occurring in the east, south and north of Guizhou; In the areas with mild and moderate changes, the frequency of drought was the smallest and the amplitude was the largest in 70s, and the frequency of drought was the largest and the amplitude was the second in 10s. The variation of drought frequency in the rest years was relatively small. [Conclusion] The study shows that the climate drought has remarkable time-scale characteristics, and the spatial-temporal evolution of drought is the result of the coupling of climate change, watershed surface and human activities.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期:2022-04-23 修回日期:2022-05-07
资助项目:国家自然科学基金(u1612441,41471023); 贵州省水利厅自然科学项目(KT202237); 贵州师范大学2015年博士科研启动项目贵州省自然科学基金项目(黔科合基础-ZK[2023]重点028)
第一作者:潘杉(1996—),女,贵州德江人,硕士研究生,主要从事喀斯特水文水资源与遥感研究。E-mail:pan_shan77@163.com
通信作者:贺中华(1976—),男,贵州兴义人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事喀斯特水文水资源与遥感研究。E-mail:hezhonghua7621@126.com