[1]罗玉,秦宁生,周斌,等.1961-2016年长江源区径流量变化规律[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(05):123-128.
　LUO Yu,QIN Ningsheng,ZHOU Bin,et al.Change of Runoff in the Source Regions of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2016[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2019,26(05):123-128.
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1961-2016年长江源区径流量变化规律

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 26 期数: 2019年05期 页码: 123-128 栏目: 出版日期: 2019-09-06
Title:
Change of Runoff in the Source Regions of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2016
作者:
罗玉1,2, 秦宁生1,2, 周斌2, 李金建3, 刘佳2, 王春学2, 庞轶舒2
1. 中国气象局 成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都 610072;
2. 四川省气候中心, 成都 610072;
3. 成都信息工程大学, 成都 610225
Author(s):
LUO Yu1,2, QIN Ningsheng1,2, ZHOU Bin2, LI Jinjian3, LIU Jia2, WANG Chunxue2, PANG Yishu2
1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China;
2. Climate Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;
3. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
关键词:
长江源区; 径流; 年际变化; 年代际变化; 年内变化
Keywords:
source area of Yangtze River; runoff; inter-annual variation; inter-decadal variation; intra-annual variation
分类号:
X121.2
摘要:
利用长江源区沱沱河站和直达门站1961—2016年月平均径流量数据，运用滑动平均、累积距平曲线、集中期、集中度、滑动t检验、小波分析等方法指标，定性和定量相结合，统计分析了长江源区径流量的年际、年代际、年内、突变和周期变化特征。结果表明：长江源区1961—2016年径流量总体呈增加趋势。沱沱河站径流量集中度、相对变化幅度、年内分配不均匀系数高于直门达站。1996年是沱沱河站径流量发生显著突变的年份，2004年是直门达站径流量发生显著突变的年份。沱沱河站存在8～12 a和3～4 a的周期振荡特征，直门达站存在6～8 a和3～4 a左右的周期振荡特征。
Abstract:
Based on the runoff data of 56 years of the source regions of the Yangtze River, we used methods of moving average, accumulative departure curve and sliding t test,concentration degree (period), wavelet analysis, combined qualitative and quantitative analysis to summarize the characteristics of the inter-annual and intra-annual, inter-decadal, mutation, periodic changes. The results showed that:during the period 1961-2016, runoff in the source area of the Yangtze River generally presented the increasing trend, and the runoff in the upper reaches of the river was more significant than that in the lower reaches. In the Tuotuohe station, which is located at the upper reaches, the unevenness, concentration rate, relative variation rate and absolute ration rate were higher than that those in the Zhimenda station. Annual runoff mutation occurred in 1996 in Tuotuohe station and in 2004 at Zhimenda station. There are periodic oscillation characteristics of 8~12 years and 3~4 years at the Tuotuohe station, 6~8 years and 3~4 years at the Zhimenda station.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2018-09-28;改回日期:2018-12-05。
基金项目:国家自然基金“基于树木年轮的长江上游水系径流场重建及气候影响机制研究”（41772173）；四川省科技厅项目“若尔盖生态历史温湿配置演变及其可能机制研究”（2019YJ0620）
作者简介:罗玉(1989-),女,四川成都人,工程师,主要从事气候变化与气候预测研究。E-mail:Ida2008891229@163.com
通讯作者:秦宁生(1962-),男,河南商丘人,正研级高工,主要从事青藏高原气候研究。E-mail:qinns0515@163.com

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01